US Masters 2026 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Look to Ludvig

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Scottie Scheffler - double winner not been at his best

Imagine being told after Scheffler won The American Express on his first start of the season that if you laid him for Top 10 at Riviera, Bay Hill and Sawgrass you'd have won your bet each time. And at very short odds-on prices too. 

But that's the reality after he could only manage 12th, 24th and 22nd in those events, shooting at least one round of 73 in each and losing strokes on approach in the first two.

The World No.1 has also not been able to plan his usual Augusta warm-up schedule due to the arrival of a new baby. There are grounds to oppose him on the Exchange in either the Top 5 or Top 10 markets but dare you do that at Augusta given his stellar course form?

Last four events: 22-24-12-4
Masters form: 4-1-10-1-18-19
Last 50 starts - Win: 28%, Top 5: 58%, Top 10: 76%

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Jon Rahm - 2023 winner looks ready to shine

It can be difficult to assess the worth of LIV results but Rahm couldn't have done too much more on his chosen Tour after a win, three seconds and a fifth in five 2026 starts.

Combine that with his record here - a win in 2023 and four other top 10s in the last eight editions - and it's no wonder that many have him as the one to back this week.

The Spaniard perhaps couldn't get into the flow at Majors after his initial move to LIV but he now has three top 10s in the last five and just missed adding another here when 14th in this event 12 months ago. 

Last four events: 2-5-1-2
Masters form: 14-45-1-27-5-7-9-4-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 48%, Top 10: 80%

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Rory McIlroy - will Rory feel liberated after 2025 win?

Follow that! It seems rather a throwaway line after Rory's epic 2025 win but there are solid grounds to think he can't flourish again this year given that just three defending champions since 2007 have managed a top 10 when returning 12 months later.

The doubts, which have seen McIlroy drift to fourth favourite in the outright betting, have been exacerbated by a bad back which forced him to withdraw from Bay Hill at halfway and then make a rather tame defence of The Players Championship where he finished 46th.

McIlroy has no less than eight top 10s at Augusta, five of those doubling as top fives, but let's also note that in the last five he also has two missed cuts and a 22nd. 

Last four events: 46-WD-2-14
Masters form: 1-22-MC-2-MC-5-21-5-7-10-4-8-25-40-15-MC-20
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 50%

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Bryson DeChambeau - Scientist working out Augusta

Bryson once suggested Augusta National would be an easy puzzle to solve due to an outrageous claim that par for him here was really just 67 due to his immense hitting.

DeChambeau's PR game is much improved now, as is his record here. After missed cuts in 2022 and 2023 and no top 20s in his first seven visits, he's finished sixth (2024) and fifth (2025) in the last two. He played with Rory in the final pair last year before fading.

The two-time US Open champion is a massive force at this level these days - he has six top 10s (five are top sixes) in the last eight Majors - and another big week looks likely, especially as he comes in having won the latest two events on LIV. 

Last four events: 1-1-24-3
Masters form: 5-6-MC-MC-46-34-29-38-21
Last 50 starts - Win: 12%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 58%

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Xander Schauffele - 2024 Majors hero ready to strike

Schauffele has a remarkable record in the Majors. He finished tied fifth in his first (the 2017 US Open) and now has 17 top 10s from 34 starts, including a pair of wins in 2024. You can throw in another nine other top 20s too.

That 50% top 10 strike-rate rises to 62.5% at Augusta where he's banked five in eight starts, including each of the last three. 

After a rather sluggish opening to 2026 following an underwhelming 2025, Schauffele has really picked up in the last couple of months with a seventh at Riviera followed soon after by third at The Players and fourth at the Valspar. 

Last four events: 4-3-24-7
Masters form: 8-8-10-MC-3-17-2-50
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 48%

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Ludvig Aberg - Swede like a duck to water at Augusta

We all know the stat about no first-time winner here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but Aberg almost defied that on debut in 2024 when finishing runner-up after briefly having a piece of the final-round lead.

He backed it up with seventh last year and that could have been much, much better after he again found himself tied at the top, this time after 15, before dropping four shots on 17 and 18.

