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Seven ITV races this weekend
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Alan likes a 25/126.00 EW pick in the Ripon feature
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Henry Candy 3yo best bet of the weekend
Ripon - Great St Wilfrid - Back Sophia's Starlight and Hyperfocus EW
Seven races on ITV for this Saturday, with four at Newbury and a couple from Ripon, and the big race at the Yorkshire venue is the best place to start looking at the ante-post prices as we are guaranteed a sizeable field, and is the biggest handicap of the weekend.
The forecast has to be touched on, as a wet week is in store in the north, so we have to be basing bets on ground with soft in the description.
There's also the draw to factor in for Saturday, and we could be unlucky or lucky on that front so we have to take it on the chin.
Twenty eight were entered on Tuesday with a '7/1 the field' market, so it's certainly the race to have a couple of darts at and throw the Garden Racecourse dice.
Three horses in the entries are rated 100+ - including the Charlie Hills' trained Equilateral, who usually competes at Group level. The 8yo is rated 105 and is 14/115.00 on the Sportsbook with four places at the time of writing.
At a similar sort of price, I do like the claims of the progressive Sophia's Starlight for trainer Grant Tuer.
She's enjoyed a terrific season so far with four wins including handicaps at Newmarket and Carlisle from 74 and 80, and it appears groundwise she is versatile with success on good and good to soft.
Her appearance at the Goodwood festival recently was most unfortunate as the saddle slipped and the jockey Ollie Stammers done remarkably well to finish second on the near rail.
As one of the 3yos in the line-up she is unexposed, stays 7f and can be up with the pace.
The other selection is Hyperfocus for Tim Easterby. I'm a bit of a sucker for an Easterby runner at the track, and Hyperfocus is a whopping 25/126.00.
He's another that is usually a front-runner, or at least a handy racer and is certainly one to bear in mind if the ground goes soft.
If it rains, and rains more, I expect his price to be shortened. He goes well at Ripon and is in off a mark of 93.
Ripon - Silver Trophy Handicap - Back Winter Crown
Another of the Ripon races is the Silver Trophy Handicap, and another big field expected with 33 entries at the time of perusing the race and prices on the Sportsbook. And is so often the case, more are entered for the consolation prize.
Eleven jockeys were booked up on Tuesday to make things a little clearer, although the race is fiendish with a batch of 70-rated runners.
From the unexposed angle, Julie Camacho's Winter Crown 10/111.00 won't mind any rain, nor indeed decent ground as he seems pretty adaptable.
The 3yo has a couple of decent pieces of handicap form for the this level, finishing fourth in a Sunday Series race at Beverley and a second in the series at Musselburgh. He also put up a good show at Chester earlier in the season in soft.
When winning at Nottingham two starts back, the jockey Ryan Sexton said he should have a big race in him. Six furlongs with a pace will suit as he has found 5f on the sharp side, and he's another of the 3yos to hopefully make an impact.
Newbury - Geoffrey Freer Stakes - Back Grand Alliance
We'll take in the Newbury races in time order, and Saturday's Geoffrey Freer at 13:50 commences the afternoon.
With a 2/13.00 favourite in Kemari trained by Charlie Appleby, it's a massive swerve on that price as some of the trainer's horses have been running awfully.
Shandoz is potentially smart, but at 4/15.00, and a lay-off of nearly 660 days, he's another with a warning purely on the absence - and those are two of the top three in the betting.
Grand Alliance at 14/115.00 won the John Porter at the track earlier in the season at a big price and goes well at Newbury. He won't mind rain either with proven form on soft and heavy.
He's a lively outsider, and while the trip is slightly unknown with him mostly campaigned at 1m4f, he has held an entry in the Yorkshire Cup and is worth a shot at staying.
Newbury - 14:25 - Back Simple Man
Another potentially big field for one of the Newbury televised handicaps with the 14:25 Highclere Castle Gin Handicap 5f and 10 of the jockeys were booked up at the time of writing including William Buick for Roger Teal and Whenthedealinddeal and Oisin Murphy on Four Adaay - who will have an ultra low weight.
Simple Man for "The Eyebrows" Henry Candy stands out a bit at 8/19.00, if you can in such a big field, as a runner with his future ahead of him.
With just three career starts, he won on debut at Nottingham last season as a juvenile and looked ever so clued-up - and Candy wouldn't have too many 2yos winning first time out.
He cost 65K and has a fast dam side, and it was no surprise to see Candy pitch him into a good race on his second start in the Listed Doncaster Stakes, but he found that too much at such an early stage of his career with the heavy conditions.
It was good to see him back on his sole appearance this term - finishing second on handicap debut from 79 in testing ground. That was 105 days ago, so I am not entirely sure if he's had a hold up or Candy is waiting for rain, but that was a promising return and could make up to a useful sprinter.
He's be one of my stronger bets on the Saturday card at 8/19.00, and rain is forecast for Friday and Saturday in Berkshire, and he won't mind that at all with two of his three starts on heavy.
If anyone can, the Candy man can.
Newbury - 15:00 - Back Chartwell House
We're spoilt for choice in terms of the handicap action and some proper betting races are in store with another potentially big field for the 0-100 15:00 BetVictor Handicap 7f as 26 were in at the entries stage.
Top rated are Bless Him and Rhythm Master at 101 and 100, and a real old mixed bag in terms of horses in and out of form.
Star Of Orion is a pretty obvious one for the 'R' man Ralph Beckett and the "double R' Rossa Ryan. He'd be a standout at 5/16.00 on his third in the International over 7f at Ascot last time.
That signalled a real return to form, but 5/16.00 is a little short considering the nature of the race.
Chartwell House is double the price at 10/111.00 and is progressing well for trainer William Knight. Back him each-way on the Sportsbook for Saturday.
He beat Royal Charter at Haydock in June over 7f, and Royal Charter has subsequently boosted the form with a win from 84, but Chartwell House had a bit in hand that day.
The 3yo acquitted himself well in a good race at Haydock last time finishing second behind a very progressive rival, and from a 9lb higher mark that day, showed he is up to these sort of level handicaps.
He has started to settle better too as he was quite keen early this season.
Newbury - 15:35 Hungerford Stakes - No Bet
Two previous winners of the Hungerford are back for more on Saturday with Jumby 4/15.00 and Sacred 6/42.50 and with Chindit the second favourite at 4/15.00, it's a race I can leave alone.
Marbaan is the horse who looks overpriced at 10/111.00 and he should get the pace to aim at. He ran well at Goodwood in the Group 2 Lennox last time, but I cannot see him beating Sacred.
I'll be back to stand in for Tony Calvin again later this week.
Recommended bets
Back Sophia's Starlight in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday @ 14/115.00 EW
Back Hyperfocus in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday @ 25/126.00 EW
Back Grand Alliance @ 14/115.00 in the Newbury Geoffrey Freer on Saturday
Back Chartwell House @ 10/111.00 in the 15:00 Newbury on Saturday