Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies winning pointer on handicap debut at Ludlow

• Much improved for front running tactics in points

• Three rules runs over hurdles for different trainer

• Bumpy Evans is overpriced at Ludlow

Ludlow - 14:25 - Back Bumpy Evans

Bumpy Evans is racing from 10lb out of the handicap on his chasing and handicap debut at Ludlow but given that he has the potential to be significantly better than his opening mark, I think the market is underestimating his chance.

He started his career with Ben Lund and showed very little ability in three starts in maiden/novice hurdles before joining Tim Vaughan. He failed to complete on his first two starts for Vaughan in points before finishing second at High Easter. He was initially held up that day but pulled his way to the front on the first circuit and stayed there until being caught on the run-in.

They decided to abandon the idea of trying to hold him up next time at Godstone and let him stride on in front from the off. He was clear of the field with a circuit to go and was never remotely in danger after that, winning by eleven lengths with a good performance on the clock.

On his latest start at Cherrybrook, he went a long way clear of the field early on and gradually extended the margin further and further on softening ground, eventually coming home 56 lengths clear of his nearest rival.

The quality of those two performances suggests that Bumpy Evans could be a fair bit better than the mark of 79 that he effectively runs off today and I think this is the right distance for him to be running over back under rules.

There is a bit of a concern over his jumping, given that it wasn't too convincing at times in points, and maybe he will just turn out to be one of those horses who doesn't transfer their point form to racing under rules. However, I think he is still overpriced given just how well treated he could be and any 3/14.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Thursday tips here.