USPGA Championship 2022 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: McIlroy has form to thrive

Dave Tindall
18 May 2022
5:00 min read

Rory McIlroy can get in the mix

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Dave Tindall arms you with the stats for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets in the USPGA at Southern Hills...

"No-one has a better strike-rate of Top 5s than Rory over the last 50 events (30%) so that's the market I'll play him in."

Back Rory McIlroy for Top 5 @ 5.39/2

Scottie Scheffler - Masters champ big fan of Southern Hills

As if the new US Masters champion and World No.1 doesn't have enough going for him, Scheffler also has some handy course knowledge and is a big fan of Southern Hills. "I played two college events here and one amateur event and I came out a couple weeks ago and played a practice round (shot a 64!). Outside of that, I didn't feel like Gil (Hanse) made any massive changes to the course and it still played fairly similar to how I remembered it other than a lot of the run-offs are a bit different. Everyone has their favourites, and Southern Hills is definitely one of mine. It's one of those places I feel like if you come and play it the first time you kind of know where to hit the ball. It's just really hard. It's right in front of you. You've got to put it all on display out here, and to get around this golf course it's not going to be just pure ball-striking or anything like that. It's going to take a variety of different things in order to play well out here. For me I've just been preparing like usual and my game feels like it's in a good spot." Not overthinking things is one of Scheffler's strengths and he's already building a strong record in this event with a fourth and an eighth.

Last four events: 15-18-1-1
USPGA form: 8-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 36%

Jon Rahm - Recent win has boosted Spaniard

Rahm came to Southern Hills on Monday and Tuesday of last week. "Yeah, it's a major championship worthy golf course. It's as simple as that. You can't hide. You have to do everything well. There's no surprise that the winning scores here have been as high as they have in the past and just a few people make it under par. You have to hit a lot of fairways out here. Iron game needs to be good, short game, putting, driving, everything, otherwise something really will have to excel for something else to be lacking." Rahm ranks 22nd on the All-Around ranking, the weaknesses his SG: Around The Green (154th) and Putting (108th). Those areas were much better (22nd ATG, 18th SGP) when he ended a modest run with victory in the Mexico on his latest start which suggests Rahm can have another strong week. He has two top 10s from his five previous PGA starts.

Last four events: 1-27-9-55
USPGA form: 8-13-MC-4-58
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 56%

Rory McIlroy - Double winner says iron play and chipping key

"Yesterday was the first time seeing the golf course. I really liked it. Love the green complexes. I love that he gives you options off the tee. One of the things I loved is the way they've cut the runoffs, it's very hard to putt from off the greens. They're trying to get wedges in guys' hands, which I really like. It's forcing you to chip instead of just like Pinehurst (2014 US Open) when you could putt from sort of everywhere. I feel good about my game. I've done some good work, I've led greens in regulation the last two tournaments I've played. That's something that hasn't quite been there. I focused a lot on iron play and chipping and putting last week in practice because I knew that was basically sort of going to be the key to having a good week this week."

With two PGA wins to his name already, McIlroy has the form to land a third.

Last four events: 5-2-MC-33
USPGA form: 49-33-8-50-22-MC-17-1-8-1-64-3-3
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 44%

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Justin Thomas - JT likes what he sees

It's fair to say Thomas is rather bowled over by this week's course. "I loved it. I thought as soon as I came here, I came Monday last week with playing Byron Nelson, and I loved it as soon as I saw it. I just like the old school type of design and golf course. You know, tree-lined. Big fall-offs and run-offs on the greens and the bermudagrass makes it very difficult to chip. So it puts a premium on having different techniques and different styles around the greens and also puts a premium on ball-striking to where you can hit the green where you have to chip less. I think this is an unbelievable major championship venue and I'm glad it's here. It's a sweet place." Thomas, who won the 2017 USPGA at Quail Hollow, added: "I think it's going to be a big week for driving. If I drive the ball well, I'll have a really good chance to win." He heads there on the back of tied fifth at the Byron Nelson on Sunday.

Justin Thomas chips at Augusta.jpg

Last four events: 5-35-8-35
USPGA form: MC-37-6-1-66-18
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 42%

Jordan Spieth - Hot form suggests Grand Slam in reach

Spieth reacquainted himself with Southern Hills last week. "I thought the golf course was fantastic. I loved it. I think the green complexes are perfectly fitting to the holes. The greens play maybe three quarters of the size that they actually are. There's a lot more runoffs than I remember into Bermuda chipping areas and into runoff areas that are mowed. So you can be left with a lot of really delicate little shots. I think it's going to be a really firm and fast PGA and I think it's going to be one of the higher scoring PGAs that we have seen. Now I did play it in 35 mile an hour winds with Justin (Thomas), so I saw it, I saw the teeth of it, so that could change. But it was a great test. I really enjoyed playing it." Spieth heads there on the back of a second place in the Byron Nelson and he has a history of performing well in majors after a strong finish the week before. Victory here would give him the Grand Slam which adds further incentive but maybe pressure too.

