The Punter's US Open In-Play Blog: Burns leads by a stroke at Oakmont

• Just four under-par with a round to go

• Stats strongly point to the front four

• Can someone emulate Miller and win from miles back?

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08:30 - June 15, 2025

After overnight rain had softened the course, making the greens more receptive, Oakmont played slightly easier than it had over the first two days and a dozen men broke par in round three of the US Open. And three of the 12 were inside the top five places at halfway so the leaderboard hasn't changed dramatically since the midway point. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Sam Burns -4 3.02/1
Adam Scott -3 4.3100/30
JJ Spaun -3 5.49/2
Viktor Hovland -18.07/1
Carlos Ortiz Lev 26.025/1
Tyrrell Hatton +1 29.028/1
Thriston Lawrence +1 120.0119/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +2 160.0159/1
Robert Macintyre +3 170.0169/1
Cameron Young +3 180.0179/1
Scottie Scheffler +4 50.049/1
+4 and 500.0499/1 bar

The world number 22, Sam Burns, who was generally an 85.084/1 chance before the off, after losing a playoff in Canada last Sunday, leads the 125^th US Open by a stroke and trading at 2/13.00, he's clearly the man to beat but the stats suggest the price isn't generous.

Burns has won five times previously on the PGA Tour and he also won the Savannah Golf Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour having led by a stroke through three rounds back in 2018, but on the three occasions he's led with a round to go on the PGA Tour he's finished seventh, third and second.

Given the last 26 US Open winners were all within four of the lead with 18 to play we probably can't look too far down the leaderboard but only three of the previous nine US Open winners at Oakmont have been in front with a round to go.

I've listed the position of the nine previous winners through 54 holes, together with their first three round scores, position on the leaderboard, and strokes they led or trailed by, below.

1927 - Tommy Armour 78-71-76, solo second, one off the lead
1935 - Sam Perks 77-73-72, tied for the lead with Jimmy Thomson
1953 - Ben Hogan 67-72-73, 1^st, leading by one
1962 - Jack Nicklaus 72-70-72, T5, two off the lead
1973 - Johnny Miller 71-69-76, T13, six off the lead
1983 - Larry Nelson 75-73-65, T3, one off the lead
1994 - Ernie Els 69-71-66, 1^st, leading by two
2007 - Angel Cabrera 69-71-76, T7, four off the lead
2016 - Dustin Johnson 67-69-71, T2, four off the lead

Having lost their halfway leads, the last two winners here, Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson, both trailed by four.

Sitting tied second behind the clear leader, Shane Lowry, DJ was a 4.84/1 chance with a round to go but Cabrera had drifted all the way out to 50/151.00 before he bounced back to win in 2007 and it would be anybody's guess as to what price Johnny Miller would have been back in 1973.

I'm pretty sure that wasn't any in-running betting on golf back then but if there was, he'd have been a triple-figure price with 18 to play given he trailed by six in a tie for 13^th place.

Miller's sensational 63 here on Sunday 52 years ago is widely regarded as one of the best rounds of all time.

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who trails his close friend, Burns, by eight in a tie for 11^th, may need something like Miller's magnificence to claim his fourth major and it's very hard to look past the leading pack.

Adam Scott is the only man in the field not to post an over-par round this week and his 67 yesterday was equalled only by Carlos Ortiz and bettered by no one.

The world number 42 has put all his experience to good use so far this week and he's a 10/34.33 chance to create history.

The longest gap between a player's 1st and 2nd major championship win is 11 years - Julius Boros and Ben Crenshaw.

Adam Scott's lone major win was more than 12 years ago.

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 14, 2025

Scott became the first Aussie to win the US Masters when he beat the 2007 US Open winner, Cabrera, in a playoff back in 2013. Can he win the US Open at the 24^th attempt?

The 44-year-old finished fourth ten years ago at Chambers Bay but that was after a 64 on Sunday from off the pace so this is the first time since his event debut in 2002 that he's had a legitimate chance to win.

Viktor Hovland's approach play has been magnificent this week and he's a huge danger to the leading three but the three bogeys he made yesterday was the least he'd made all week, and he can't afford too many errors today given he trails by three.

He talked after his round yesterday about how he's really struggling with certain tee shots here and as much as it would be great to see the likable Norwegian win his first major, I can't hep but think he's a stroke or two too far back, unless the front three all struggle.

My Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Cameron Young, is inside the top ten and he's very capable of shooting silly low scores, as he demonstrated in last year's Travelers Championship when he shot 59 in round three, but Oakmont is considerably tougher than next week's venue, TPC River Highlands, and I suspect my only realistic chance of escaping with a profit this week is with JJ Spaun, who I backed at after round one at 14/115.00.

