Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 French import at Cheltenham

• Ran to a good level on debut

• Type to improve with time

• Mambonumberfive is overpriced at Cheltenham

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Cheltenham - 13:15 - Back Mambonumberfive

East India Dock is a short-priced favourite for the Grade 2 Triumph Trial at Cheltenham. He could be tough to beat given the manner of his victory last time and I don't think the different ground should be an issue for him but I think Mambonumberfive could be more of a danger than the market currently suggests.

One, two, three, four, five horses are currently between those two in the market (sorry, it was too obvious to resist). The first of those is Sauvignon who is another who makes his British debut. He won a Listed hurdle at Auteuil last time with a performance that can be seen two ways. In one way, he did well to win given he got warm beforehand and frequently jumped out to the right but, in another way, that jumping tendency has to be a concern today and it may be that previous entries at Kempton and Ascot were for a good reason.

Stencil is next in and is another who has only raced over hurdles in France. I thought he was quite impressive at Compiegne two starts ago but he is a very keen going horse and that characteristic let him down last time over the same C&D. It might be that they won't hold him up quite so far today but I worry that his temperament could be put more to the test today and it could be a repeat of Kloth Of Utopia at Newbury in that his demeanour beforehand may be a clue as to what is to come on the track.

Quantock Hills and Teriferma dead-heated over C&D last time but they need to step up again from that while the same is the case for Believitanducan who put in a good display on hurdling debut at Newbury but that leaves him with quite a bit to find.

Mambonumberfive also needs to step up to challenge the favourite but there are reasons to think he could run better than his price suggests. He ran a promising race on debut when finishing third at Auteuil to subsequent Finale Hurdle winner, Nietzsche Has. Mambonumberfive looked a bit green early on as he dropped to the back of the field with a circuit to go. He made some headway to be tracking the leading group in eighth leaving the back straight and was gently shaken along. His progress continued and he moved into a leading line of three jumping the last but he couldn't quite sustain his effort and finished third while not being given a particularly hard ride.

He didn't improve on that in his next two runs but he travelled well for a long way next time before fading and ran a decent race to finish second on his final start in France.

The key to his chance is that he's physically a chasing type so I expect he was very weak when running in those three races at Auteuil and he could take a significant step forward on his first start for Ben Pauling. His physique would also go a long way to explain why he went through the ring at the Arqana Summer Sale for €450,000 (although I'm not sure if there was an issue with the sale given the owner for today's race).

There is a concern that he might be vulnerable to sharper juvenile types and his true ability will come out over fences in time and I think he would ideally want better ground than he races on today but I think the market has overlooked his potential for improvement and any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Saturday tips here.