Porsche Singapore Classic: Bank on Brown at 74/1

• Look to Qatar, Ras Al Khaimah and Bahrain for clues

• Trading drama likely on Sunday

• Read my Valspar Championship preview here

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Tournament History

After a week off following the conclusion of the International Swing at the Joburg Open in South Africa, the DP World Tour returns on Thursday with the first event on the Asian Swing - the Porsche Singapore Classic.

This is only the third of edition of the event, but if this year's renewal is anything like the first two, we're in for an exciting finale.

The first two winners, Ockie Strydom and Jesper Svensson, both shot 63 on Sunday to win from outside the top ten places with 18 to play.

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Venue

Classic Course, Laguna National Golf and Country Club, Tampines, Singapore

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,420 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 71.32 

Laguna National hosted the now defunct Singapore Masters on the DP World Tour between 2002 and 2007 (the inaugural edition in 2001 was staged at Singapore Island Golf course) and it was also used for the final edition of the Ballantine's Championship in 2014, when Chile's Felipe Agular shot 28 on the back nine to win by a stroke, having trailed by four with a round to go, but both events were staged on the Masters Course. 

This week's tournament is being staged at the Classic Course - known locally as 'The Beast' - so it's debatable whether any of that old form is worth consideration.

Described on Laguna's website as visually stimulating and refreshingly bold in its presentation, the Classic has a reputation as one of the most difficult and dramatic tests of golf in Asia, but the first two winners have amassed winning scores of 19 and 17-under-par. 

The Classic Course features 146 bunkers, undulating platinum paspalum putting surfaces and five water features. 

This article posted on the DP World Tour website before the inagural edition, describing all 18 holes, is well worth a read.

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Weather Forecast 

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 5:00 (UK Time) on Thursday 

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First Two Winners with Pre-event Prices

2023 - Ockie Strydom -19 120.0119/1
2024 - Jesper Svensson -17 70.069/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Singapore Classic?

With only two editions to evaluate, we're operating in the dark to a certain extent but for what's worth, here's the data from the first two editions, starting with the top five with all the traditional stats.

2023
Ockie Strydom -19       DD 32 DA 22 GIR 10 SC 9 PA 22
Sami Valimaki - 18       DD 10 DA 31 GIR 4 SC 36 PA 16
Alejandro Del Rey -15  DD 1 DA 59 GIR 55 SC 22 PA 17
Marcel Schneider -15  DD 37 DA 11 GIR 20 SC 4 PA 29
Jeunghun Wang -15      DD 47 DA 7 GIR 40 SC 7 PA 37

2024
Jesper Svensson -17             DD10 DA 66 GIR 24 SC 14 PA 7
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 17  DD 73 DA 55 GIR 6 SC 35 PA 5
Sam Bairstow -16                   DD 3 DA 18 GIR 17 SC 56 PA 1
Andy Sulivan -15                     DD 57 DA 10 GIR 2 SC 56 PA 19
Mattheau Pavon -14              DD 30 DA 41 GIR 64 SC 14 PA 10

DD - Driving Distance
DA - Driving Accuracy
GIR - Greens In Regulation
SC - Scrambling
PA - Putting Average

And here they are again with the Strokes Gained stats.

2023
Ockie Strydom -19 SG: T 39 SG: APP 2 SG: ATG 5 SG: T2G 2 SG: P 58
Sami Valimaki - 18 SG: T 12 SG: APP 13 SG: ATG 53 SG: T2G 11 SG: P 9
Alejandro Del Rey -15 SG: T 13 SG: APP 25 SG: ATG 33 SG: T2G 14 SG: P 20
Marcel Schneider -15 SG: T 24 SG: APP 33 SG: ATG 4 SG: T2G 7 SG: P 28
Jeunghun Wang -15 SG: T 16 SG: APP 28 SG: ATG 1 SG: T2G 3 SG: P 57