Spaun has hung around doggedly all week so far and he performed admirably at the Players Championship back in March when he was beaten by Rory McIlroy in a Monday playoff, so I'm leaving the event alone now to cheer him on.

He was slightly disappointing in-contention at the Sony Open back in January when, having led by a stroke with a round to go, he finished third, beaten by one, after a 68 on Sunday, but when he won his sole PGA Tour title to date, at the Texas Open three years ago, he won by two having been tied for the lead with 18 to play.

All things considered, I think we can expect a solid enough final round from the 34-year-old world number 25, and it may just be enough. Either way, I'll be back tomorrow with the De-brief to look back on what's bound to be a dramatic finale.

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09:00 - June 14, 2025

With Oakmont just starting to dry out and fire up, anyone that made the cut at the 125^th US Open would have welcomed the rain that fell late in the day yesterday that should have just taken the sting out of the monstrously tough layout.

Play was suspended due to lightning at 20:15, with one of the contenders, Thriston Lawrence, needing to return to the course early today to clear up a three-foot par putt at the ninth hole, so we haven't officially reached the halfway point.

Having averaged 4.63 strokes over its par of 70 on day one, the second-round average is currently sitting at 74.74, so Oakmont is playing every bit as tough as expected.

The likes of Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, and Shane Lowry, along with the defending champion, Bryson DeChambeau, are all going to miss the cut and at the halfway stage there are just three players under-par. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 8:50.

Sam Burns -3 5.14/1
JJ Spaun -2 9.617/2
Viktor Hovland -17.26/1
Ben Griffin -1 14.013/1
Adam Scott Lev 18.535/2
Victor Perez +1 65.064/1
Thriston Lawrence +1 (thru 17) 100.099/1
Brooks Koepka +2 24.023/1
Russell Henley +2 36.035/1
Si Woo Kim +2 50.049/1
Thomas Detry +2 75.074/1
Tyrrell Hatton +3 60.059/1
Keegan Bradley +3 75.074/1
Jason Day +3 120.0119/1
Carlos Ortiz +3 120.0119/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +3 140.0139/1
Emiliano Grillo +3 190.0189/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +3 240.0239/1
Max Greyserman +3 250.0249/1
Sam Stevens +3 290.0289/1
Chris Kirk +3 420.0419/1
Adam Schenk +3 1000.0999/1
Scottie Scheffler +4 9.417/2
Jon Rahm +4 28.027/1
Robert Macintyre +4 120.0119/1
Daniel Berger +4 150.0149/1

Selected others
Rory McIlroy +6 65.064/1
Xander Schauffele +4 150.0149/1

+4 and 200.0199/1 bar

Up with the pace is usually the place to be in a US Open and 27 of the last 29 US Open winners have been within three strokes of the lead at the halfway stage. 

Webb Simpson trailed by six strokes at this stage before winning the US Open at Olympic Club in 2012 and Brooks Koepka was five adrift of the four-stroke halfway leader, Dustin Johnson, at Shinnecock before he defended the title in 2018, but he was only tied for fourth.

The stats suggest we can't look too far down the leaderboard and that the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who currently sit in a tie for 23^rd and seven off the lead, are in big trouble, but I'm far from convinced we can put too much credence in the historic stats given what we've witnessed over the first two days.

This is the 10th time that Oakmont has staged the US Open, so I've listed the position of the nine previous winners at halfway, together with their first two round scores, position on the leaderboard when known, and strokes they led or trailed by, below.

1927 - Tommy Armour 78-71, solo third, two off the lead
1935 - Sam Perks 77-73, solo fourth, four off the lead
1953 - Ben Hogan 67-72, 1^st, leading by two
1962 - Jack Nicklaus 72-70, T4, three off the lead
1973 - Johnny Miller 71-69, T3, three off the lead
1983 - Larry Nelson 75-73, seven off the lead
1994 - Ernie Els 69-71, T7, four off the lead
2007 - Angel Cabrera 69-71, 1^st, leading by one
2016 - Dustin Johnson 67-69, 1^st, leading by one

As many as seven of the last 15 US Open winners were leading or tied for the lead at halfway and three of the nine US Open winners at Oakmont were in front at this stage, but Larry Nelson gives hope to the chasers given he trailed by seven at halfway in 1983, and the way the course is playing again this year, an off the pace winner definitely can't be ruled out.

Viktor Hovland and Sam Burns both showed yesterday, when they moved up 17 and 32 places respectively, that Oakmont is such a difficult venue that if you do have a round that goes against the grain, you can make up lots of ground.

