I have previously covered a few of the ITV races that were priced up on Monday, and we'll have a spin through today looking at the fillies' Clasic and Thirsk.
My 2,000 thoughts along with a few of the HQ ones for the end of the week can be read here.
No Inspiral, 50-50 from Weld, so will Varian lay out the Guineas carpet?
The big betting news of the weekend wasn't Fresh Hope's defeat at 4/7 at Bath, but the expected absence of Inspiral from the 1,000 Guineas hit the headlines following John Gosden confirming it's Royal Ascot rather than HQ.
The Guineas dice have been put away for now. A somewhat curious three days regarding her participation started on Friday with Chris Richardson from Cheveley Park giving an interview leading to a headline that she was on course for Sunday. When Sunday came round, Gosden ruled out last year's champion 2yo filly by saying: "She missed some days training at a critical stage of her preparation and although she is well in herself now, we don't have her at the correct pitch to run in the Guineas."
She'd drifted for a while and it was hardly a surprise, and then came the news that second favourite Homeless Songs 17.5 is only rated 50/50 by her trainer Dermot Weld as he is seriously considering a go at the Pouliches (French 1,000) rather than the U.K. one.
She started out at about 5/1 on the Exchange yesterday, and she's drifted out to 17.5 Tuesday, so perhaps that tells its own story.
This is now a tricky market. Antepost fav gone, second fav could be gone, and it was no wonder Tenebrism was at 11/4 on the Sportsbook and 4.3100/30 on the Exchange market before it suspended with the Homeless Songs news. The forfeit and supplementary stages for the week could be anything but moribund, but the lively moving continued this morning with Aidan O'Brien's Cheveley Park winner back out to 5.14/1.
The Cheveley Park conundrum is always to the fore whether a 6f winner will truly stay the Guineas 1m with Tenebrism. There are enough doubts also from that race as there was a major advantage of running up the stands' rail that day. Tenebrism picked off Flotus with a dashing late burst, having been matched at 100.099/1 in-play, and her two quickest furlongs according to the sectional data were F4 and F5 at 11.09 and 10.98 seconds.
Her final furlong was timed at 11.58, which leads me to slightly question whether a strongly-run Guineas will enable her to stay.
Also she's by Caravaggio - the bullet sprinter and winner of a Commonwealth Cup, so it's no certainty despite the dam producing a couple of 1m2f winners.
The French filly Malavath has gone out to 8.27/1 and went bigger than Discoveries and Tuesday (both 7.2) on Tuesday morning 9for too many Tuesdays in that for my liking) and is a tough one to work out. Her best form is on very testing going across the channel, but she did finish second in the Breeders Cup as a juvenile at Del Mar on quick, very quick ground. The pace was a ridiculously furious in that and she was the closer, and there are no issues with fitness as she raced 24 days ago.
Malavath landed the Prix Impudence as a 2yo and Watch Me won that for the same trainer in 2019 who went onto win the Coronation at Ascot and stayed 1m2f.
Stamina keeps popping up here, but there are no qualms on that front with O'Brien's Tuesday - who is certain to get the trip and more as a sister to Empress Josephine, and a daughter of Minding.
She only had one run as a 2yo, and finished second behind subsequent Moyglare winner Discoveries despite looking very green. She made no mistake coming out for her reappearance in March to win a good Maiden and displayed she'd improved a lot from that first run.
Despite her not being as precocious as her illustrious sister Minding - who had five runs as a juvenile before winning the 1,000 Guineas on her reappearance in 2015, the cast-iron stamina has persuaded me to throw her in alongside my each-way bet and I am never bothered about backing an O'Brien supposed second or third string - especially with fillies' Classics, although the trainer was quoted at his media morning earlier in the year that he thought Newmarket might come too soon and the Irish 1000 would be more a possible.
But she has a good temperament according to O'Brien and she could run a big race.
This certainly looks a market worth chancing a big price on.
There's one that looks a runner to me and that's Ameynah for Roger Varian as a 25/1 poke.
She won a Fillies' Maiden at the Craven meeting recently, and I was taken with her physically and her ability to handle the dip. She has got an entry, but it's whether the twice-raced rookie is up to a Classic task with a bit of inexperience. I wouldn't be too worried about that personally, as I remember Ghanaati having just one run, and fillies can mature quickly.
The daughter of Exceed And Excel shaped well, if inexperienced on her debut at the backend of last term at Newmarket, and showed the benefit of the run with an emphatic performance on her seasonal reappearance at the track. She travelled so strongly and floated into the dip, but was even quicker out of it. I can't stress enough the ability to handle that part of the track and she's built like a bull.
If Homeless Songs doesn't turn up, Varian might just chance a go at this. His quotes afterwards were slightly encouraging (maybe I read him wrongly!), but he mentioned a possible by saying: "I don't think I'll rule it (1000 Guineas) out. We like her and she has won nicely, but it is only a maiden. We're in a nice position where we can watch the trials this week.
"She's a big filly with loads of scope. If she could have got out three weeks ago on the all-weather, we maybe could have come here for a Nell Gwyn, but we didn't so she was only ready to run this week."
I think at 25s, she is a potential mover and that price hasn't contracted or gone out since early on Monday morning. I have scoured the news sources (googled it), and there has been nothing posted about her from April 13th. No news is good news as they say - so hopefully it's a yes from Roger.
On the Hunt for a Cup winner at Thirsk
The weekend's action really is mouth-watering and ITV are also showing the Thirsk Hunt Cup on Saturday, a race that was priced up on the Sportsbook on Tuesday. Field sizes have been good for that in the past six seasons with 15, 15, 16, 15, 17 and 18.
Twenty one entries at the time of writing, so I am hoping we get the four places and a couple are entered for Saeed bin Suroor - who won this race with Farhh in 2012. To say he was well-handicapped from 100 that day would have been the understatement of the year as he tore apart the field to win by 6L.
There isn't anything of that calibre in this year's renewal, and Long Tradition looks a worthy favourite back on quicker ground, but there are no secrets or hidden gems with him as the early 4/1 favourite on the Sportsbook.
Dubai Love looks a bit more enticing in terms of an each-way bet at 12/1, and I am convinced she will be best at the 1m trip.
Her form is a real mixed bag as she took the UAE 1000 in her younger days, and has raced for much of her career out in Meydan. She finished third in the Balanchine in February, but her efforts in two subsequent starts tailed off.
A break of 56 days and a slight ease in her rating to 98 could make her prime material for one of the ace apprentices to be use by SBS. Harry Davies was used by Charlie Appleby in the Lincoln and his booked rides on Friday are all at Newmarket. I await to see what happens on Saturday, but a 7lb claim would be rather nice.
Dubai Love finished third in the Sandringham and a non-staying fourth in the Musidora in 2020 on good to soft ground. That trip stretches her and she's pretty adaptable with going, as two of her best wins have come in quite testing conditions.
She has made the running before and a confirmed stayer at 1m. She's the same price as Delgrey Boy for Tim Easterby, and he caught the eye somewhat on his reappearance and travelled very well at the weekend in a 0-105 at Haydock on the outside - only to be outstayed. He is capable of a place, and I might be tempted on the day, but Dubai Love looks a steonger stayer and we've plenty to go on for the Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
You can read my 2000 Guineas thought by clicking here