2024
Jesper Svensson -17             SG: T 9 SG: APP 31 SG: ATG 9 SG: T2G 12 SG: P 8
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 17  SG: T 41 SG: APP 2 SG: ATG 22 SG: T2G 7 SG: P 20
Sam Bairstow -16                   SG: T 15 SG: APP 45 SG: ATG 27 SG: T2G 30 SG: P 4
Andy Sulivan -15                     SG: T 44 SG: APP 3 SG: ATG 51 SG: T2G 17 SG: P 33
Mattheau Pavon -14              SG: T 73 SG: APP 51 SG: ATG 32 SG: T2G 73 SG: P 11

SG: T - SG: Tee
SG: APP - SG: Approach
SG: ATG - SG: Around the Green
SG: T2G - SG: Tee to Green
SG: P - SG: Putting

And here's the incoming form for the top five over the last two years.

2023
Ockie Strydom 1-W-63-MC-MC
Sami Valimaki 58-11-10-MC-MC
Alejandro Del Rey 30-23-MC-MC-28
Marcel Schneider 23-34-MC-75-19
Jeunghun Wang 48-MC-MC-28-MC

2024
Jesper Svensson 47-2-16-11-67
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 67-MC13-23-14
Sam Bairstow 23-13-MC-MC-15
Andy Sullivan 43-MC-36-4-23
Matthieu Pavon 1-3-28-52-MC

None of the ten players to finish inside the top five in each of the first two editions had finished inside the top ten in their previous outings so strong current form hasn't been essential and the first and second in the inaugural edition had both missed their two previous cuts.

Greens In Regulation and Putting Average have been the most important stats, but nothing stands out, although with just two editions to evaluate, that's probably understandable.

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Look to Qatar, Ras Al Khaimah and Bahrain for clues

At the inaugural edition two years ago, two players to finish inside the top five - Sami Valimaki and Jeunghun Wang - had previously won the Qatar Masters and last year's result suggested the two events may correlate too.

Although the greens at Doha were still Bermuda when Wang won there, they were still grainy and tricky to read, much like the paspalum greens are here.

Valimaki won at Doha in 2023, after the greens were changed from Bermuda to paspalum, and he also finished second at the Mexico Open on the PGA Tour last year, around another course with paspalum greens.

Valimaki also won the Oman Open back in 2010, around yet another layout with paspalum dancefloors, so that's probably our best angle in.

The Ras Al Khaimah Championship and the Mauritius Open, staged at the end of last year, and the Bahrain Championship, are three events staged on courses with paspalum greens and form in Bahrain was very well represented 12 months ago.

Svensson won here after finishing second to Dylan Frittelli in February with the inaugural winner of this event, Strydom, back in fourth and Paul Casey, who finished sixth last year, won at the Royal Bahrain Golf Club back in 2011.  

Alejandro Del Rey has finished third and seventh here and he was sitting fourth at the halfway stage in Bahrain in 2024. He missed the cut there this year but that's perhaps not surprising given he knits everything together nicely having won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship the week before. 

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Ockie Strydom tied 11^th, trailing by four (price unknown)
2024 - Jesper Svensson tied 13^th, trailing by five 90.089/1 

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In-Play Tactics

Theres been all sorts of drama at each of the first two renewals with both winners shooting 63 on Sunday, having began the final round outside the top ten.

Strydom had trailed by seven after rounds one and two and he was still four adrift after 54 holes two years ago, but he won cosily in the end, having been matched at 1000.0999/1 during his opening round.

Del Rey was matched at 2.01/1 when he had led by three strokes after a fast start to round four and Valimaki hit a low of just 1.21/5 when he subsequently led by three, but it was Strydom that finished the event the strongest, birdying four of the last six holes.

Svensson, who was matched in-running at a high of 420.0419/1 last year (sat 35^th at halfway), had begun the final round trailing by five in a tie for 13^th but he started like a man possessed on Sunday, birdying the first two and eagling the third.

