Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Brandon on seasonal debut at Navan

• Showed good level of ability on debut

• Excuse for poor run next time

• Brandon Creek is overpriced at Navan

Navan - 14:40 - Back Brandon Creek

Brandon Creek hasn't been seen since disappointing at Gowran in September but I think the market is underestimating his chance of making a winning return to action this afternoon at Navan.

He ran a promising race on debut at the Curragh when finishing sixth to Acapulco Bay. He raced a bit greenly in midfield early on after breaking slightly slowly before being switched to the outside at halfway. Shaken along on the outside, he made a little headway but couldn't quite show the necessary speed to put in a significant challenge while continuing to respond to pressure and was beaten just over four lengths into sixth. The first three home are now rated 95 or higher while the fifth was second next time out to the 101-rated Shackleton.

Brandon Creek was well beaten next time at Gowran but he was reported to have scoped poorly so that's an obvious reason for the bad run. He's been gelded since that run and they've found a race that doesn't seem to have much strength in depth for his return to action. If he can get back to the level that he showed on debut, I think Brandon Creek can be far more dangerous than the price suggests and any double-figure prices appeal.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Tuesday tips here