Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 14/1 Autumn on his return to the flat at Dundalk

• Three good runs on the flat in France

• Returns to the flat in a moderate maiden

• Autumn Twist is overpriced at Dundalk

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Dundalk - 14:10 - Back Autumn Twist

Autumn Twist's form in three runs on the flat in France for Andre Fabre arguably sets the standard in this maiden and I think the market is underestimating his chance on his return to this sphere.

On his debut at Clairefontaine over a mile, he looked a bit green at various stages of the race when finishing fourth behind Ten Horns, with the winner and the third going on to pick up black type. Autumn Twist made the running on his second start over the same C&D but lacked the necessary turn of foot in the straight and once again finished fourth behind a horse who would go on to pick up black type in De Sica.

He was stepped up a furlong for his final start for Fabre at Chantilly and raced keen early on before settling towards the back of the field. Once angled out for his effort in the home straight, he kept responding to pressure and finished strongly to take second splitting a couple of rivals now rated in the 80s.

Autumn Twist was bought for 21,000gns after that to join Denis Hogan and has shaped with promise in both starts over hurdles for him while looking a non-stayer on both occasions.

It is a bit concerning that he had such a hard race at Limerick 15 days ago when finishing weakly in very testing conditions and a mile may be a bit on the sharp side for him but I think he's significantly overpriced in a maiden of this quality given the ability that he has shown and any 6/17.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Wednesday tips here.