The Punter's De-brief: Playoff success for Rory at the Players

• Rory seals second PGA Tour title of 2025 at Sawgrass

• Should Scheffler's Masters odds be longer?

• Read my Singapore Classic preview here

• Read my Valspar Championship preview here

Pre-event 18.017/1 chance Rory McIlroy was trading at 8.27/1 with a round to go at the Players Championship when he trailed the 54-hole leader, JJ Spaun, by four but it didn't take the Northern Irishman long to close the gap.

Rory opened round four with a birdie at one and an eagle at two and, when play was suspended due to dangerous weather, was in front by a stroke, having played 11 holes of round four.

Within minutes of play resuming, following a four-hour delay, Rory had stretched the lead to three when he birdied 12 as Spaun bogeyed the par five 11^th . Rory  was matched at just 1.162/13 but winning is never easy and we were far from finished.

Rory dropped a shot at 14 and parred his way after that, whereas Spaun, who was matched at a low of 2.01/1, put in a charge, birdying 14 and 16 and came this close to winning it on the 18^th green.

More golf awaits tomorrow.@JJSpaun's birdie putt on the 72nd hole comes out just short to force a playoff at @THEPLAYERS. pic.twitter.com/50rTalDgL6

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 16, 2025

Ahead of Monday's three-hole playoff, Rory was steadily getting backed into around 1.645/8 and the punters were right to get behind him.

When we got underway, with the wind at his back, Rory hit a driver off the tee and a wedge into the green at the par five 16^th. A two-putt birdie there put him in front and the writing was on the wall for poor Spaun at the infamous par three 17^th.

After Rory had found the green with a nine iron, Spaun's eight iron shot flew over the green and into the water and that was effectively that.

Rory made a four to Spaun's six and, with a three-stroke lead, the 18^th hole was a formality.

Rory didn't have his A-game with him last week. He ranked only 51^st for Strokes Gained: Around the Green and he's just the second winner of the Players Championship to hit less than half the fairways throughout the week. But that could bode well for the future.

Winning is hard and it's even harder when your game isn't on point.

It was his second Players title and his third victory on St Patrick's Day. Poor Spaun, meanwhile, is the 10th player in-a-row to fail to convert a one-stroke 54-hole lead at Sawgrass.

Should Scheffler be drifting further in Masters betting?

Having become the first man to successfully defend the Players Championship title 12 months ago, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, failed in his attempt to win it a third time. He's without a win in five starts in 2025.

He ranked only 45^th for both Strokes Gained: Around the Green and SG: Putting when finishing tied for 20^th at Sawgrass. But he's still trading at just over 5/16.00 to do something only Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo have ever done, and that's successfully defend the US Masters title.

With just three weeks to go before the year's first major, Scottie is running out of time to find his game and I'm a little surprised to see his price holding up so well, especially now the money is coming for Rory.

Having played superbly in windy conditions when winning at Pebble Beach, and having won the Players on a blustery day, Rory is clearly performing better in the wind than ever before and he's arguably improving with age.

Rory has shortened up in the US Masters market and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him go favourite. 

Sedgefield link strengthened again

It was noticeable that the last three Valero Texas Open winners - Akshay Bhatia, Corey Connors and JJ Spaun - were all in-the-mix heading into round four but once again the link between Sedgefield Country Club and Sawgrass was firmly cemented.

Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Davis Love III and K.J Choi have all won both the Wyndham Championship and the Players this century. This year, the Players was dominated by those with form at the North Carolina layout.

Last year's Wyndham winner, Aaron Rai, contended early on and two Wyndham winners, Camilo Villegas and Lucas Glover, were tied for the lead after round one.

With a round to go, 160.0159/1 chance Spaun and 1000.0999/1 shot Bud Cauley sat first and second and they both have Sedgefield form in the bag too.

Spaun finished third there last year behind Rai. Cauley, who has only ever finished inside the top three places on the PGA Tour three times, finished third at Sedgefield way back in 2012.  

And he finished third behind Garcia and Tim Clark - two former winners at Sawgrass!

Is the draw bias consigned to the bin?

Prior to last year, only two of the previous 17 winners (Tiger Woods in 2013 and Martin Kaymer in 2014) had been drawn to kick the event off on Thursday afternoon and concentrating on the early starters on day one has been the way to go. But things have changed over the last two years.

The AM-PM side of the draw was advantaged to the tune of 2.18 strokes in 2023 when Scottie Scheffler won the first of his two titles. Over the last two years, however, a PM-AM draw has been preferable.

When successfully defending 12 months ago, Scheffler was drawn in the afternoon on day one and that side of the draw averaged 0.97 of a stroke less than those drawn AM-PM. The bias was even more pronounced this year, with the PM-AM side averaging 1.69 strokes better than those drawn AM-PM.

Both playoff protagonists began the week on Thursday afternoon and Tom Hoge, who finished tied for third, was the only player who teed it up on Thursday morning to finish the week inside the top-five players.

Whether that's just a blip or a sign of what's to come is debatable but it is explainable.

The Players moved from May to March in 2021and that has made the early starts harder. With thick rough and cooler temperatures, finding fairways is more important and it's been harder to get off to a great start on Thursday morning.

Those playing in the afternoon are now playing in warmer weather, with drier dew-free rough less of an issue.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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