US PGA Championship

US PGA Championship 2024 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Count on Collin

American golfer Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa can thrive again in a major

Dave Tindall arms you with the stats for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets at Valhalla...

  • Morikawa picked to record another Top 10

  • Niemman can finally launch first major bid with a Top 5

  • Check out all our US PGA content here


Scottie Scheffler - New Dad seeking third major

Scheffler is once again the hot favourite after a sparkling run of form on the PGA Tour that has seen him produce Tiger-esque figures of four wins and a runner-up finish over his last five starts. That, of course, includes his second Masters green jacket at Augusta last month.

Finally, he's become a father for the first time. The exciting news of wife Meredith about to give birth didn't impede his focus at Augusta or the following week's RBC Heritage which he won too and Scheffler seemed his usual relaxed self when talking to reporters after arriving at Valhalla on Monday.

Second, fourth and eighth in three of his four US PGA starts, the stats show that this is the major won most by players in their 20s. Good news for 27-year-old Scheffler.

Last four events: 1-1-2-1
US PGA form: 2-MC-8-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 18%, Top 5: 52%, Top 10: 64%


Rory McIlroy - Shock news rocks perfect prep

Everything looked perfect on the surface for McIlroy when he roared to a five-shot win at the Wells Fargo on Sunday. That was his second straight victory and a perfect send-off for Valhalla where he won the 2014 US PGA, his most recent major win.

But then came the bombshell news on Tuesday that McIlroy had lodged court papers in Florida on Monday to bring an end to his marriage of seven years to Erica Stoll. That's very sad and creates all sort of different noise around him this week.

That he won at Quail Hollow with it hanging over him now seems rather remarkable although McIlroy also triumphed at Wentworth in 2014 having calling off wedding plans with tennis star Caroline Wozniacki just days earlier. Sanctuary of the golf course and all that.

Last four events: 1-1-33-22
US PGA form: 7-8-49-33-8-50-22-MC-17-1-8-1-64-3-10
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 46%, Top 10: 62%


Xander Schauffele - Top 5/10 could be ideal markets

Schauffle racked up his 12th top 10 in majors from just 27 starts when placing eighth at Augusta. He may not have won one yet but the Californian been a profitable follow in these markets (six of those 12 doubled as top fives).

His form this year also suggests that Top 5/10 is the best way to play him. The former Olympic champion just can't get over the winning line and yet second place at the Wells Fargo represented a fifth top five of the campaign and eighth top 10.

Schauffele ranked 1st for Approach and 2nd for both Off The Tee and Tee To Green at Quail Hollow so he's close. Some negatives? He's never had a top 10 on a Jack Nicklaus course (plenty of top 20s however) and only has one top 10 in this major.

Last four events: 2-23-18-8
US PGA form: 18-13-MC-10-16-35-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 32%, Top 10: 50%


Brooks Koepka - US PGA specialist seeks fourth title

Koepka's tally of five majors puts him alongside legends Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson and three of those have come in this event. If he lifts the Wanamaker Trophy again on Sunday he'll have the same number of US PGAs as Tiger Woods.

Koepka's wins came at Bellerive (2018), Bethpage Black (2019) and last year at Oak Hill. They followed on from back-to-back top fives in the 2015 and 2016 editions.

The 34-year-old has a reputation for gearing all his attention towards majors but, like Scheffler and McIlroy, he also comes in off a victory after capturing the LIV Golf Singapore event earlier this month.

Last four events: 1-9-45-45
US PGA form: 1-55-2-29-1-1-13-4-5-15-70
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 28%


Jon Rahm - Spaniard under the radar

Rather than a rampaging bull, Rahm appears more like a subdued animal wandering around a field at the moment. Moving to LIV has been good for the bank balance but his heart still seems a little torn.

He's yet to win a LIV event despite a string of top 10s and the Spaniard made a very weak defence of his Masters crown when only 46th at Augusta last month.

That said, Masters winners often struggle the year after and if Rahm can get his competitive juices flowing again, he could easily add to his stellar tally of 12 top 10s, eight of those top fives, in majors since the start of 2018.

