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Hurdling debutant fancied at Downpatrick
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His Finest Hour likely to be favourably positioned
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Havana Miss can spring a surprise at 30/131.00
This looks a weak mares maiden hurdle and the market is overlooking the chance of Whispering Willow on her hurdling debut.
She looked a non-stayer while showing a bit of promise in points and built on that with an encouraging rules debut in a bumper at Galway. She was held up and raced quite keenly on the inside early on and was still towards the back turning out of the back straight.
Angled to the outside, she travelled well and made headway going into the dip but was then hampered a little and pushed very wide on the bend. After that, she was hampered again and couldn't make progress in finishing eighth.
That wasn't a particularly strong race and the same can be said of this contest. The way that Whispering Willow travelled through her previous race suggests she has some ability and that this trip will suit on her hurdling debut. Any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.
Back Whispering Willow in the 14:17 at Downpatrick 0.5pt e/w
His Finest Hour was comfortably held at Epsom last time but that was on softer ground and the return to quick ground gives him a good chance of gaining a third victory.
He beat a couple of next time out winners at Newbury three starts ago over this trip on quick ground. Stepped up in trip next time, he travelled well to the front before not seeing out the trip. Last time at Epsom, the ground was on the soft side and that didn't suit him, so he did well to finish as close to Carnival Day as he did.
The return to quick ground today will suit His Finest Hour and he's racing off a 2lb lower mark. This race is also likely to be fairly steadily run so he's likely to be favourably positioned, either in a solo lead or near the front.
This is a step back up in class for His Finest Hour but I think he can cope with that and could have more to come under these conditions on only his ninth start. Any 7/24.50 or bigger appeals.
Back His Finest Hour in the 15:45 at Haydock 1pt win
This is a weak maiden with Polygram and Eliza Bennet dominating the market but one of their rivals could be more of a danger than the market suggests.
Havana Miss was never in contention on her belated debut but she showed some promise and the step up in trip is likely to bring improvement from her. The debut was over five furlongs at Leicester and she was very slowly away and detached from the main pack. She raced greenly through the first half of the race but gradually got the idea of what was required of her and finished strongly, clocking the quickest final furlong.
I'm expecting Havana Miss to be sharper in the early stages today and the two furlong step up in trip is likely to suit given her breeding and what she showed at Leicester. She has the potential to take a significant step forward from the bare form of that race.
There is a concern that if she's slowly away again her chance will be severely compromised but I think the market has overlooked her chance in a weak race and any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.
Back Havana Miss in the 16:37 at Wolverhampton 0.5pt e/w
Balon d'Or races away from Chester for the first time since his seasonal debut in this five-furlong handicap and he's capable of taking advantage of a sliding mark.
On that seasonal debut at Musselburgh, he was quickly away before being hampered a little and dropped back to midfield. He was behind the leaders when coming under pressure with just over a furlong to go but couldn't get a clear run until late. He made some headway to finish seventh.
His four runs since have been at Chester and, while he's run very well there in the past, I'm not sure that test is still ideal for him and it's easy to forgive his last run when he was poorly positioned in a slowly run race.
Balon d'Or is now racing off a 9lb lower mark than at Musselburgh and the return to a straight five furlongs in a strongly run race could bring out the best in him. There is the unknown over how he will react to headgear coming off but I think the market is underestimating him and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.
Back Balon d'Or in the 17:15 at Wolverhampton 0.5pt win