US PGA Championship

US PGA Championship 2024: Our experts' best bets for Valhalla

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Brooks Koepka wins the US PGA Championship in 2023
Brooks lifted the trophy in 2023. Who will it be in 2024 at Valhalla?

Get the best bets for this week's US PGA Championship at Valhalla from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more golf betting experts...

US PGA Championship 2024: The Punter's Preview

Steve Rawlings: "Rory's victory here 10 years ago is his sole success on a Jack Nicklaus designed track. Muirfield Village is the Nicklaus track we visit the most on the PGA Tour and Rory's Memorial Tournament form reads an ordinary 10-5-MC-57-15-4-8-MC-32-18-18-7.

"In contrast, Patrick Cantlay loves Muirfield and his form figures there read 35-4-1-7-32-1-3-30. And he also won the ZOZO Championship at Sherwood Country Club.

"Jon Rahm is another to consider given he finished second to Cantlay at Sherwood and that he too has a great record at Muirfield.

"The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, has improving Muirfield figures reading MC-22-5-3 and given Muirfield, like the Dunes, has bentgrass greens, it's a great place to start for correlating course form but if you're going to back one player on the strength of his form around Nicklaus designed courses then it has to be Collin Morikawa.

"The 2020 US PGA Champion won his first PGA Tour title (the Barracuda Championship) at the Nicklaus designed Montreux in 2019, the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield in 2020 (and he also finished second there in the Memorial Tournament in 2021), and he won the Workday Championship at the Concession Club in 2021...

"A one-over-par 72 on Saturday appears to have killed off Collin Morikawa's challenge at the Wells Fargo Championship given he trails the leader, Xander Schauffele, by eight with a round to go, but the 2020 winner is in decent form.

"Morikawa was a well beaten third at Augusta behind Scheffler, but he sat within a stroke with a round to go (beaten by seven) and he followed that with a respectable ninth in the RBC Heritage.

"Still only 27, Morikawa's form at Nicklaus tracks is a huge plus and I thought he was fairly priced at 30.0."

US PGA Championship 2024 Each-Way Tips: Picks from 25/1 to 200/1

Dave Tindall: "Max Homa didn't set the PGA Tour alight in the opening months of the season but when he got the chance to show his new-found confidence in the majors he took it with third at the US Masters last month.

"Homa's Augusta record before that was MC-MC-48-43; it was a significant improvement.

"His assessment: 'I feel like I took a big leap. The rhetoric on me, and this is from myself, as well, is I have not performed in these things, and I performed for all four days. I didn't throw a 65 in there and sneak my way in. I had to sleep on this every single day, this feeling and kind of this monkey on my back. I know I can play in these things well now.'

"It's the arc of Homa's journey in the majors that appeals most to me rather than thinking Valhalla is perfect for him. But there are good reasons to believe that this lenghty course will suit.

"He's long enough (averaging over 300 yards off the tee on the PGA Tour this season), has performed well at Jack's Muirfield Village (fifth and sixth on his last two starts at Memorial) and has form of 3-1-7-5-10 on the last five occasions he's played courses with Bentgrass the sole strain or at least in the mix.

"A top eight at the Wells Fargo last week (Eighth Strokes Gained: Tee To Green) was a nice warm-up and perhaps now there's almost a feeling that his career has flipped having once been a regular PGA Tour winner who flopped in the majors."

US PGA Championship Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Three to back up to 389/1

Steve Rawlings: "The two-time major winner, Dustin Johnson, is very weak in the market and to a certain extent, I can see why.

"Out of sight, out of mind as the saying goes and with fewer people watching the LIV Tour, it's perhaps understandable that he's been drifting steadily since being matched at a low of 42.0 earlier in the year.

"Johnson's form dipped after he won in Las Vegas in February but his seventh last time out behind Koepka in Singapore, where he putted really nicely with rounds of 67-70-66 was eye-catching.

