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Alan Dudman delivers his latest antepost column ahead of a big weekend
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Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar on ITV this Saturday
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The cameras are also at Longchamp on Sunday for the Arc
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Alan has an Arc selection plus 10/111.00, 10/111.00 and 12/113.00 tips for weekend
Ascot - 13:15: Back Jabaara E/W @ 12/113.00
A solitary day this week with rain forecast should leave us with at least good ground at Ascot on Saturday and the opening 13:15 October Stakes over 7f where there is a big enough field for an each-way play.
Roger Varian's Jabaara has been running at a higher level this season and should appreciate the drop in class and odds of 12/113.00 looks too high on her level of form.
She's a four-year-old filly that hasn't been the easiest to place this term, especially over 7f and she looks short on Group class as she has finished fifth and sixth in the Sceptre and Oak Tree at Doncaster and Goodwood, and back to Listed company looks an ideal move.
Seven is her trip and ground-wise she acts on soft but she's better on good and scored at Musselburgh earlier in the season on that sort of terrain and it tends to ride quicker there anyway. Indeed, that was a back-to-back victory in the Queen Of Scots race at the Edinburgh circuit and her trainer did say after that performance she threw away a race at Goodwood last year.
She can be a keen-going sort and this does have the potential with a max field of 18, which will help.
Back Jabaara in the 13:15 at Ascot E/W
Ascot - 13:50: Back Candy E/W three places @ 10/111.00
The fact that a few of the contenders at entries stage for the 5f Rous Stakes at Listed level are rated in the 70s and 80s tells you all you need to know at the chronic dearth of sprinters this term.
The Group 1s have been nothing short of a lottery in a doom-laden division.
That's not to say there isn't a bet at Ascot and Candy has to be of interest at double figures after running away with the Ayr Silver Cup recently.
Granted it came on soft, and perhaps he's a better horse with give underfoot as he also scored as a juvenile when soft, but his win at Ayr last year came when pretty quick and he possesses a high cruising speed and sees out 6f well.
I am not dissuaded at all from the jump up in class, as he's gone up to 98 from 92 following Ayr and is still improving as a young horse and three-year-olds have won this twice since 2014.
It must also be said what a wonderful season trainer Richard Spencer is having with owner Phil Cunningham. Spencer's had 19 winners, but 42 placed and prize money of over 700K.
Back Candy in the 13:50 at Ascot E/W
There is a massive Saturday evening KO in the Premier League. Read Opta on Chelsea-Liverpool here, featuring an 8/19.00 tip
Redcar - 15:20: Back Isle Of Fernandez E/W three places @ 10/111.00
Candy was a winner of the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy last season and Spencer is represented by Born Slippy, but rated in the 70s, doesn't look an obvious one.
For Redcar, we should be looking at soft conditions or certainly with give in the going as rain is forecast on three days and at the time of writing on Tuesday morning the going reading was good to soft.
Any surface with soft is a must for Kevin Ryan's Isle Of Fernandez who ran very well despite the massive odds in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde last time behind Richard Fahey's Catching The Moon.
It was proper soft that day and Catching The Moon travelled head and shoulders above every other filly in the field with the race to suit, while Isle Of Fernandez was pestered for the lead and taken on, so did well to finish third under the circumstances.
Last year's renewal saw Candy make all and the first three in the Two-Year-Old Trophy 12 months ago were all up with the pace so it's important to have that on our side with this front-running filly.
It's been a while since Kevin Ryan won this race - back in 2011 with Bogart, but this filly is a big unit and looks powerful with a stride to go in soft. She pulverised a novice field at Carlisle over 6f, and having started out over 7f, it looks as though six will be her metier.
She's make the running I am sure.
Back Isle Of Fernandez in the 15:20 at Redcar E/W
The Arc, Sunday 15:05 - Paris Longchamp: Back Estrange E/W 20/121.00
Paris will be the place to be for the great and good on Sunday and there will be an element of turbo smug from those that are making the short trip across the channel for the race that signals autumn's arrival.
I was initially half-tempted with White Birch at a massive 33/134.00. A Group 1 winner last year who hasn't been campaigned to best effect in my opinion, but the ground is finally suitable.
And with the ground and a couple of wet days in France on Friday and Saturday, Estrange will certainly have her conditions.
It appears this race has been the target all season, and while you had a feeling she "got away" with good ground at Haydock for her first two wins in the Pinnacle and Lancashire Oaks, the quick ground caught her out behind Minnie Hauk in the Yorkshire Oaks at the Ebor meeting.
Fair play to David O'Meara for running her on that occasion, even if it was quick, and if she hadn't have taken part there, Minnie Hauk wouldn't have had much to beat in a four-runner race, which would have been three.
She was a 12/113.00 shot for the arc following her Lancashire Oaks win, and with an unsuitable terrain on her next start, she's nearly double the price which makes little sense to me.
Obviously the Haukster has the weight advantage as a younger filly, but Estrange has a good attitude and O'Meara said she usually falls asleep in her races and has a great relaxed demeanour, which is a good thing and the hulabaloo of Paris won't be an issue.
We've got a decent price and ground is a massive plus.
Back Estrange in the 15:05 at Paris Longchamp E/W