Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Run to benefit from class drop at Ballinrobe

Ballinrobe
Our racing expert has five selections on Friday

Our resident tipster has analysed Friday's racing and has five selections at Downpatrick and Ballinrobe...

  • Dropping down in class

  • Likely good pace to suit

  • Benefit Run is overpriced at Ballinrobe


Downpatrick - 14:15 - Back Sally's Cave

This is a weak maiden hurdle and Nt Field Minnesota heads the market. She was beaten at a very short price on her rules debut in a bumper and while I think she's capable of being better than she showed that day, I'm not sure the likely testing ground after the forecast rain today will be ideal for her.

At a huge price, I think Sally's Cave has a better chance than the market suggests. She looked clueless on debut over this C&D when she regularly lost ground at the hurdles but she was still in touch at the back of the field until stumbling badly on landing at two out and her chance was gone after that.

Her jumping was hesitant once again in the first half of the race on her second start at Down Royal and she was detached from the main group on the long run to three out. She was shaken along and ran around before she finally realised what was required of her and she made a little late headway.

I think that was a stronger race than the one Sally's Cave contests today and she will hopefully be sharper for the experience of her first two starts and can now be competitive at this level. The soft ground is also likely to suit her and she could take a significant step forward from her first two runs.

It may turn out that she is still too green to show her ability or that she needs further and handicaps for that to come out but I can't let her go unbacked at this price in a race of this quality and any 33/134.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Sally's Cave in the 14:15 at Ballinrobe 0.5pt e/w at 80/181.00

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Downpatrick - 16:35 - Back Trishknowsbest

With those at the front of the market having some questions to answer in this beginners chase, I've gone to the opposite end of the market with a couple of horses that have chasing experience whose chance I think has been overlooked.

Trishknowsbest is inconsistent but she took a heavy fall when last seen at Killarney but if she turns up at her best I think she has a chance in a race of this quality.

Prior to falling last time, she has travelled well into contention at the end of the back straight but was in the process of not seeing out the 2m5f trip when coming down.

She was never competitive on her debut for her new yard at this track over hurdles when never put into the race and her form towards her time with her previous yard wasn't great but she ran well in testing conditions at Cork at the start of the year when cruising to the front before not quite seeing out the trip.

I think it's a positive that they are taking off the hood today back over this shorter trip and the testing ground will be no issue for her whereas it may be a concern for some of her rivals. The removal of the hood could also be a sign that they might use more positive tactics in a race where few of these usually race handily.

It may be that she puts in another of her poor runs or that the fall last time will have left its mark but she looks overpriced in a race of this nature given her ability and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Trishknowsbest in the 16:35 at Ballinrobe 0.5pt e/w at 22/123.00

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Downpatrick - 16:35 - Back Chelseas Friend

At an even bigger price, I think Chelseas Friend is overpriced now taking a significant step down in trip.

She clearly didn't see out the 3m1f trip at Wexford last time and didn't quite see out the 2m5½f at Wexford on her previous start when she was in contention leaving the back straight for the final time before being left behind by the front pair and finishing third.

She showed last year that she's capable of running well over a shorter trip in testing conditions when she finished a close third at Wexford in a beginners chase on heavy ground behind Nelly's Money and this is the first time since then that she's running over a trip shorter than 2m4f.

I'm hoping the drop back in trip will see a better performance from Chelseas Friend and she's been ridden fairly handily over this trip in the past so a repeat of those tactics would help her chance today. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Chelseas Friend in the 16:35 at Ballinrobe 0.5pt e/w at 30/131.00

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Ballinrobe - 18:30 - Back Benefit Run

Benefit Run hasn't won since September 2020 but I think he has a good chance to break that very long losing run at Ballinrobe this evening, taking a big class drop from his latest start over fences.

That was at Galway two starts ago where he raced from 19lb out of the handicap. He raced quite handily from the off and went into a narrow lead turning out of the back straight for the final time on the run to two out. He jumped the last in a share of the lead before fading away on the climb to the line to finish eighth.

That was a more encouraging run over fences from Benefit Run after his two previous starts in that sphere were disappointing and he wasn't disgraced on his latest start over hurdles at Sligo.

I think the handicapper has been generous in dropping him to 105, his lowest ever rating over fences, and he now finds himself in a much weaker race than the majority he's been contesting over fences in his career. The likely good pace should also suit him in helping him to be able to deliver a late challenge and the first time blinkers could also bring more out of him.

There is a concern that he jumps out to the left at times and he's clearly not the easiest to win with but he looks overpriced on the big class drop and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals.

Back Benefit Run in the 18:30 at Ballinrobe 1pt win at 14/115.00

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Ballinrobe - 19:00 - Back Sharp Object

Sharp Object makes her rules debut this evening after being bought for £42,000 by John McConnell following her point debut at Tattersalls Farm.

She was held up and frequently jumped hesitantly on the first circuit, which left her detached on occasions. She moved into the main pack with a circuit to go and was one of a tightly-packed group of six at the front going to three out. She had a wall of horses in front of her approaching two out and had to be switched out to get a run but the leaders had quickened away. She was in fifth turning the final bend and ran a bit green when asked for her effort but she ran on well to finish second.

Given her jumping early on in the race likely cost her victory, I think the switch to racing in a bumper could see Sharp Object in a better light and this isn't an overly strong race for her rules debut. She also has a good 7lb claiming amateur in the saddle and any 9/43.25 or bigger appeals.

Back Sharp Object in the 19:00 at Ballinrobe 1pt win at 5/23.50

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Read Daryl Carter's Friday tips here.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 189.50pts

Returned: 210.72pts

P/L: +21.22pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.