Back Spieth to beat major disappointment Cantlay
There are plenty of things that don't make a lot of sense but high on the list of life's mysteries is the poor major record of the world number four, Patrick Cantlay.
His tied third at the US PGA Championship in 2019 is the highlight and his tied ninth at Augusta earlier that year is his only other top-ten from 21 starts.
Cantlay's missed three of his last six cuts in majors and tied 15th in last year's US Open is his best finish in three years. It's a ridiculously poor record for a player with so much ability and it's one that he really should be improving upon, but it isn't only restricted to majors...
Cantlay hasn't had a top-ten in a WGC event since he finished sixth in the WGC Mexico Championship back in 2019 and he's missed the cut in each of the last three renewals of the Players Championship.
The 5/2 about him missing the cut again here looks fair but the bet I like is Jordan Spieth to beat him in the Tournament Match Bets section on the Sportsbook at 11/10.
The 2015 US Open winner has been in fair form of late, edging out Cantlay in extra time at The Heritage before finishing second at the Byron Nelson, 34th in the US PGA Championship, seventh at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 18th in the Memorial Tournament.
Perez and Horsfield can triumph in Top 20 market
It's far from unusual to see a few in-form Europeans contend at this major and only last year we witnessed the British Masters playoff protagonists, Richard Bland and Guido Migliozzi, contending. Bland led at halfway and Migliozzi finished fourth.
Dave Tindall makes a great case for Victor Perez in his First round Leader piece and he looks a fair each-way bet in the Top Continental European Market but I'm happy to keep things simple and play him in the Top-20 market.
Sam Horsfield, who finished fifth on the Liv Golf Tour last week, won the Soudal Open last month and he too could go well. He's an each-way option in the Top English, Top GB&I and even the Top Liv Golfer markets but again, I'm keeping it simple and playing him in the Top-20 market.
Put faith in wire-to-wire winner
If any of Dave's three picks end the day in front, the 10/1 about there being a wire-to-wire winner won't look great. Aaron Wise may well be capable of kicking on and claiming the crown, but I'd have my doubts about Perez and Scott Stallings, but should any of the market leaders end Thursday in front, the 10/1 will look very big.
It's eight years since Martin Kaymer led from start to finish at Pinehurst and he's the last man to achieve the feat but as highlighted in the preview, up with the pace is the place to be in a US Open and Kaymer was the fourth wire-to-wire winner this century so it's not an uncommon occurrence.
I came close to opposing the two market leaders in the Top South American market. Joaquin Niemann's major record isn't great yet and Mito Pereira needs to lift himself after throwing away the US PGA Championship at the 72nd second hole last month.
I can see both of those two underperforming and they may just be vulnerable to either Sebastian Munoz, who's capable of some quite brilliant golf at times, as he showed recently at the Byron Nelson, or the Brazilian amateur, Fred Biondi, but instead I'm going to sign off with one of the many Featured #OddsOnThat options - Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood & Louis Oosthuizen all top 20 finish (Inc. ties).
Trio of big names to contend
As detailed in the preview on Monday, Justin Rose was backed in the outright market on Sunday evening when he threatened to break 60 in round four of the Canadian Open and if he'd have been trading yesterday, at the price he is today (out to 110.0109/1), he'd have been alongside Louis Oosthuizen in the Find Me a 100 Winner Column.
I obviously like both their chances and it's impossible not to have noticed just how well Tommy Fleetwood has been playing of late (fifth in the US PGA Championship). He's very hard to get a across the line but a top-20 finish is perfectly possible.
I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter