Horse Racing Tips

Newmarket 2000 Guineas Antepost Tips: Back Corobeus to upset stablemate

Newmarket Guineas meeting
Newmarket's three-day Guineas meeting starts this Friday

"A nice big field and pace on quick ground are all in his favour, and for a Dubawi he'll stay, but he's quick for that sire and surprised a few with his acceleration on debut."

Back Coroebus @ 4.57/2 in the 2000 Guineas

Alan Dudman is standing in the antepost seat for the next two days, and he's looking ahead to the Classic weekend at Newmarket and is taking on the favourite in the 2000 Guineas...

As usual with Tony Calvin, Mondays and Tuesdays revolve around digging out a couple of antepost bets and with Newmarket's three-day Guineas meeting commencing this Friday, I've at least got the Classic twist while TC is over in Ireland enjoying the Punchestown Festival.

Hopefully he can pluck out another Noble Yeats for the website!

With six Group races, a trio of Listed events and a plethora of handicaps and potential in the novice/maiden races, it's about as good as it gets for me on the Flat. Certainly better than the Sunday offerings just gone - a day I had a little moan on Twitter that it surely was one of the poorest for a while. At least I'll have my Sea The Stars and Dubawi sons and daughters.

Native on the Guineas trail, who can stop Appleby?

The strength in depth at the disposal of Godolphin's head boy Charlie Appleby is nothing short of ridiculous in the 3yo division. The rise and rise of the handler is in stark contrast to the less than successful times for his across-Newmarket neighbour Saeed bin Suroor - he had a couple of horses beaten at Chelmsford on Friday night. It really is a different ball game now between those two.

Long term backing of sires Dubawi, Sea The Stars and Frankel is reaping the rewards now and, who knows, maybe one of those will eclipse Galileo as a super stallion?

If you like an 11/10 shot as antepost bet for the week ahead, there won't be many worse shots than Native Trail - the champion juvenile who appears to have grown again from two to three.

Charlie Appleby and jockeys 1280 .jpg

He is looking to become the first horse to score a Craven-Guineas double since Haafhd in 2004 and there isn't a lot to argue with regarding his claims. Even the angle of him hitting a flat spot for a potential back of him higher in-running is unlikely, as layers are wised-up to these sort of things (unless you've been living on the moon).

His biggest price to date in terms of an IR high was on his second start at 22.021/1. He did go higher in Ireland at 8.415/2, but his Craven BSP of 1.321/3 hardly altered much to 1.75/7.

And I doubt if I'll be asked to fill in for TC again if I tipped at those odds.

Lots in favour for supposed second string

Appleby's supposed second string Coroebus looks a totally different type, and he's the sort of horse I love - a bridle, smooth-going sort with class. It was interesting to hear William Buick last week say that he shouldn't be underestimated in relation to his stablemate.

"I think myself and William [Buick] would slightly differ," he said. "You cannot fault what Native Trail has done - he's four out of four - but I do like Coroebus, as I think he's a supreme traveller," said Appleby last October.

"In the Classics, the one thing you have got to be able to do is travel and that's what Coroebus does in abundance. He has so much cruising speed that it wouldn't have mattered how quick they went today, they would never take him off the bridle."

My fault as a punter is sometimes I am seduced by a silky-smooth traveller, and while a racecourse gallop is never a substitute, Coroebus' spin at Newmarket during the Craven meeting was an indication to me anyway, that Appleby feels his mentality is good enough. Hopefully memories of his 1.011/100 defeat when finishing second in the Royal Lodge will be exorcised - although Buick admitted he made a mistake in going early.

A nice big field and pace on quick ground are all in his favour, and for a Dubawi he'll stay, but he's quick for that sire and surprised a few with his acceleration on debut.

With the fourth favourite Perfect Power 10.09/1 as a doubtful stayer, I'll be playing Coroebus in opposition. I can't see too much changing with news this week as the PP was confirmed as by Richard Fahey to tackle the Classic 1m, and I can see Coroebus (7/2) as the "wise guy" horse" for the week for those looking to have a bet at something not at Evens.

Bizarre to think of a Classic without a mention of Aidan O'Brien so far. So I'll rectify that, Luxembourg is 9/2 on the Sportsbook.

Goodwood and Newmarket the ITV races for Friday and Morghom can handle the step up in class

There are four races for the ITV cameras on Friday from Newmarket and the bonus of three from Goodwood, and bar the Monday in Sussex, Tuesday through to Friday will be dry.

The Group 2 Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes over 1m4f was priced up by two firms on Monday afternoon, and Yibir 1.68/13 isn't a horse I'd be in a rush to lay. He won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy last term on the July Course over 1m5f, and he is a strong stayer at the trip. Indeed, Bahrain Trophy winners tend to have a lot of stamina, and perhaps that lack of instant acceleration caught him out in the Sheema Classic in Meydan last time.

He was given a lot do, but he's a classy operator and the opposition doesn't look the strongest. I wanted a bit bigger on Albaflora as she stays forever, but I don't think she's quite in Yibir's class and might prefer softer going. She was 7/2 across two firms, but it's a race best left alone.

The races preceding on ITV4 are the 13:50 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Newmarket Stakes and 14:25 Betfair King Charles II Stakes - both at Listed level.

Appleby once again is strong-handed, but I was taken by Morghom's performance just two weeks ago at Newbury on debut. Seven furlongs looks his ideal distance as he is pretty quick, and his victory in a big-field Maiden appeared to take the trainer by surprise, and a few others too as he was allowed to go off 21.020/1 on the BSP.

He had a lovely easy way of going on the good ground and his handler Marcus Tregoning said afterwards that "he could be quite good". Morghom staying with Tregoning was one that survived the Shadwell trainer cull last week and is another one to highlight the versatility of his sire Dubawi. His brother Mustajeeb was quick enough for 6f, and Morghom's quickest furlong at 11.38 seconds came with his decisive move 2f out.

Marcus Tregoning 1280.jpg

It's a jump in class, but I like him with the 11/2 or thereabouts.

Rapscallion to lord it over his Newmarket rivals?

I am doing my best and trying in keeping with TC to find something at a bigger price, and Lord Rapscallion at least is double figures at 11/1 for one of the two handicaps on the Friday at HQ.

The Stuart Williams-trained 6yo lines up in the Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap over 7f at 15:00 on the Friday and looks off a good mark, albeit in a tough race with the top weighted entered rated three-figures.

But "the Lord" held some decent form in good handicaps last term (without winning). He was fourth in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot and was unlucky at both Epsom and Goodwood when meeting trouble. Although with that sort of name, it sort of goes hand-in-hand.

However, Hollie Doyle rode him from the front in the Bunbury Cup on quick ground, and that was one an excellent effort when third to the 109-rated Motakhayyel. That's strong handicap form, and the draw could be interesting if he's got a slot on the rail. For that, he is worth chancing at 11/1 as an each-way bet.

He was rated 102 in his prime in Ireland, and he's off a great mark of 88. At the time of writing, he had no jockey booked up. But Doyle said after the Bunbury Cup that he could have a big one in him, so I'll be watching the riders engagements for that card and race as she'll be a huge plus on board as I think she's excellent front-running.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at Sunday's 1000 Guineas and a potential 25/1 bet.

*You can follow me on Twitter @DudmanAl

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