• Hot putting key to success at Innisbrook

• Deere Run and River Highlands form holds up well

• Read my Singapore Classic preview here

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Tournament History

Having first been staged in the autumn of 2000, as an opposite field event, the Valspar Championship switched to March 18 years ago to become part of the Florida Swing.

The 2020 edition was lost to the pandemic, and the 2021 edition was staged in May after the PGA Tour's resumption, but this is the fourth year running that the event is back in its now traditional March slot as the final event on the Florida Swing.

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Venue

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,340 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 71.42

Designed by Larry Packard, Copperhead was opened in 1974. Prior to the establishment of this event the course was restored in 1999, and it underwent a $4.5m restoration after the 2015 renewal.

All the fairways were re-grassed with Celebration Bermuda and the greens re-grassed with Tif Bermuda.

It's a tough undulating, tree-lined track with many dog-legged fairways and an unusual layout, with four par fives and five par threes.

The primary rough has exceeded three inches in each of the last four renewals and water is in play on a number of holes. The smaller than average greens are usually set to run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.

The four par fives (holes one, five, 11 and 14) are consistently the easiest holes on the course and the last three holes are tough and known as the Snake Pit...

With water right and trees left, there's no bailout off the tee whatsoever at the par four 16^th and it's been the hardest hole on the course in five of the last six renewals.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:30 in the UK on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices

2024 - Peter Malnati -12 650.0649/1
2023 - Taylor Moore -10 75.074/1
2022 - Sam Burns -17 27.026/1 (playoff)
2021 - Sam Burns -17 80.079/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey -8 34.033/1
2018 - Paul Casey -10 28.027/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin -14 90.089/1
2016 - Charl Schwartzel 48.047/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Valspar?

The driving stats don't appear to be particularly important here.

Last year's winner, Peter Malnati, ranked only 59^th for Driving Distance and 47^th for Driving Accuracy and the last eight winners have averaged only 29.1 for SG: Off the Tee. 

The first two home, Malnati and Cameron Young, ranking tied sixth for Greens In Regulation and the last eight winners have had an average ranking of 7.63 for Strokes Gained: Approach and 5.13 for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

As many as 15 of the 23 course winners to date have ranked 11th or better for GIR.

Finding greens with regularity is key but a great week with the putter is usually essential.

Malnati ranked third for Strokes Gained: Putting and first for Putting Average and the 2023 winner, Taylor Moore, who ranked 26^th, and the 2009 winner, Retief Goosen, who ranked a remarkably 57^th, are the only two course winners to have ranked outside the top 20 for PA.

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Is There an Angle In?

This isn't your typical Floridan test so looking at results at other events in the state won't necessarily help but there are at least four courses that appear to correlate nicely so we're not short of angles in!

John Huston, K.J Choi, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have all won both this event and the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Lots of players have been placed at both events and some have been placed in one and won the other. The 2021 Sony winner, Kevin Na, was second here in 2014 and the multiple Sony winner, Ernie Els, traded at odds-on to win this one in 2012.

As many as four men have also won this event and the John Deere Classic - Jordan Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh, and it should really be five. The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, threw this one away ten years ago.

The 2021 John Deere winner, Lucas Glover, was fourth here in 2007, 11^th last year, and he sat third at halfway here four years ago. And last year's runner-up, Cam Young, who's still yet to win on the PGA Tour, led the JDC by two at halfway in 2023.

The 2024 runner-up, Adam Schenk, who was matched at a low of 2.01/1, has JDC form figures reading MC-6-4-W-4 and the 2017 John Deere winner, Bryson DeChambeau, only finished 27th here on debut seven years ago and he withdrew in 2019 on his only other appearance in this event but even he has form at both courses given he won the 2014 All-American Athlete Conference Championship at Copperhead, and I see that Brett Quigley, who never got to win on the PGA Tour, finished second in both events, so that's definitely a tournament to consider.

Schenk subsequently lost a playoff in the Charles Schwab last year, an event won by Burns the year before, and they're two of a number of players to have played well both here and at Colonial Country Club and last but not necessarily least, form at TPC River Highlands, home of the Travelers Championship, also crosses over regularly.

Young shot 59 at TPC River Highlands, just a few months after finishing second here and Jordan Spieth links all five venues nicely. Third place is his best finish at the Sony Open so far, but he's won here, at Colonial, at TPC River Highlands and twice at Deere Run.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Course form stands up ridiculously well here and in its relatively short history, we've now seen four men win the event twice and a number of winners have also finished runner-up. The 2015 winner, Spieth, traded at a low of 2.1211/10 in 2023 before eventually finishing third.

Burns, Casey, Choi and Goosen have claimed the prize on multiple occasions and Choi is one of five winners to have also finished second. He finished runner-up behind Jim Furyk in 2010 and Furyk himself subsequently finished second in 2012. O'Hair, Senden (twice) and Singh have all also won the event and finished second and Patrick Reed, who was second to Casey in 2018, has finished runner-up twice.