"He missed the cut in this championship in 2021 and 2022, having finished runner-up in 2019 and 2020 and last year's 55th was a disappointing performance too, although he sat second after round one.

"He didn't play Valhalla 10 years ago as he was having an extended break from the game due to 'personal issues'. But with a win and two seconds at Glen Abbey, and two top-four finishes at Muirfield Village, he's demonstrated his liking for a Nicklaus design with bentgrass greens and he should love it here.

"Rapidly approaching his 40th birthday, the languid Californian isn't one to get too stressed and if he starts nicely again this year he may just stick around at a huge price."

US PGA Championship 2024 First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 33/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "I've gone for Bryson DeChambeau in my outright preview but he looks a strong bet for FRL too. The 'Scientist' set the pace at last month's US Masters thanks to a 65 while he was also the first-round leader in this event at Oak Hill 12 months ago via a 66.

"Notably he was the solo leader after 18 holes in both. None of this split stake business!

"DeChambeau should really love this lengthy par 71 and it's worth noting that Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods both topped the Driving Distance stats when they won their US PGAs at Valhalla.

2Woods was the first-round leader in that 2000 event while Rory sat fourth after the opening lap.

"Back to Bryson and he was also the 18-hole leader in the 2019 Masters and started out with rounds of 63 (Jeddah) and 65 (Hong Kong) in two recent LIV Golf events.

"He begins his bid for US PGA glory at 08:59 local time from the 10th alongside my next pick."

US PGA Championship 2024 Tips: Three place acca bets for Valhalla

Steve Rawlings: "My idea of the best longshot this week is the 22-year-old Californian, Akshay Bhatia, and he looks a terrific price at 6/4 to finish inside the top 40.

"I've doubled him up with Rory McIlroy to finish inside the top 20, and that pushes the odds up to over 2/1.

"Having won his last two tournaments, Rory is full of pep and I'd be very surprised if he failed to finish inside the top 20 at a venue where he's already won."

US PGA Championship 2024 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Count on Collin

Dave Tindall: "A few differing doubts hang over some of the leading players this year but all seems to be well in the world of Collin Morikawa and I'll back him at 4.2 on the Betfair Exchange for Top 10.

"Morikawa has two of those (one a win) in his four US PGAs and, unlike other big names, has taken to majors like a duck to water. It could also be significant that Valhalla is a Jack Nicklaus course as he has wins over three of the Golden Bear's layouts in his short career."

US PGA Championship 2024: Major form stats

Andy Swales: "If it wasn't for the brilliance of Scottie Scheffler, the young Swede would have won last month's Masters Tournament, in what was his first-ever start in a Major Championship. He finished second at Augusta, with a healthy three-stroke margin over the three players who tied for third. At the beginning of 2023, the current world No 6 was not even ranked inside the top 3,000."

US PGA Championship 2024 Player Guide: Profiles of the top 50 in the betting

Matt Cooper: "One shot off the first round lead when the championship was last held at Valhalla in 2014, the Northern Irishman went one clear at halfway and it stayed that way all week. It was a fourth major triumph and it would have appeared bizarre to suggest then that wait 10 years (and counting) to find win number five.

"A slow start to the year has been transformed by victory in New Orleans with pal Shane Lowry two starts ago and a fourth - and dominant in the final round - Wells Fargo Championship victory last week." In the last five years he is 8-for-10 at landing a top 10 in the non-Masters US majors.

US PGA Championship 2024: 10-year trends point to...

Dave Tindall: "These trends articles have produced top picks who finished runner-up and in the places many times while others ranked highly have gone on to win.

"Take last month's US Masters. Top-ranked Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy finished in the pack but third-ranked Scottie Scheffler won and, more interestingly, fourth-ranked Tommy Fleetwood took tied third, his best ever Augusta finish.

"Fleetwood's name was surprisingly high in the trends and yet he wasn't in the top dozen in the betting, going off at prices of 33s and up. By all means, back the guy who comes out on top but there's money to be made, hopefully, from slightly less obvious names who rank highly."

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