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Alan Dudman delivers his latest antepost bulletin ahead of Betfair Chase day
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Three races analysed from Saturday's Haydock card
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Two hurdlers appeal at prices from 8/19.00 and 12/113.00 for the weekend
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New name on the Befair Chase silverware?
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It's Safer Gambling Week - bet at your best with Betfair's SG tools
Haydock headlines ITV this weekend
At last I think we can officially declare winter has arrived. The north west is bracing itself for a chilly few days with rain from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the outside chances of snow.
Bristol De Mai conditions perhaps not for Betfair Chase Day, but it would be foolish to discount soft ground all round.
Haydock, Saturday, 13:15 - Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle: Back George's Lad E/W 8/19.00
Members of the "Minella Missle well handicapped fan club" are still clinging on to his form from his salad days, although only a five-year-old, his mark of 125 as an insult to his abilities displayed in 2023 when beating Captain Teague. Since, it's been a series of heavy defeats and wretched performances, with a mark in freefall now from 138 at his peak.
He'll pop up one day - probably at Ludlow from 110, but I have to leave him out again. Once called a "likeable gelding", he is more a "dislikeable gelding" on form.
The market has not missed Dan Skelton's Kabral Du Mathan - in as the 9/43.25 favourite on the Betfair Sportsbook - a smooth traveller who competed in some good races last term for Paul Nicholls and looks to have more mileage in his mark of 140 considering his unexposed profile.
I am more interested in Emma Lavelle's George's Lion here at a bigger price with the 8/19.00 on the Sportsbook for the each-way angle.
He improved last winter following a good second to Miami Magic in November around Kempton to subsequently score over 2m4f at Doncaster - winning going away. He was out of luck with a fall late on in the Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final at Sandown in the spring, and the form has already a decent look with the third coming out recently to win over fences from 133.
George's Lad will strip fitter for the run last month at Fontwell over further. He was held up and jumped ponderously late on, but a fast run 2m at a speedier flat circuit might bring out the best from an unchanged mark of 128.
The Lavelle yard go into Saturday with a quiet 0-12 record in the last fortnight, but these can change rapidly and we've got 8s on a horse who surely has more scope than his mark.
Back George's Lad in the 13:15 at Haydock on Saturday
Haydock, Saturday, 14:25 - Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle: Back Nab Wood E/W @ 12/113.00
The legend of Greystoke, Nicky Richards, has been in fabulous form, and form that would make father proud with seven winners in November and Nab Wood hopefully is back on track after a comeback win for the season last time out.
Upped to 3m at Ayr, he relished the new trip and took care of the field comfortably to win a 0-140 on the west coast.
A return to form and a spark was needed as he lost his way somewhat last season after winning twice at Kelso as a novice. When scoring over 2m6f in soft ground last winter (Feb), he was ridden so confidently that he looked "all over" a Saturday horse. A likeable gelding you could say.
He unseated at Haydock last term and things never went right, but I believe he is on a good mark, stays 3m now his Ayr win has opened up a few days and he acts well with cut in the ground.
Back Nab Wood in the 14:25 at Haydock on Saturday
Haydock, Saturday, 15:00 - Betfair Chase: Back Haiti Couleurs @ 10/34.33
Haydock without Bristol De Mai is like Vienna without its court composer, and while this year's intake is small on numbers, it's another chance for the credentials of Haiti Couleurs to be enhanced.
"Anything he does over hurdles is a bonus," goes the old saying. It was a case of "job done" (a very tedious saying) for his comeback over the smaller obstacles winning a Pertemps Qualifier from 145. A real old tough performance in spades and while the trainer Rebecca Curtis was very straight bat and lukewarm on Grade 1 talk and almost taciturn in her post-race interview, but she cannot ignore going for such riches here, especially if the next in the betting is Royal Pagaille.
I like Royal Pagaille and Haydock likes him, as does the Betfair Chase, but his beating of Grey Dawning in the race 12 months go was like watching two heavyweights in the old days of 15 rounds out on their feet. Did it bottom him? Did it bottom out Grey Dawning? It was a brutal race in which determination outshone dash.
Haiti Couleurs has the potential to be a Gold Cup player I am sure, like an old fashioned Gold Cup horse, and he already has a National to his name from Fairyhouse last season in heavy over 3m6f.
Grey Dawning is the right favourite yes, at 11/82.38 and I am sure he'll be ridden positively under the aeroplane Harry Skelton, but if it turns to a slog and all guts that are needed, Haiti has the fitness, the stamina and the abilities to perhaps be a bit stronger in the finish.
And it always comes down to price. A race-fit horse who stays at 10/34.33 against 11/82.38.
Back Haiti Couleurs in the 15:00 at Haydock on Saturday