Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies sprinter back down in trip at Musselburgh

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Unsuitable ground of late

• Last Outlaw is overpriced at Musselburgh

Musselburgh - 16:00 - Back Last Outlaw

Last Outlaw was well beaten at Leicester last time but there were excuses for that run and I think he could bounce back in a race that is very likely to be run to suit him at Musselburgh.

He was a bit awkwardly away at Leicester and never looked happy on the track, with the quick ground also not seeming ideal for him. It was a similar story on his previous run at Lingfield when he shifted around when coming under pressure before running on to finish third in a small field.

That small field and fairly steady pace wasn't ideal for him whereas the likely strong pace in this race should set the race up well to give him a chance to close late. While I think he might be ideally suited by softer ground than he gets today, at least it's slower than has been the case on all three starts since joining Michael Keady and Last Outlaw's action suggests he will appreciate that.

He will need some luck in running and a repeat of his antics at the start last time wouldn't help his cause but I think the market is underestimating his potential to bounce back in these circumstances and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Tuesday tips here.