Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 7/2 O'Brien chaser on stable debut at Worcester

• First start for new yard

• Looks a weak contest

• Lusitanien is overpriced at Worcester

Worcester - 13:50 - Back Lusitanien

Chief Black Robe racked up four wins in a row for the same connections as Lusitanien and while this stable debutant may not follow that horse in going up over 30lb in four runs, I think he has a good chance to get off the mark this afternoon at Worcester.

Lusitanien started his career with Evan Williams and showed some ability before being sold for £12,000 to join Ewan Whillans in January last year.

He initially showed some promise for his new yard, with an encouraging run at Carlisle on stable debut, and ran respectably on a few more occasions last year. But since returning from an absence this year, his form has generally been on a sharp decline.

He did show a bit more two starts ago over three miles at Perth when only fading in the closing stages but his latest start over the same C&D was poor.

Lusitanien has since been bought for £2,000 and now makes a positive trainer switch in joining Fergal O'Brien. He's racing off a 20lb lower mark than when he first joined Ewan Whillans and this is likely to be a more suitable distance for him than the three miles he was racing over in his last two starts.

There is a concern over his wind given that he had a wind op when with Whillans. He seemed to initially benefit a little for a tongue tie, which he doesn't wear today, and it may be that he's just not the horse he was after that long absence prior to returning this year.

However, given the very weak nature of this race and the potential for a significant resurgence given the trainer he's now joined, I think Lusitanien is a little overpriced and any 3/14.00 or bigger appeals.

Read Daryl Carter's Tuesday tips here.