Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams backs 7/1 Dance Rules at Uttoxeter

• Selection showed ability on point debut

• Sharper test could bring improvement

• Dance Rules is overpriced w/o the fav at Uttoxeter

Uttoxeter - 16:33 - Back Dance Rules w/o the fav

Valsad is a very short-priced favourite for the opening novices' hurdle at Uttoxeter and he will be tough to beat even if just repeating the level of his hurdling debut. Rather than take him on, I think there's an appealing option in the without the favourite market.

Guard Duty heads that market and he ran quite well on hurdling debut at Ffos Las. It's understandable that a hood is now going on, having raced keenly, but the ground is a concern for him. Virtual Rock has concerns over the ground and, while he was a very talented horse on the flat in France, it was concerning that he was sold so cheaply last year given his ability.

Dance Rules was bought for €48,000 to join Tim Vaughan after his point debut where he showed promise in defeat. He raced in midfield before gradually easing closer to the leaders on the extremely long run to two out and he jumped that fence in a leading line of three. He took sole possession of the lead approaching the last and appeared to have the race won only to find little on the run-in. He was beaten a neck into second.

The manner in which Dance Rules travelled through that race suggests that a drop back in trip would suit him and, although I would prefer 2m4f rather than 2m for him, the softening ground could help him on that front. He should also be more mentally mature for that experience and they have found a race that doesn't look to have much depth in quality for his rules debut.

It may be that today will be another step in his education and it will be over a bit further down the line that he shows his full ability, but I think he's overpriced given the doubts over others. Any 5/16.00 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Now read Daryl Carter's Tuesday tips here