Last four events: 2-1-MC-35
USPGA form: 30-71-3-12-28-13-2-MC-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 28%

Patrick Cantlay - Serial winner needs majors boost

Cantlay has finished runner-up in Phoenix and Hilton Head so far this year and his most recent outing resulted in victory alongside Xander Schauffele in last month's Zurich Classic of New Orleans. That made it five wins since the start of October 2020, more than anyone over that period. "I'd say it's been a nice couple months' golf for me. My game feels good. I've been working on the right thing. I think really important to drive the golf ball in the fairway, like most major championships. The fairways are extremely wide this week, so being able to leave your golf ball in the fairway, it's a lot of drivers. So that's the only way you can really give yourself some chances around this golf course, especially with the small green complexes the way they are. You're not going to be able to hit all greens around this place with as long and as difficult as it plays, especially with the run-offs. If you can leave your golf ball in the right spot, I'm sure you can get up-and-down." Cantlay ranks 12th for Scrambling this season and 17th Off The Tee so that's a plus. The negative is just two top 10s in 20 starts in the majors.

Last four events: 1-2-39-26
USPGA form: 23-43-3-27-33
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 34%

Collin Morikawa - 2020 champion eyes third major

Morikawa focused on the importance of driving when asked about the course. "It's good. I've been able to see all 18 holes so far the past couple days, it tests every aspect of your game, but some tee shots you really have to put them in good spots even though the fairways are wider than where it was in '07 (USPGA won by Tiger Woods). But you've just got to place your ball really, really well. You've got to give yourself some good shots, you've got to give yourself some good areas to miss it, because sometimes the chips out here are going to be easy uphill and then sometimes you're going to be making 5 at best." With two wins, two top fives and a further top 10 in just nine major starts, he's already marked himself down as a very special talent in golf's biggest events. If there's a weakness this season, though, it's short game as he's 192nd for SG: Around The Green.

Last four events: 29-26-5-9
USPGA form: 8-1
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 42%

Cameron Smith - Course should suit Aussie

Smith was oozing positivity in his Tuesday press conference. "Game feels really good. Had a bit of a refresh, the last two weeks. Had three weeks off. Yeah, so it was good to set the clubs down for probably ten days, and then got back into it working hard. Had my trainer and psychologist over last week and did a lot of good work at home. Yeah, feels really good. I feel fresh. Played nine holes yesterday afternoon and played all 18 this morning. I think the golf course is great. I think it's going to be a really good test. I love the surrounds of the greens rolling off, same slopes we play back in Australia." The noted similarities to Augusta National in terms of rewarding good chippers also bodes well given his brilliant record there (3-10-2 last three years) and a bit of width in the fairways also helps his cause.

Last four events: 21-MC-3-1
USPGA form: 59-43-64-56-MC-25
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 32%

Xander Schauffele - Timing could be ideal for majors specialist

"It's tough. It's going to be really hard. I think PGA Championships for the most part, people feel like you can kind of shoot lower in them than most majors. But I think this year is going to be a different story. Southern Hills is no joke. You know, it's going to take a lot of patience and a lot of good quality shots just to kind of shoot around par." Schauffle admitted his season felt rather stale until recently. But then he won the Zurich Classic alongside Patrick Cantlay and closed with a 61 to add a top five at last week's Byron Nelson Championship. "I think mentally I'm in a good spot," says the man who since the start of 2017 has six top fives in majors and a further three top 10s. He's 22nd in Scrambling this season.

XANDER SCHAUFFELE.jpg

Last four events: 5-1-MC-35
Course form: MC-10-16-35-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 34%

Viktor Hovland - Chipping doubts over local star

Hovland was a popular ante-post pickg given that he lives in Oklahoma but the info that good chippers will be rewarded has dimmed the enthusiasm for a player ranked 210th and last in Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Hovland admitted on Tuesday that he's better chipping out of greenside rough although he's been practising playing from tighter lies over the last three weeks to adapt. He does sound confident though. "I feel like my game is good enough to really contend this week, and yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if I get off to a nice start and play well this week." Hovland also believes his strong driving is a good fit for the course but, back to the negatives, and he's never had a top 10 in a major.

Last four events: 29-27-18-33
Course form: 30-33
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 34%