Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Bird to fly home at Warwick

• Travelled strongly in bumpers

• Potential for improvement on better ground

• Birdhouse is overpriced at Warwick

Warwick - 14:00 - Back Birdhouse

Politacus was the best of these in bumpers and the market soon took care of the edge in her price but there's a filly who finished behind her at Ascot who I think could be more of a danger today than the market suggests.

Birdhouse was held up on debut at Ascot and raced keenly on the inside. She was still travelling well turning the final bend but had to wait for a run. Once angled out in the home straight, she was only gently shaken along and made a little progress before her run flattened out and she finished seventh.

She was held up once again on her second start at Fakenham and was still in last turning down the back straight for the final time. She made headway easily turning out of the back straight and continued that progress to move into second turning the final bend. She edged to the inside and quickened up well to win with more in hand than the winning margin suggests.

The way that Birdhouse travelled through both of her bumpers was quite taking and suggests that she could have more ability than the bare form suggests. I'm not sure the soft ground was ideal for her when she won either so the switch to a better surface today could bring improvement from her and she still appeared green in victory.

There is, of course, the unknown over how she will take to hurdling and it might be that today will be more about furthering her education but I think she has the potential to run better than her price suggests and any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

Read Daryl Carter's Thursday tips here.