After two more birdies at six and eight, the Swede made back-to-back bogeys around the turn, but he got straight back on track with birdies at 12 and 13 and another eagle at 14 and when he birdied 17 and 18 to tie the Strydom's course record, he was matched at just 1.11/10 but it wasn't a done deal.

Sitting in the clubhouse, two clear of the rest, the Swede's lead looked comfortable enough but after birdies at 14, 15 and 16, and a ridiculous par save on 17, pre-event 90.089/1 chance, Aphibarnrat, eagled the 72^nd hole to take it to extra time!

The Thai was matched at a low of 1.564/7 after a great drive at the second extra hole and Svensson hit 1.071/14 when he found the green in two when Aphibarnrat missed the green long, but long odds-on backers had to wait to collect when both men made par.

The event was finally decided on the third extra hole (the par five 18^th again) when Aphibarnrat's third shot from below the front of the green flew through to the dell at the back of the green.

If you plan to trade any of your positions, it may make sense to do so in-between rounds given the event will be played out throughout the early hours in the UK and liquidity won't be great in-play.

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Market Leaders

After a couple of great weeks in Florida, the world number 14 Robert MacIntyre heads the market ahead of a couple of LIV Golf players - their new recruit, Tom McKibbin, and Paul Casey.

Macintyre missed the cut in the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines last month, but he was sixth in the Phoenix Open before that and in the last two weeks, he's finished 11^th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and ninth in the Players Championship. He arrives in Singapore in great form but I'm quite surprised to see him in the field.

The 28-year-old Scotsman missed the cut here two years ago and, after he had a full-on fortnight in Florida, I'm happy to swerve him here.

McKibbin has started life on the LIV Tour fairly well and he and Casey will be far better acclimatised than MacIntyre given they both played in the LIV Golf Singapore event last week at Sentosa Golf Club - the former home of the now defunct Singapore Open.

McKibbin put himself behind the eight ball with a 74 in round one and he eventually finished 25^th but in his first three starts on the LIV circuit, he's finished 15^th, seventh and sixth.

Casey commands plenty of respect given he finished sixth here last year and arrives in fair form having finished fifth in Hong Kong and 10^th in Singapore. But he was leading with a round to go at Fanling a fortnight ago before his 69 in round three saw him slip to fifth and I'm happy to swerve him too.

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Bank on Brown

I'll have at least one other selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but my sole selection for now is Daniel Brown - who has contended at all three of the courses mentioned above.

Brown's current form figures read 27-2-10-14 but they really don't tell the whole story and he could very easily contend again here given the track should suit him perfectly.

He sat in a tie for second at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship at halfway before a poor weekend saw him slip to 27^th and he lost in a playoff in Bahrain the following week before finishing 10^th in Qatar, despite shooting 78 on Saturday the week after that.

After three weeks off, he was never really in the hunt at the Joburg Open, where he finished a very respectable 14^th . But he's clearly playing nicely this year and far better than he was last year when his weekend off here kicked off a run of six straight missed cuts.

Brown is a 50/151.00 chance on the High Street so I was more than happy to back him at 75.074/1 on the Exchange.

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Cantero chanced at triple figures

I backed Ivan Cantero at 100.099/1 on Monday and I was going to include him in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, but I can't see him drifting back out to a big enough price now.

He was matched at 100.099/1 again on Tuesday morning but he's now trading at 80.079/1.

Much like Brown, Cantero has form in the correct events, finishing fifth in Ras Al Khaimah, fourth in Bahrain and 14^th in Qatar.

The big hitting Spaniard was only 49^th on debut 12 months ago so that's a bit of a negative given he'd finished sixth two weeks prior in South Africa, and he arrives in Singapore after a disappointing run of form.

He missed the cut in Kenya, finish 25^th in the South African Open and missed the cut again last time out at the Joburg Open so hopefully a week off has done him some good.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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