Find Me a 100 Winner: Look to Louis to rise again

Steven Rawlings
14 June 2022
4 min read

Louis Oosthuizen in action at last year's US Open

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We're off to Massachusetts this week for the 122nd edition of the US Open and Steve Rawlings has picked out two outsiders to trade at Brookline...

"Louis has always been more interested in farming than golf and Reed positively thrives at being the bad guy."

2 pts Louis Oosthuizen @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

The 12.011/1 favourite, Jon Rahm, won last year's edition of the US Open but it's been a decent tournament for outsiders this century.

Since Webb Simpson won at the Olympic Club 10 years ago, Gary Woodland, three years ago, is the only US Open winner to go off at a triple-figure price but this major has produced plenty of surprise winners of late.

Following Retief Goosen's success at 50.049/1 in 2004, Michael Campbell, a qualifier at Walton Heath, caused one of the biggest shocks in the tournament's history in 2005 by holding Tiger Woods and co at bay at Pinehurst. Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera won the next two editions at triple-figure prices, as did the 2009 winner, Lucas Glover. Had 650.0649/1 chance, Rocco Mediate, got the better of Tiger Woods in extra-time at Torrey Pines in 2008, we'd have witnessed four huge outsiders in-a-row winning.

The 2010 winner, Graeme McDowell, was far from strongly fancied too, so this has been a decent event for outsiders over the last 20 years and this has also been a major that produces championship specialists.

Brooks Koepka, who won the US Open back-to-back in 2017 and 2018, before finishing runner-up in 2019 and fourth last year (missed 2020 with injury), is one such specialist and he's drifting like a barge. I don't think he's going to quite reach triple-figures but he may be worth backing at 80.079/1 and above.

Brooks hasn't been at his best in 2021 but don't be surprised to see him pop up this week. The same can be said of my two selections, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed.

Look to Louis to Rise Again

Louis Oosthuizen arrives in Massachusetts in search of his fourth top-seven finish in-a-row in the US Open and he was also second in 2015.

Oosthuizen finished tied for 23rd the following year at Oakmont and he filled the same position at Erin Hills in 2017 but he's improved on those two efforts every year since, putting up event form figures since 2018 reading 16-7-3-2.

The 2010 Open Championship winner isn't just a US Open specialist, having traded at a low of 1.824/5 at Torrey Pines in this event 12 months ago, he was matched at a low of just 2.01/1 at the Open Championship a month later, before finishing third to Collin Morikawa at Royal St Georges. In addition to winning the Open at St Andrews 12 years ago, he's finished runner-up in all four majors at least once.

I like Louis in the outright market and he's a fair price at anything north of 8.07/1 to finish inside the top-10 again.

Louis caused a viral sensation when he posted a video of himself lip syncing Andrea Day's Rise Up after he'd finished second at the 2017 US PGA Championship but having defected to the Liv Golf Invitational Series, he's not going to be seen in the same lovable light now and that's something that has to be factored in with both my picks.

We've already seen that the Liv Golf guys are being posed tricky questions in press conferences but we're yet to see what sort of reception they get from the crowds. It could get quite hostile and it's going to be a tricky week for all of them but Oosthuizen and Reed strike me as just the types to let it all wash over them.

Louis has always been more interested in farming than golf and Reed positively thrives on being the bad guy.

2 pts Louis Oosthuizen @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pts Louis Oosthuizen - Top 10 finish @ 8.07/1

Pantomime villain, Patrick, to thrive at Brookline

At first glance, Patrick Reed's US Open form figures, that read 35-14-MC-13-4-32-13-19, can't be described as exceptional but it's worth bearing in mind that he led at the halfway stage of both the 2015 and 2020 editions before poor third rounds saw him drop away to finish 14th and 13th.

Reed hasn't won since he demolished the field at the Farmers Insurance Open last year (won by five) but he's been showing signs of life of late, with his seventh in the Charles Schwab Challenge two starts ago the highlight.

Reed has a habit of rising to the big occasion and in addition to winning the US Masters in 2018, and prestigious titles like the Farmers and the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he's also won a couple of WGCs and a pair of FedEx Cup events.

Patrick Reed wins Farmers Insurance.jpg

With a poor reputation, thanks to a couple of dubious on course rulings, he's used to playing the villain on the PGA Tour and he won't give a hoot how hostile the reception gets now he's announced his defection to the Liv Golf set-up.