I'll look at the record of the winners here after 54 holes tomorrow but the last two to win here trailed by four after three rounds and Johnny Miller came from miles back in 1973.

Given only six men broke the par of 70 yesterday, Burns' 65 was a remarkable knock and he's gone from being a 95.094/1 chance trailing by six to the 4/15.00 favourite leading by one and the omens are good looking at the stat below but I'm not convinced.

Sam Burns will be the 9th player since 2000 to hold a 1-shot lead through 36 holes at the U.S. Open.

Only 2 of the previous 8 went on to win:
2007 Angel Cabrera (Oakmont)
2016 Dustin Johnson (Oakmont)

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 14, 2025

Burns came with a late rattle to get into a playoff at the Canadian Open last week but he wasn't convincing in extra time and I highlighted in the De-brief that I felt Burns is going to be one to follow going forward when he's off the pace.

What Justin's tweet doesn't show, is that both Angel Cabrera and Dustin Justin lost their leads in round three before bouncing back to win on Sunday and I can see something similar happening to Burns.

Victor Hovland, alone in third, looks a very fair price at 6/17.00 and I can see Keegan Bradley hanging tough over the weekend while others wilt in the demanding conditions but I'm adding just one at the halfway stage - the experienced Aussie, Jason Day, who shot a brilliant three-under-par 67 in round two.

It's now 10 years since Day won the US PGA Championship but the former world number one is more than capable of adding a second major championship and he's being slightly overlooked at 120.0119/1 given he's no bigger than 80/181.00 on the High Street.

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10:35 - June 13, 2025

The first round of the 125^th US Open is all done and dusted and at a rain-softened Oakmont only 10 players broke par.

Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20am

JJ Spaun -4 14.013/1
Thriston Lawrence -3 90.089/1
Brooks Koepka -2 14.527/2
Si Woo Kim -2 27.026/1
Sungjae Im -2 29.028/1
Jon Rahm -1 6.611/2
Ben Griffin -1 30.029/1
Thomas Detry -1 75.074/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -1 80.079/1
James Nicholas -1 1000.0999/1
Collin Morikawa Lev 15.529/2
Russell Henley Lev 42.041/1
Jordan Spieth Lev 44.043/1
Robert Macintyre Lev 50.049/1
Cameron Young Lev 60.059/1
Adam Scott Lev 75.074/1
Denny McCarthy Lev 90.089/1
Bud Cauley Lev 140.0139/1
Ryan McCormick Lev 1000.0999/1

Selected others
Scottie Scheffler +3 7.87/1
Bryson DeChambeau +3 22.021/1
Ludvig Aberg +2 30.029/1
Rory McIlroy +4 42.041/1
Viktor Hovland +1 42.041/1
Xander Schauffele +2 46.045/1
Correy Conners +2 95.094/1
Sam Burns +2 95.094/1

+1 and 110.0109/1 bar

Although the afternoon starters averaged almost a stroke less than the AM wave (0.89), the front two on the leaderboard, JJ Spaun and Thriston Lawrence, both began the championship yesterday morning and the leader, Spaun, was the only man in the field to go bogey-free.

Back in 2016, on the last occasion that Oakmont hosted the US Open, the eventual winner, Dustin Johnson, was the only man to shoot a bogey-free round on day one and it transpired to be the only one all week.

Oakmont is a really tough track and 20 players in the field failed to record a single birdie on day one.

As highlighted in the In-Play tactics section of the preview, up with the pace is usually the place to be in a US Open.

The last four winners have all been trailing by just two strokes after 18 holes and we've seen as many as five wire-to-wire winners this century.

The furthest any winner has trailed by after round one this century is six strokes but 22 of the 25 winners were within four strokes of the lead after 18 holes.

The last three winners at Oakmont were all just one off the lead after day one and there are already similarities between this year's renewal and the last occasion that we were here given -4 leads and only ten players broke par. Only 11 men were under-par after round one nine years ago and Andrew Langley led on -4.

This is the 10th time that Oakmont has staged the US Open, so I've listed the position of the nine previous winners, together with their opening round score, position on the leaderboard when known, and strokes they led or trailed by, below.

1927 - Tommy Armour 78 - T14, five off the lead
1935 - Sam Perks 77 - T28, six off the lead
1953 - Ben Hogan 67 - 1^st, leading by two
1962 - Jack Nicklaus 72 - T4, two off the lead
1973 - Johnny Miller 71 - T5, four off the lead
1983 - Larry Nelson 75, six off the lead
1994 - Ernie Els 69, T2, one off the lead
2007 - Angel Cabrera 69, solo 2^nd, one off the lead
2016 - Dustin Johnson 67, T2, one off the lead

The stats are most certainly against the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy given we have to go all the way back to 1998 to find the last occasion that someone won the US Open from as far as seven back after round one and there has only been three occasions in the last 60 years that the winner has trailed by as many as seven after round one.

