Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 40/1 Kilkee to spring a surprise at Ayr

• Showed promise early on

• Longer trip and softer ground to suit

• Kilkee Royal is overpriced at Ayr

Ayr - 15:00 - Back Kilkee Royal

Kilkee Royal hasn't been competitive in four starts under rules so far but I think he could find this a more suitable test and improve on what he's shown so far.

He started his career in the Irish pointing field and ran well on debut behind subsequent bumper winner Check The Score when he travelled well until being unable to go with the winner after turning out of the back straight. Kilkee Royal fell next time before once again showing promise on his third and final start in that sphere in very testing conditions at Portrush where he was upsides Neo King at two out before weakening to finish third.

Plenty went wrong for him on his rules and hurdling debut at Down Royal when he was hampered and shuffled back towards the back of the field early on, made a bad mistake at three out and couldn't seem to get a clear run at any stage after jumping two out.

His three subsequent runs haven't been so encouraging but he's just looked short of the speed required to get competitive having been held up and I think the ground may have been quicker than ideal for him too.

I think today's test of a longer trip and soft ground could see Kilkee Royal take a step forward from what he's shown so far under rules and build on the promise early in his career and this doesn't look a particularly strong race for the grade.

It might be that he's had problems that mean he isn't as good as he once was or he's more at home going a slower tempo in points but I think he's overpriced given his potential for improvement and any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

Read Daryl Carter's Friday tips here.