Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Flower to bloom at Leopardstown

• Sets the standard on French Champion Hurdle run

• Return to shorter trip shouldn't be an issue

• July Flower is overpriced at Leopardstown

Leopardstown - 13:20 - Back July Flower

July Flower was very disappointing in both starts in Britain, including one for Henry de Bromhead, but the ability she's shown over hurdles in France suggests she could run better than her price suggests in this Grade 3.

Following two victories in AQPS flat races, she was bought and joined de Bromhead for one run in which she was well held in the mares bumper at Aintree.

Her owner sent her to Mickael Seror after that and she won her first two starts over hurdles before running well in defeat in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier. They took her back to Aintree after that for the Formby Novices' Hurdle but she was never going particularly well with the hood reapplied and she was pulled up.

While July Flower failed to win in four starts this year, she ran well behind Losange Bleu when making up plenty of late ground on her second start of the year and she put in a fine effort in defeat in the French Champion Hurdle when finishing third. I think the quality of that performance sets the standard in this contest and the ability that she has shown over shorter trips suggests that she should be able to cope with the drop back in trip today.

July Flower was bought for £350,000 after that run and is now back with de Bromhead. It may turn out that she is simply one of those horses who performs better in France than in Britain or Ireland and she won't run up to the best of her form for Seror but I think she's overpriced in a race of this quality given what she's been capable of at her best and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Alan Dudman's Sunday tips here.