Overseas players have a reasonably strong record and an American has won only 11 of the first 21 editions.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Peter Malnati tied second - trailing by four 15.014/1
2023 - Tyler Moore tied fourth - trailing by two 13.012/1
2022 - Sam Burns tied third - trailing by three 4.94/1
2021 - Sam Burns - tied for the lead 3.814/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 3.55/2
2018 - Paul Casey T11th - trailing by five 120.0119/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin - led by four strokes 1.51/2
2016 - Charl Schwartzel - solo eighth - trailing by five 32.031/1

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In-Play Tactics

Having trailed by six strokes after round one six years ago, Adam Hadwin hit the front at halfway and he extended his lead to four with a round to go, Casey was in front before round four in 2019, and Burns was tied with Keegan Bradley with a round to go in 2021 but straightforward front-running winners are a rarity here.

Jim Furyk was three clear through 54 holes before winning in 2010 but he's the only other winner to hold a clear lead going into the final round and 12 of the last 17 winners have come from behind.

Having sat second at halfway, trailing Corey Conners by two, Casey began the final day trading at 120.0119/1 in 2018, after a poor back-nine on Saturday had seen him drop outside the top-ten. Casey recorded the win having made just 21 putts in round four but he was far from the first winner to come from off the pace...

The 2016 winner, Charl Schwartzel, who was matched in-running at a high of 90.089/1, trailed by four after rounds one and two and he was a 32.031/1 chance on Sunday morning, as he trailed by five. The 2015 winner, Spieth, was matched at a high of 30.029/1 after a slow start in 2015 and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, hit a high of 150.0149/1 after he struggled at the beginning of the week. Spieth sat tied for 38th and five off the lead after round one and Reed trailed by seven in a tie for 80th but as many others have done before them, they were able to make up the lost ground.

Having hit a high of 290.0289/1, Senden was still tied for 35th and fully eight shots back at halfway ten years ago, Mark Calcavecchia, the 2007 winner, was ten back after round one and still six back at halfway and although he was tied for the lead after round three, Streelman was eight behind after day one and still seven behind at halfway 11 years ago.

Luke Donald won a four-man playoff here in 2012 and he and his playoff protagonists had all started slowly. They were five, six, six and eight strokes back after round one and still three, three, four and seven back at halfway, so don't give up hope if your picks don't really spark on Thursday or Friday. This is definitely a course where lost ground can be made up over the weekend.

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Market Leaders

Tommy Fleetwood will pitch up at Innisbrook in reasonable form this year having 2025 figures reading 21-22-5-11-14 and on his two previous visits here he's finished 16^th in 2022 and third a year later.

He's a very obvious candidate but he's notoriously poor in contention at times and he's still yet to win on the PGA Tour.

Justin Thomas' second round 62 at the Players Championship last week was an incredible knock and a glimpse at just how good the former world number one is on his day, but the days are just too infrequent lately.

His off the pace victory in the US PGA Championship back in 2022 was his last win on Tour and although he has reasonable course form numbers reading 10-18-MC-13-3-10-64, he makes no appeal at 16/117.00.

The third favourite, Sepp Straka, who currently trades at 24.023/1 is the only one towards the head of the market that I was tempted by and if he gets drawn on what appears to be the right side of the draw, I might yet back him if I'm fast enough to grab a decent price once the tee times are announced.

In his next start after winning The American Express at the end of January, he led the AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach through rounds two and three and he's finished 11^th, fifth and 14^th over the first three weeks of the Florida Swing, so he's bang in-form.

He finished 46^th on debut way back in 2019 and he missed the cut here on his only other visit 12 months ago but he's a winner of the aforementioned John Deere Classic and it's worth noting that he was tied for the lead six years ago after a 66 in round one so the venue must suit his eye.

* UPDATE @ 17:20 on Tuesday

Tee times have been published and Straka is off early so I've added him at 23.022/1. 

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Look to Luke to star again

Despite securing his card last time out at the Cognizant Classic, Luke Clanton is still yet to turn pro but he's more than capable of emulating last year's American Express winner, Nick Dunlap, who won that event as an amateur.

This is only Clanton's 13^th start on the PGA Tour, but he's already shown his capabilities with second place finishes at both the John Deere Classic and the RSM Classic and a fifth at the Wyndham Championship.

He really does look like a superstar in the making, and I thought he was just worth chancing at 65.064/1, although I'm wary of getting too involved before the off with the weather forecast so volatile.

If we don't get any suspensions in play, and if the forecast is correct, an early start on day one looks like the way to go.

The wind is predicted to pick up to in excess of 20 mph on Thursday afternoon and it isn't forecasted to significantly drop until Friday afternoon so, if the prediction is correct, an AM-PM draw over the first two days could be hugely beneficial.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Read more golf tips, previews and analysis here

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