Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 12/1 winning pointer on his return at Worcester

• Better ground than in latest starts

• Jumped well on chasing debut

• Ballybeg Boss is overpriced at Worcester

Worcester - 17:40 - Back Ballybeg Boss

Ballybeg Boss is returning from a long break in the opening handicap chase at Worcester and I think the market is underestimating his chance of getting off the mark under rules.

He improved for the better ground when winning on his second start in the Irish pointing field but he's rarely had the opportunity to run on anything like that sort of ground under rules. He ran well on his first two starts under rules before understandably being outclassed by Altobelli at Carlisle.

Ballybeg Boss's last two starts were on very testing ground. He ran very poorly at Newcastle and finished well beaten in third at Bangor on his chasing debut but it was encouraging that he jumped well and was in contention before dropping away quickly after three out. He now runs off a 6lb lower mark on his return to action and the quality of his jumping will be a positive in a race where I think there are some doubts over the jumping of a few of those ahead of him in the market.

While there is rain forecast, I can't see the ground ending up any worse than soft and that should be fine for him while any quicker ground shouldn't be an issue either. It may be that he will need the run after such a break or that whatever has caused the absence will mean that he's not the horse he was before but in a race of this quality I think Ballybeg Boss is overpriced and any 8/19.00 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Thursday tips here