Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 18/1 chasing debutant at Exeter

• Good level of consistent form over hurdles

• Suitable test for chasing debut

• Don't Rightly Know is overpriced at Exeter

Exeter - 13:55 - Back Don't Rightly Know

It's no surprise that there has been early money for Hititi and Enjoy Your Life in this handicap chase but there's a chasing newcomer who looks overpriced.

Don't Rightly Know only won once over hurdles but she ran to a consistently good level throughout the season. Having been narrowly beaten in a handicap at Newbury, she was put into much stronger company in a Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Haydock and ran very well in testing conditions. She made much of the running and while she was no match for Now Is The Hour in the closing stages, she finished 21 lengths clear of Inox Allen.

I thought she ran well at Uttoxeter on her final start of the season considering that trip would be on the sharp side for her and the return to three miles on a stiff track suits her. The ground was softer than described at the last meeting and I think that is likely to be the case again today if the going stick is any guide and it's a case of the softer the better for Don't Rightly Know. She has the physique of a chaser and showed last season that she can go well fresh so I think there could be more to come from her.

There is the obvious unknown that while she has the physique of a chaser, she does have to prove that she can jump fences sharply enough against generally far more experienced types to not harm her chance on chasing debut but I think the market is overlooking her potential and any double-figure prices appeal.

Exeter - 15:05 - Back Rangatira Jack

This looks a fairly weak race for the level and I'm taking a chance on one at a big price who could be competitive if bouncing back to the ability he showed last season.

Rangatira Jack ran respectably in defeat in his final three starts in maiden hurdles last season, including at this track and in testing conditions elsewhere, and physically he looked a chasing type who could improve with time and the switch to fences.

However, he has been disappointing in both starts this season. In a maiden hurdle at Wincanton, he dropped away quickly in the closing stages and at Chepstow last time, he was dropped by the main pack at the end of the back straight and was pulled up.

One encouraging sign from the Chepstow run was that he jumped well and he tended to go out to the right so the return to a right-handed track is likely to suit. It may be that he suddenly has a physical issue that means he won't be the same horse that he was last season and he's in a yard with a very low strike rate but he's been dropped 5lb and in a race of this quality I can't let him go unbacked at a big price. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

Exeter - 15:40 - Back Back Yourself

There are quite a few in the closing amateurs' handicap hurdle who could have a little in hand but there are a couple who I think could have more than that in hand if turning up at their best.

Back Yourself is returning from a 425-day absence and makes a return to hurdling on his second start for David Pipe. He was comfortably held when last seen over fences at Newton Abbot but he jumped poorly that day and I'm not sure that sharp track would have been ideal for him.

Prior to that, on his final start for Victor Dartnall, he was a comfortable winner of a handicap hurdle at Ffos Las when stepped up significantly in trip from his maiden/novice hurdle runs. He runs today off only a 2lb higher mark than he did on that occasion and the ground is in his favour so if he still retains the ability he previously showed then he has the potential to run well.

There is the concern that whatever has kept him off the track will mean he's not quite as good as he was or that, while the stiff track will help, he might ideally need more of a test of stamina but I think the market has overlooked his potential for more and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals.

Exeter - 15:40 - Back Russian Invasion

Russian Invasion is the other horse who appeals at a bigger price. He hasn't been seen under rules since February 2021 but he's since been running in points and to a level that suggests he can be competitive off a lowly mark on his handicap debut.

He made a winning start in the pointing field before ending the season with two second places behind Gats And Co and Twig who went on to achieve peak ratings under rules since of 125 and 147.

Russian Invasion failed to win in two starts in the 2022/23 season but the yard was going through a quieter time then and when he made his seasonal debut last season at Kilworthy before the yard burst back into life. He won on his second start of the season at Parham before his jumping let him down and he didn't appear to quite see out the trip at South Hill. He got back to winning ways on his final start of the season at Bratton Down and now makes the switch to racing under rules.

While he didn't look the horse last season that he appeared he could be when first switching to pointing, he was still running to a level that suggests he can be better than his lowly rating. I think the switch to hurdling could also suit him as he's not too big and his jumping was an issue at times in points.

There is a concern that the ground could be softer than ideal for him, which may explain why they have put on a tongue tie for the first time, and it may be that the yard will start to warm up later in the season but the pointing arm has had a couple run well in defeat from only three runners this season which offers hope. Any double-figure prices appeal.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Thursday tips here