Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 33/1 filly to spring a surprise at Longchamp

• Eyecatching run behind Zarigana last time

• Wide draw not so much of a negative for her

• Godspeed is overpriced at Longchamp

Longchamp - 12:58 - Back Mgheera

The opening Group 3 sprint at Longchamp is likely to be strongly run with quite a few horses having the early speed to take on Ponntos from the start and I think that could suit a mare having her first start for a new trainer.

Mgheera finished behind Pradaro and Electric Storm over C&D last season when not getting a clear run from the back of the field and she was beaten a short margin into fifth. Earlier in the year, she had shown a liking for better ground when winning a Listed race at Chantilly very easily so the drying ground today will be in her favour.

She also has the benefit of having a positive trainer switch having joined Ed Walker and the fairly small field size should make it easier for her to get a clear path through. There is the unknown over how she will take to racing without her usual cheekpieces but I think the market is underestimating her chance and any 7/18.00 or bigger appeals.

Longchamp - 13:33 - Back Flaming Stone

Audubon Park is the odds-on favourite for the Prix Saint-Alary on the back of two impressive victories but I think she faces more of a threat from Flaming Stone than the market suggests.

Flaming Stone started her career with Andrew Balding and ran to a good level for him before being switched to Henri-Francois Devin for this season. On her first start for Devin at Saint Cloud, she picked up well for pressure to beat Iron Bird in a Listed race. She was strong through the line that day and stepped up on that form on her latest start at Longchamp when stepped up a furlong in trip. She tracked Mandanaba from the off and while she could never quite get upsides that rival, Flaming Stone pressured her all the way to the line.

I think the quality of that run is as good as what Audubon Park has shown so far and while that rival could well have more to offer, if Flaming Stone settles in this small field I think she can put up more of a challenge to the favourite than the market suggests. Any 3/14.00 or bigger appeals.

Longchamp - 15:25 - Back Heybetli

The Poule d'Essai des Poulains looks a wide-open contest and I think one of those who was beaten in a trial for this could run well at a big price.

Heybetli finished fourth behind Ridari in the Prix de Fontainebleau but I think he can at least get closer to that rival today. He didn't break too badly from the stalls but his jockey was set on holding him up at the back of the field and he raced keenly under restraint. He was shaken along entering the straight and his jockey took the wrong option in trying to go outside for a gap and the path was blocked on a couple of occasions. Once switched inside, he got a clear run but could only run on to finish fourth.

The larger field and likely stronger pace today will hopefully see Heybetli settle better in the early stags and it's a positive jockey switch with Stephane Pasquier taking over so I'm hoping to see a better ride than was the case last time. It might be that Heybetli isn't quite up to this level but I think he could improve on what he's shown so far and any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

Longchamp - 16:05 - Back Godspeed

Zarigana is a short-priced favourite for the Prix d'Essai des Pouliches but it's a filly who finished behind her in the Prix de la Grotte last time who appeals at the prices against her.

Godspeed was an impressive winner on debut on the all weather at Chantilly in by far the closest thing she's had to a truly run race. Her two starts since having been in a very slowly run races over a mile and she's been poorly positioned and unsuited by the test on both occasions. In the latest of them over today's C&D, a hood went on for the first time and after breaking a bit slowly she raced at the back of the field. She was still in last with a furlong to go before finishing strongly to take third.

There is a concern that while she faces a bigger field today, this might not be overly strongly run but I would expect it to be nearer the tempo of her debut race than the two races Godspeed has contested since and that should suit her. Being drawn widest in stall 13 may not be ideal but it's less of a concern for her given her hold up style of racing and it may allow her to have a better chance of getting a clear run from the back on the outside. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Sunday tips here.