Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 Rock to Danse to victory to Chepstow

• Ran in strong point when last seen

• Not an overly strong maiden hurdle

• Rock Danse is overpriced at Chepstow

Chepstow - 12:55 - Back Rock Danse

While there are plenty of runners in division two of the maiden hurdle, I'm not sure it's as strong a race as it may first appear and there's an ex-Irish pointer who appeals at a big price on his return from a long absence.

Rock Danse hasn't been seen since December 2021 but in that run at Corbeagh House he showed a level of ability that suggests he could be more competitive today than the market suggests.

He was poorly positioned around a speed favouring track and his jumping lacked fluency at various times, most notably when the pace quickened down the back straight on the final circuit. That meant he could never quite get into a challenging position but he kept going well enough to be beaten eight lengths in seventh.

That was a good maiden with the winner, second and fifth now rated 133, 136 and 139 over hurdles respectively while the eighth is now rated 120 in that sphere.

Rock Danse's performance can be marked up due to him being unfavourably positioned at the back of the field and his jumping. He's since joined a very good yard and if he can run to that level again then he will have a good chance in this race.

There is obviously the concern over his long absence since that run and it might be that he doesn't have the ability he once had or that he will need the run but I think he has the best piece of Irish point form of any runners in this race and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.

Chepstow 16:16 - Back Itseemslikeit w/o the fav

The market hasn't missed Captain Bellamy in the bumper following a highly impressive debut performance at Dromahane and he's going to be tough to beat. Rather than take him on, there's another ex-pointer who appeals in the without the favourite market.

Itseemslikeit only finished third on his debut at Loughrea but he threw away victory that day on the final bend. He travelled strongly throughout and was going best turning out of the back straight but he completely failed to handle the final bend and hung left, which resulted in him falling back into fourth place with a short straight ahead of him.

Once straightened up, he started to close and he was still a couple of lengths down at the last before running on to only be narrowly beaten into third.

If Itseemslikeit had taken the final bend smoothly, I expect he would have won comfortably and likely wouldn't be a double-figure price in the without the favourite market due to have a '1' against his name.

There is a slight concern that this might not be an ideal track for him and he is going to be seen at his best over fences in the long term but the ability he showed on debut suggests he can be competitive in this race and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Read Daryl Carter's NAP on Tuesday here