Outside of Augusta, the Swede has a curiously poor record in his other six starts in the Majors (MC-12-MC-MC-MC-23) but he'll have another crack at this on the back of three straight top fives on the PGA Tour.

Last four events: 5-5-3-20
Masters form: 7-2
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 36%

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Matt Fitzpatrick - Englishman is form horse

Fitzpatrick has been good but not great at Augusta. He was seventh in the Danny Willett Masters of 2016 but that remains his best finish despite making every cut since. His only other top 10 was 10th in 2023. 

But the Englishman is generating plenty of chatter this time as he comes in as one of the form players in world golf after following a near-miss second place at The Players Championship with a superb win in the Valspar Championship.

Fitzpatrick's flat ball flight is a potential problem but his SG: Approach numbers are vastly improved and even if perhaps a few will prove too good on this particular course, it's not hard to see him making the top 10 or even top five. 

Last four events: 1-2-41-24
Masters form: 40-22-10-14-34-46-21-38-32-7-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 16%, Top 10: 26%

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Cameron Young - Players champion has Majors pedigree

Young is very much in the Schauffele camp as a player who made his mark on the Majors early. The American finished second on his Open Championship debut when runner-up at St Andrews in 2022 and earlier that year he posted third in his first start at the PGA Championship.

At Augusta he's posted seventh (2023) and ninth (2024) in two of the last three and also logged fourth in last year's US Open. Finishing joint-top points scorer for the USA on his Ryder Cup debut back in September added to the belief that he's a man for the big time.

Young proved that again in style by closing out victory in gutsy style at last month's Players Championship. Also third at Bay Hill and seventh at Riviera prior to that, he looks a force at this level for years to come.

Last four events: 1-3-7-55
Masters form: MC-9-7-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 18%, Top 10: 34%

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Tommy Fleetwood - first Masters as PGA Tour winner

It's taken a long time but Fleetwood will finally line up in a Major having a win on American soil under his belt. It was a huge one too: The Tour Championship.

Fleetwood could do no wrong at the time and soon after he emerged as top points scorer in Europe's Ryder Cup victory at Bethpage. While not quite hitting those heights so far this year, he's close to a really big week after four top 10s in his last five starts.

At Augusta, he only has a single top 10 (third two years ago) but he's been in the top 10 after 54 holes in four of the last eight. Widening the lens, he has four top fives in the last 15 Majors.

Last four events: 10-8-49-7
Masters form: 21-3-33-14-46-19-36-17-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 40%

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Hideki Matsuyama - 2021 champ has dipped in Majors

The Japanese star set the tone here by finishing as Low Amateur on debut in 2011 and, of course, he joined the Green Jacket club with a superb win in 2021.

He's only been outside the top 21 twice in the last 11 Masters but, a negative spin with these markets in mind, Matsuyama has only managed one top 10 in his last nine visits.

A bigger concern is that he's posted just one top 10 in the last 13 Majors. Contrast that to his run between 2013 and 2017 when he sprinkled seven top 10s in 19 Majors, four of those top fives. 

Last four events: 21-27-41-28
Masters form: 21-38-16-14-1-13-32-19-11-7-5-MC-54-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 12%, Top 10: 24%

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Summary

There's a certain amount of negativity around Ludvig Aberg in recent weeks due to his inability to close tournaments out.

True, it's frustrating if you've backed the Swede 'win only' but for Top 5 and Top 10 punters he's very much your friend after a third and two top fives in this last three events.

Add in the fact that he's held the final-round lead at some point during his only two Masters starts, finishing second and seventh, and Aberg is a strong bet at 3.185/40 to make the Top 10. 

Others at the front of the betting are tempting but the most realiable man in the Top 5 market could be Xander Schauffele.

I came very close to putting him up in my outright preview but this is a good chance to profit from a player who looks to have a rock-solid chance of being in contention.

Schauffele has managed top fives in each of his last two PGA Tour starts while at Augusta he has a second, a third and top 10s in each of the last three.

So good is he at Majors that Schauffele is one of the few here that could finish top five and still claim he only had his B game.

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Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here