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Eight ITV races on Saturday and six priced up
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Double-handed for staying handicap
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Cold Case at 8/19.00 to get back on track
Newbury - 13:50 Steventon Stakes - No bet
Eight races for the ITV cameras on Saturday including the bonus of the Curragh Irish Oaks and for jumps' fans, it's Market Rasen's big day with the Summer Plate and Summer Hurdle two of the big races.
We'll kick off in time-order at Newbury and with six of the eight priced up on Sportsbook for the weekend, the 13:50 Steventon Stakes 1m2f sees a shortie with Al Aasy in as the 8/111.73 favourite for trainer William Haggas, who won the race last year with Grocer Jack.
Once second in a Coronation Cup, he looked a shadow of the horse he was last time on his return to the track after 420 days off at Newmarket.
Clearly the run was needed, but it won't be my idea of fun backing at 8/111.73 and Jim Crowley had a shocker at Ascot at the weekend on board La Yakel and Aldaary - beaten at 11/102.11 and 5/42.25 with both equally receiving awful rides. A win on Saturday on Al Aasy won't salve the wound for backers of those two.
As is often the case, German raiders are overlooked and often under-rated in the betting and Alessio at 8/19.00 potentially could be a mover, and with eight runners or more, would be the each-way bet. A German raider won the Hackwood on the card back in 2019.
The 4yo finished placed in the fancy dress city Cologne last summer, and he's double the price of Highland Avenue and Cadillac.
In short, I'll leave the race alone.
Newbury - 14:35 - Back Sweet William and Apparate
Newbury's 14:25 2m Handicap is more like it in terms of a bet and with plenty of jockeys already booked on the Tuesday, the likelihood is one of the bigger fields of the afternoon is in store.
The ground unfortunately could be the problem here with a tricky week ahead with dry days on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as an entree into a wet weekend.
Sweet William will be stepping out of Novice company to earn his handicap stripes for John and Thady G, and the 4yo has a mark of 88 for his first foray into 2m waters.
He won a Novice easily at Doncaster with the first-time blinkers and his second to Saint George (the subsequent Queen's Vase runner-up) at Southwell looks pretty good now in relation to his mark.
I think he'll stay and I am keeping him onside. It might be a weather watch horse though if the ground becomes very soft.
Apparate at 12/113.00 for Jamie Osborne is an each-way nomination and one that should cover the soft ground spoiler.
The 7yo hasn't stood much racing with just 12 career starts to date and made a fine return at Doncaster recently from a mammoth 507-day absence. He's up 3lb to 91 for that second behind Aimeric, and as a former Mallard winner in 2020, the staying distance might unlock some improvement.
His Mallard win came on good ground, but he has enough form in soft not to cause us any anxiety and while he might "bounce", he's talented but just not seen often.
Newbury - 15:00 - Back Cold Case
On duty for Tony Calvin this week, he'll note that Lezoo - a horse he put up for Newmarket is entered in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes over 6f at 4/15.00.
Her last three starts have been at the top level and this is easier, but is 4/15.00 too short to ask the question whether she has trained on?
Backers of Commanche Falls (the co-fav) will have no qualms on that score, but Lezoo has the back-class and was one of five 3yos entered up at the time of writing on Tuesday.
Cold Case is another of that generation, and he's a horse I've always had plenty of time for.
The 8/19.00 price on him reflects his 20L defeat in the Sandy Lane at Haydock, but I'd forgive any run at that track as I have no idea what the ground is there these days.
Previously he had Bradsell back in third in the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot, and with Bradsell coming out to win the King's Stand, that form has a good look to it.
Cold Case has been off 56 days and wasn't seen at the Royal Meeting, so whether he had a small setback I'd imagine we'll find out on Saturday from his trainer Karl Burke, but he'll get away with good to soft conditions and in such a wide-open Group 3, he has the potential to be a lot better.
The Weatherbys Super Sprint that rounds off the Newbury ITV action is just too difficult - even with a 13/82.63 favourite in Relief Rally.
The only surprise was to see only one Amo Racing horse with the filly La Guarida. I'd keep an eye out for Payment In Kind, who I thought had a nice run at the track on debut and got going late.
At 25/126.00 he might contract a bit this Saturday, but it's lottery on legs time and I imagine this will be TC's idea of hell.
As Pushkin said: "It's better to leave the party before the lights go out."
Market Rasen - 15:15 - Back Gloire D'athon
The Summer Plate at Market Rasen is the big betting race of the day, although like Newbury, rain is for the week give or take a couple of days and they've got some forecast for Saturday.
Keeping up with the summer jumpers is not high on my list from June to August, and it's a reminder to those with memories like sieves like me of the chasers you once remembered.
Two of the promising conditionals were booked up on Tuesday with the excellent Conor Rabbitt claiming 5lb on 14/115.00 chance Saint Arvans for trainer Maurice Barnes. While the 5lb of Beau Morgan will be utilised on Ben Pauling's Northern Bound 12/113.00.
Gloire D'athon 8/19.00 beat Killer Clown (in third) in the Clarke Trophy at Uttoxeter last time and he's a dead straight-forward horse who leads and jumps well - something we have seen with him at Sandown.
With winning form on soft and genuinely good, he's my only bet to look forward to on Saturday at Rasen.