Making up ground in this championship is notoriously tough. At Pinehurst last year, the top five were all inside the top six places after round one, and, as demonstrated below, the leaderboard didn't change too much between the end of round one and the end of round four here nine years ago.

Round One
Andrew Langley -4
Dustin Johnson -3
Lee Westwood -3
Shane Lowry -2
Sergio Garcia -2
Scott Piercy -2

Result
Dustin Johnson -4
Jim Furyk -1
Shane Lowry -1
Scott Piercy -1
Sergio Garcia EV
Branden Grace EV

Those that dominated the market before the off are going to need to get their skates on today and the stats are against them but for anyone that did back Scheffler, DeChambeau, Rory or anyone else trailing by six or more, there is hope.

Oakmont winners, Tommy Armour, Sam Perks and Larry Nelson all started slowly but I'm in no rush to top-up on Scheffler, who looked out of sorts yesterday.

Scottie Scheffler was left frustrated after his approach to the green pic.twitter.com/Y6ueL7zkCb

-- Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) June 12, 2025

Rahm is the most likely winner and the deserved favourite but I'm happy to swerve him given his recent efforts in-the-mix.

He won twice on the LIV Golf circuit last year but since switching to the rebel tour, he's not been anyone near as reliable as he once was in-contention.

Having been matched at as low as 2.6413/8, he lost the plot at the US PGA Championship last month after missing a seven-foot birdie putt at the 14^th hole on Sunday at Quail Hollow which would have seen him draw alongside the eventual winner, Scheffler, and he went on to finish tied for eighth, beaten by seven!

A month after he finished fifth at the Olympics, having been matched in-running at just 1.182/11, he lost a playoff at the Open de Espana in September after he'd been matched at just 1.434/9 with six holes to play and he's been inside the top-three after round one three times on the LIV Golf Tour since March this year but he finished fifth, fourth and eighth.

He may well go on to take the title for a second time but there's better value elsewhere.

Russell Henley, who shot level-par yesterday, was a fair price last night at 50.049/1, but he's shortened up considerably overnight and so too have two of the four men I've backed after round one.

The two-time winner, Brooks Koepka, who's also won the US PGA Championship three times, is trading at fractionally bigger than the 14.013/1 I took last night but JJ Spaun has edged in a point and Ben Griffin has moved more than ten points since he finished his opening round.

The in-form Griffin, who came into the event with current form figures reading 8-1-2, was trading at odds in excess of 40.039/1 after he'd posted his one-under-par 69 yesterday morning but he's now trading at 30.029/1. I took 36.035/1 last night but he's still a fair price at 30.029/1.

He's full of confidence with nothing to lose and the 29-year-old American has the right profile.

Koepka confessed to having received a lengthy talking to by his coach, Pete Cowan, on Monday and it seems to have done the trick.

"I'll put it this way: JT thought he had to come check on me in the bunker."

Brooks Koepka opened up about a heated conversation he had with his coach Pete Cowen, and how it helped him. pic.twitter.com/PgdZC4XNKn

-- GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) June 13, 2025

Whether Koepka can kick on from here is debatable, but nobody can question his temperament when he gets in-the-mix in a major and he looks fairly priced at around 14/115.00.

I was also happy to take a chance on the leader.

Spaun has never before held a clear lead on the PGA Tour after round one but on the last occasion that he was tied at the top after 18 holes he performed admirably, eventually losing a Monday playoff to Rory McIlroy at Sawgrass.

He has a similar profile and style to the 2023 Open winner, Brian Harman, and he may just hang around all week.

Given Thriston Lawrence was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks when he finished fourth in Belgium three weeks ago, and he was my sole selection when he missed the cut at the KLM Open last week, I felt I couldn't let him go unbacked at a triple-figure price after his excellent start but he's more of a just in case sanity saver wager.

It may seem a bit excessive to back as many as four players after the opening round but up with the pace is the place to be in this major and I've had only small bets on Spaun and Lawrence.

If I had to narrow it down to just two, Koepka and Griffin would be my idea of the best value options after round one.

I'll be back in the morning when we've reached the halfway stage.

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Pre-Event Picks:
Scottie Scheffler @ 4.216/5
Sepp Straka @ 60.059/1

In-Play Picks:
Brooks Koepka @ 14.013/1
JJ Spaun @ 15.529/2
Ben Griffin @ 36.035/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 100.099/1
Jason Day @ 120.0119/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Cameron Young @ 150.0149/1
Maverick McNealy @ 200.0199/1