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Opening Irish mark looks lenient
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Could be favourably positioned
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Oakley is overpriced at Cork
Cork - 14:45 - Back Oakley
When horses come from France to race in Britain or Ireland and already have a rating, it's usually easy to work out what rating they will get, given the typical conversion rate. When they come from Germany, it's a very different story and that can result in some ratings being a long way from what would be expected.
I think that's the case with Oakley who has been given what looks a very lenient opening mark of 60 in Ireland. His two runs in France back in 2021 would put him on a mark in the mid-70s and it's surprising that his final run in Germany for Andreas Bolte hasn't resulted in him being given a higher rating.
That run was at Leipzig over 1m7f and he led for much of the race until being caught in the closing stages by Lotterbov. That rival was value for more than the winning margin suggests but he did go on to win a Listed race next time so being beaten 1¾ lengths by him is no disgrace and suggests that a mark of 60 could be significantly underrating Oakley's ability.
Oakley could also find himself favourably positioned in the race if they choose to repeat the positive tactics used by previous connections as there's not too much early pace in this race so hopefully he will be able to get across into a good position from stall eight.
There is a slight concern that his latest runs have been over further and he may be best over those sort of trips but he showed enough speed to suggest the drop back to 1m4f shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience. He could be so well handicapped that it just doesn't matter.
While his price has shortened, Oakley could be so much better than his rating of 60 that in a race of this quality he's still overpriced and any 5/23.50 or bigger appeals.
Bellewstown - 16:35 - Back Champagne Dawn
Those that have run over hurdles hardly set a high standard in this maiden hurdle and a couple of hurdling debutants at big prices make some appeal.
Champagne Dawn started his career in the pointing field and was pulled up on debut when looking an obvious non stayer in testing conditions. Switched to racing under rules, he showed promise in a bumper at Limerick when shaping better than the margin beaten suggests.
He was held up and raced keenly at the back of the field, some way behind the leader despite a slow pace. He pulled his way closer going down the back straight for the final time and was still travelling well turning the final bend before his effort flattened out late on and he finished fifth.
The switch to a far more experienced rider will help Champagne Dawn this evening and hopefully he will be ridden more efficiently as a result. This trip could be ideal for him and he doesn't face an overly strong field on his hurdling debut. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.
Bellewstown - 16:35 - Back Ollie La Ba Ba
At an even bigger price, I can't let Ollie La Ba Ba go unbacked given he looks likely to be better suited by this test than running over three miles in points.
He showed very little on debut at Belclare but ran better on his second start at Bartlemy. He was still in touch with the leading group at three out before dropping away quickly and was pulled up.
I think this sharper test will suit and he wears a first time tongue tie today. That suggests he may have had a wind op since that last run, which would explain why he suddenly stopped to nothing, and he could finish off the race stronger today.
It might be that he's just a weak finisher or doesn't have much ability but given his potential for improvement and the quality of opposition, I think he's a little overpriced and any 33/134.00 or bigger appeals.
Bellewstown - 19:10 - Back Ambitious Approach
Ambitious Approach hasn't been competitive in three starts over hurdles but those have come in much stronger races than the one he contests this evening on his handicap debut. He could run better than his big price suggests.
He showed little on hurdling debut at Cork in December but improved on that at Thurles next time when finishing 25 lengths behind the winner and ahead of Tea It Is who he faces tonight.
The 2m4f trip proved too far for him on his final start in maiden hurdles when finishing well behind a smart rival in Senior Chief and only two places behind Anyway, who gained a little attention when winning a handicap on Monday.
Ambitious Approach was ridden patiently in those three races but when running well on the flat for Jim Bolger he was ridden prominently and I'm hoping they might go back to using those tactics tonight at a track where that is an advantage.
It might be that he's just not as talented as he once was or isn't a hurdler. But in a race of this quality I think he's a little overpriced and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.
Bellewstown - 19:40 - Back Intertwine
Intertwine hasn't been seen since finishing fourth on debut at Punchestown in October but if she can repeat the level of ability she showed that day I think she has a good chance of getting off the mark today.
She was held up towards the back of the field in a fairly steadily run race before making headway on the outside after turning out of the back straight. She continued to progress into a challenging position turning the final bend, where she was pushed a little wider still, before being unable to go with the front pair in the straight and finishing fourth.
The first two home in that bumper are now rated 125 and 124 over hurdles respectively, while the third and fifth won a bumper next time.
It is a bit concerning that Intertwine has been off the track since and she does have an inexperienced jockey in the saddle tonight. But if she can run close to the level she showed on debut then she has a good chance in this and any 7/24.50 or bigger appeals.
Bellewstown - 19:40 - Back Joe Hannigan
At a much bigger price, I can't let Joe Hannigan go unbacked given this looks likely to be a far more suitable test for her than three miles over fences in the mud.
She was held up and raced keenly under restraint at the back of the field at the off before pulling her way closer on the long run to the third. She was a bit slow at that and made a bad mistake at the seventh before once again being keen on the long run to the next.
She continued to race in last and again made a little headway on the long run to three out but by this time she had little left after being so keen in the testing conditions and was pulled up.
This will be a far more suitable test for Joe Hannigan and the first chance she will have to show her true ability. A hood going on for the first time can also help her to settle better in the early stages.
It may turn out that she doesn't have much ability but I think she's a little overpriced given this is a far more suitable test and any 25/126.00 or bigger appeals.
Read Daryl Carter's Wednesday tips here.
Recommended bets
Back Oakley in the 14:45 at Cork 1pt win at 11/43.75
Back Champagne Dawn in the 16:35 at Bellewstown 0.5pt win at 28/129.00
Back Ollie La Ba Ba in the 16:35 at Bellewstown 0.5pt win at 50/151.00
Back Ambitious Approach in the 19:10 at Bellewstown 0.5pt win at 18/119.00
Back Intertwine in the 19:40 at Bellewstown 1pt win at 9/25.50
Back Joe Hannigan in the 19:40 at Bellewstown 0.5pt win at 33/134.00
RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023
Staked: 178.50pts
Returned: 188.51pts
P/L: +10.01pts