Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies a handicap debutant at Newton Abbot

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Returning to quicker ground over hurdles

• Breccia is overpriced at Newton Abbot

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Newton Abbot - 17:05 - Back Breccia

14

Breccia

• J: Sean Houlihan
• T: Robert Stephens
• F:

The bare form of Breccia's three runs over hurdles last season is poor but she showed more promise than the result suggests in the middle of those three and I think the circumstances of today's handicap debut could see her in a better light.

She ran fairly well in a poor race on hurdling debut at Exeter when making up plenty of ground going up the hill in the back straight but she couldn't sustain that progress late on and finished third.

At Ludlow next time, she went to the front early on and stayed there until fading quickly once turning into the home straight with a bad mistake at three out not helping her cause.

Breccia ran terribly on her last start over hurdles at Exeter but given that she was off the track for 274 days after that, it could be that she had a problem that day. The ground there and at Ludlow was soft, which I think isn't ideal for her, and she ran well on her comeback on the flat on good ground earlier this month.

She was ridden quite patiently that day and I'm hoping those tactics are repeated today as this race looks likely to be strongly run so it could set up well for a late closer.

It might be that Breccia just doesn't see out the trip over hurdles and she is racing from 6lb out of the handicap but I think this race is likely to present an opportunity for her to show her best in this sphere and any double-figure prices appeal.

Now read Mark Milligan's Saturday tips here.