Sportsbook has 12 races priced up for Derby week
Tuesday morning's hefty downpour of 25mm over the Epsom plains registered with plenty of chatters on 'X' but apparently not the racecourse itself in a somewhat bizarre twist, but with a changeable forecast this week it will be tricky calling this a Derby meeting for a quick ground horse.
It's a bumper Friday and Saturday with the respective second Classics of the season for the colts and the fillies and as of Tuesday afternoon, 12 races were priced up on the Sportsbook ahead of the two-day Surrey jamboree.
A recent interview with Ralph Beckett called for the Derby to be moved to a Friday as nobody works on that day, and a move I wouldn't argue with.
Rain is forecast for Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.
Betfred Oaks Tip - Friday, Epsom, 16:00: Back Thundering On @ 11/26.50
Five of the 12 Oaks contenders are trained by Ballydoyle and not one single representative from Charlie Appleby means Aidan O'Brien dominates the market as per usual and if you fancy his filly Amelia Earhart for the top honours, you've got a 7/42.75 price.
O'Brien has bagged six of the last 10 editions of the race and his Amelia flew solo and whizzed around Chester in the Cheshire Oaks to beat the next big thing I'm The One by 2L - form which now doesn't look so hot. She's improved for the headgear and the step up in trip as she was campaigned at 1m and under last term.
Has she the class to win it? For a filly beaten a few times in her juvenile career, I would say no, and hope there is something a little classier in this field.
Legacy Link hails from an illustrious Juddmonte family and is a first foal of a sister to Frankel and Noble Mission and won the Musidora enjoying the jump up from 1m to 1m2f on the Knavesmire and will certainly appreciate the further increase to 1m4f.
I am leaning towards Joseph O'Brien's filly and another Frankel in Thundering On, and she impressed greatly in winning a key trial in Ireland when landing the Salsabil Stakes at Navan.
Oaks winner of 2024 Ezeliya won the Salsabil en route to Epsom success and with her pronounced knee action and stride, I'd be positive about the rain to aid her chances.
She displayed an electric change of gears to win easily at Navan, eased down in the end and she was the only filly to break 13 seconds at the final furlong, and the acceleration from 8f to 9f was different great, literally, with a furlong timed at 11.66.
Joey Sheridan, who rode her in the Salsabil said after: "She's a high-class filly and she was unlucky to bump into another high-class filly the last day.
"I ended up getting a lovely position there in the box seat. The whole way down to the furlong pole I was just filling her up, waiting for a gap. I kind of knew it was going to open up, so I wasn't really in any panic.
"She has a lot of ability and she is going to keep coming forward.
"Her dam was a very good mare, so I am sure she will probably follow suit."
At [11/2] she looks a bet, but just win only as I think the trip could draw about some improvement again.
Back Thundering On in the 16:00 at Epsom on Friday
Betfred Epsom Dash Tip - Saturday, Epsom, 15:15: Back Tatterstall EW @ 12/113.00
A race for the lead would be an interesting side market for the "Dash", the famous five furlong madcap race and a front-runner with speed to burn is Tatterstall for Michael Dods.
Now, there is a little caveat as I want good ground and quick would be nice, so we are playing with the forecast a little, but he won a 5f sprint at Goodwood in 2024 from a mark in the high 80s in a time of just over 55 seconds - running 10.11 and 10.28 seconds in the 2nd and 3rd furlongs.
Since Goodwood, he hasn't been seen much. In fact just twice last term and was well beaten in both runs and bombed out at York in August.
Fleeting appearances mean there might be an element of unfinished business with this sprinter so it was pleasing to see some sort of nice run at Thirsk in May - his first outing for 247 days. He shaped well, showed his usual early pace at 2f and 3f but looked rusty and short of fitness with the way he was responding to the after the 3f pole.
Fitter, quick and a year older, we can play him at an each-way price.
Back Tatterstall in the 15:15 at Epsom on Saturday EW
The Betfred Epsom Derby Tip - Saturday, Epsom, 16:00: Back Item @ 10/34.33
Another Classic and another no-show from Godolphin, and a race without the game's primary engine must be a huge cause for concern.
On we crack, however, and I don't see too much wrong with Item's claims after his excellent Dante victory. He showcased quite impressive stamina levels coming from off the pace at a finishing speed of around 103% and running a final furlong so much faster than the second-placed Action.
It's worth highlighting too where he came from both in the race and his previous victory. A lowly appearance at Bath is not the track of champions, but that experience of the far side of that lacklustre course isn't too far off what he'll feel under his hooves at Epsom, and the way he floated up the inside at York to make up ground on Action was impressive.
Indeed, Action was the one who made the running too, and to the naked eye, he looked an Epsom type.
I think Maltese Cross looks a stayer judged on his Lingfield Derby Trial victory - with both Bay Of Brilliance and Balzac in behind, but Item looks to have a little more class.
Back Item in the 16:00 at Epsom on Saturday