Last four events: 10-3-45-4
US PGA form: 50-48-8-13-MC-4-58
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 40%, Top 58: 60%


Ludvig Aberg - Swede hoping to match Masters display

Punters had to show a leap of faith with Aberg at Augusta last month as he was playing in his very first major. This column had faith and tipped him for a top 10 at 4.216/5 and he obliged with a briliant second place.

It was hardly a surprise. The Swede has looked so accomplished since bursting onto the scene and already has wins on both sides of the Atlantic and the thrilling experience of a Ryder Cup victory with Europe.

There is a concern this time about a sore knee that forced him to skip last week's Wells Fargo Championship. Those on the ground at Valhalla have seen him repeatedly rubbing it although the issue was there pre-Masters and it didn't stop him.

Last four events: 10-2-14-8
US PGA form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 36%


Bryson DeChambeau - Monster hitter ready to thrive

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods were the biggest hitters of the week when winning the 2014 and 2000 US PGAs at Valhalla and that must bode well for DeChambeau, the longest driver in the game.

He's also become very good at majors. He won the US Open by six in 2020, has finished in the top four at two of his last three US PGAs and was a contender at Augusta last month, eventually posting a tie for sixth.

DeChambeau hasn't exactly lit it up on the LIV Tour this season but he gives the impression that he'll relish raising his game back in the company of the PGA Tour's elite.

Last four events: 27-26-6-7
US PGA form: 4-38-4-MC-MC-33
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 14%, Top 10: 32%


Collin Morikawa - 2020 winner a majors specialist

Morikawa achieved the very rare feat of winning this trophy on his US PGA debut. That was at Harding Park on just his third major start and on his eighth he added the Open Championship at Royal St George's.

Since then, he's delivered a pair of top fives in the 2022 majors and showed his ability to thrive at this level once more when tied third at April's US Masters.

His game has ticked over nicely since and he certainly has a great profile for success this week. That's also shown up by him ranking second only to Scheffler in my 10-year trends preview.

Last four events: 16-23-9-3
US PGA form: 26-55-8-1
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 28%


Max Homa - Californian cracking the code

Max Homa is my outright pick this week and the main reason for that is him finding his feet in majors at long last. His repeated failures had been rather baffling but finally he seems to have cracked the code.

After 16 blanks in these markets (he actually missed the cut in nine), Homa recorded his first top 10 with tied 10th at last summer's Open and he added a first top five with tied third in last month's US Masters.

Prior to that he'd at least made the cut in three of his five US PGAs and that included tied 13th at Southern Hills two years ago. Perhaps this could be the best major for a player who has six PGA Tour wins, five of those since early 2021.

Last four events: 8-55-3-25
US PGA form: 55-13-MC-MC-64
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 38%


Joaquin Niemann - Chilean needs to step up in majors

DeChambeau went 15 majors before his first top 10 at this level and Homa 16. That suggests patience is needed with some golfers and Niemann is certainly on that list.

The young Chilean has gone 20 majors without wikipedia yellow although a more positive spin is that he's made the cut in 12 of the last 14, including tied 16th and tied 22nd in the last two Masters.

Niemann has three LIV wins since the start of December and Datagolf have him at No.8 in their world rankings. A huge driver, Valhalla could be where he really gets his career in the majors up and running.

Last four events: 7-3-22-9
US PGA form: MC-23-30-MC-MC-71
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 46%


Summary

A few differing doubts hang over some of the leading players this year but all seems to be well in the world of Collin Morikawa and I'll back him at 4.216/5 on the Betfair Exchange for Top 10.

Morikawa has two of those (one a win) in his four US PGAs and, unlike other big names, has taken to majors like a duck to water.

It could also be significant that Valhalla is a Jack Nicklaus course as he has wins over three of the Golden Bear's layouts in his short career.

I have a sneaky feeling that when Joaquin Niemann finally shows up well in a major, it will be a serious bid.

Valhalla looks an ideal stage for him with length required so let's push the boat out and back the Chilean to jump straight in with a Top Five. That pays 9.617/2 compared to the 4.94/1 for a Top 10.

As noted, this is the best major for younger players - 20-somethings have won seven of the last 10 - so that looks a good omen for both Niemann (25) and Morikawa (27).


Now read Dave's US PGA 10-year trends preview


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