Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 20/1 staying hurdler at Musselburgh

• Returning to longer trip

• Drops in class

• Punxsutawney Phil is overpriced at Musselburgh

Musselburgh - 12:45 - Punxsutawney Phil

Punxsutawney Phil drops into a class five handicap hurdle for the first time in the opening race at Musselburgh and he looks overpriced on the back of two respectable efforts in defeat over shorter trips in his last two starts.

Two starts ago, the very slow pace at Market Rasen was against him. He was outpaced as the pace lifted leaving the back straight but rallied to get back into contention at two out and he was still fairly close up at the last when making a mistake and finished fourth.

Punxsutawney Phil was ridden much handier at Sedgefield last time when making or sharing the running from the off. He was sent on turning out of the back straight before being joined by Salsada at two out and couldn't match her speed late on but plugged on well enough to finish second.

Both of those performances suggest that a return to this longer trip could bring improvement from Punxsutawney Phil and he ran well in defeat over such trips earlier in his career at Worcester and Cheltenham.

He did look a bit quirky at Market Rasen and it might be that he's better going left-handed but in a race of this quality I think the market is underestimating his chance and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Monday tips here.