US Masters 2025 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Rahm ready to thrive

• The 2023 winner Jon Rahm backed for Top 5 Finish

• Xander Schauffele looks value for a Top 10 Finish

• Free bets for birdies in our Birdie Bonus offer. T&Cs apply. Click here for more

• Pick your places on each-way bets at the Masters

• Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here

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Scottie Scheffler - double winner must surely contend

World No.1 Scheffler, the 2022 and 2024 Masters champion, has a couple of negatives against him in terms of winning the green jacket again.

Surprisingly, he hasn't won this year after his start to 2025 was delayed by a Christmas cooking incident and minor hand surgery. And, secondly, only Jack Nicklaus has ever won three Masters in the space of four years. 

But if you, justifiably, can't bring yourself to back him to win here again, the Top 5 2.466/4 or Top 10 1.758/11 markets are options for a man who was runner-up in Houston last time and finished 10th when defending in 2023. Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in a crazy 72% of his last 50 events as noted below.

Last four events: 2-20-11-3
Masters form: 1-10-1-18-19
Last 50 starts - Win: 18%, Top 5: 56%, Top 10: 72%

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Rory McIlroy - the green jacket search goes on

Win backers have been driven crazy by McIlroy at the Masters. He blew a four-shot 54-hole lead in 2011 and since then has been rather tormented in his search to win a first green jacket.

In the Top 5 market he's landed that twice in the last five years while he has seven top 10s in 16 Masters starts. That's kind of what you'd expect. This time he's 2.962/1 for Top 5 and 1.834/5 for Top 10.

This year, for the first time, he heads to Augusta National with two PGA Tour successes under his belt already this season after superb wins at Pebble Beach and Sawgrass. The FedEx Cup leader was also fifth in Houston last time out and ranks 1st for SG: Tee To Green in 2025 and 10th for SG: Putting.

Last four events: 5-1-15-17
Masters form: 22-MC-2-MC-5-21-5-7-10-4-8-25-40-15-MC-20
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 56%

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Jon Rahm - 2023 winner has fewer distractions this time

Rahm, like so many before him, struggled when trying to win back-to-back Masters last year. It was hardly a surprise given that only two defending champions since 2007 have managed a top 10, never mind a win.

As well as dealing with the extra pressures of the Champions Dinner and extra media commitments, he was also answering questions about joining LIV. For a while in last year's majors he looked a lost soul but seventh in the Open Championship sparked him again.

With a solid (if winless) season on LIV so far, Rahm looks in good position to add to his tally of big finishes at Augusta. In the last seven years he's had a win, two other top fives and a further two top 10s. This time he's 4.77/2 for a Top 5 and 2.568/5 for Top 10. 

Last four events: 9-5-6-6
Masters form: 45-1-27-5-7-9-4-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 46%, Top 10: 72%

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Collin Morikawa - Californian is a course horse

With two top fives and another top 10 in the last three Masters, Morikawa is showing that we can now pencil him in as a regular challenger for the green jacket.

Already a double major winner, the surprise in recent seasons is that he's had trouble getting over the line. The ZOZO Championship in Japan was his last victory in October 2023 while you have to go back to 2021 to find him last winning on American soil.

But in terms of these markets, he's racked up nine top 10s in his 20 majors and seven of those were top fives, including the wins. Second at Bay Hill and 10th at Sawgrass suggest he's ready to add to that tally. 

Last four events: 10-2-17-17
Masters form: 3-10-5-18-44
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 36%

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Bryson DeChambeau - US Open champ offers mixed take

DeChambeau's sixth place last year suggests he's one for the shortlist again but that was actually his first top 20 at Augusta despite him once telling us that par there for him was 67 given that he could make mincemeat of the par 5s.

He's managed several fast starts but his chipping around Augusta's greens remains suspect and perhaps there are better majors to play him in - the US Open being the obvious one given that he's won that twice in the last five years.

Overall he appears a conundrum. It would be no surprise to see him putting in a big challenge but, equally, his past record suggests it's fair to expect him to finish outside the top 10 for the eighth time in nine visits.

Last four events: 5-10-20-18
Masters form: 6-MC-MC-46-34-29-38-21
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 46%

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Ludvig Aberg - following up stunning debut will be tough

I actually backed Aberg for a Top 10 at 4.216/5 in this market last year - a leap of faith given that it was his Masters debut and, in fact, first start in any major. He's 3.39/4 this time.

He came up trumps - and then some - on that first start by putting in a serious challenge and eventually finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler.

The Swede went into that 2024 Masters having not finished outside the top 30 in seven PGA Tour starts, the highlight a second place at Pebble Beach. Aberg has been far more patchy this time. He was a brilliant winner of the Genesis Invitational but 22nd is his best finish in six starts around that and he's missed his last two cuts.

Last four events: MC-MC-22-1
Masters form: 2
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 34%

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Xander Schauffele - 2024 majors hero could be ready to strike

After shaking off his nearly but not quite tag with not one but two wins in the majors last year, Schauffele could easily have been seen as the biggest threat to Scheffler and McIlroy this time.

But he'll head into this year's Masters without even a top 10 to his name this season. Some context is required though: Schauffele has only played four times due to injury and on his most recent start he ranked 1st for SG: Approach when 12th at the Valspar.

If that impressive iron play in Florida was a warning sign that he's ready to thrive again, he has the Augusta record to do so with four top 10s in his last six Masters. Two of those are top fives.

Last four events: 12-72-40-30
Masters form: 8-10-MC-3-17-2-50
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 52%

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Justin Thomas - JT has fluctuating Augusta form

Thomas has always looked a great fit for Augusta but his Masters results are overall underwhelming. His only top five came in the November 2020 edition when the course played much softer while his only other top 10 is eighth in 2022. 

He admits he's put too much pressure on himself to do well but missed cuts in the last two years only suggests that problem is getting worse not better.

But there are certainly plenty of positives to take on his form this season. JT was runner-up in the Valspar last time when seemingly in prime position to win on the back nine while three second places, a sixth and a ninth in his last nine PGA Tour starts is a very strong body of work.

Last four events: 2-33-36-9
Masters form: MC-MC-8-21-4-12-17-22-39
Last 50 starts - Win: 0%, Top 5: 18%, Top 10: 32%

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Hideki Matsuyama - Former champ has gone off the boil

The Japanese star can comfortably be added to the list of Augusta specialists having set the tone by finishing as Low Amateur on debut in 2011. The winner in 2021 has been outside the top 16 just once in the last five years.

But a negative spin, with these markets in mind, is that he's only managed one top 10 in his last eight visits. That's a harsh assessment though, as he's been a shot or two away in most of those.

Matsuyama began 2025 in stunning fashion by shooting 35-under to win The Sentry, his 11th PGA Tour title and third in less than 12 months. But since then his form has taken a real dip and he heads to his 14th Masters on the back of missed cuts at The Players Championship and Texas Open. 

Last four events: MC-MC-22-13
Masters form: 38-16-14-1-13-32-19-11-7-5-MC-54-27
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 12%, Top 10: 22%

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Joaquin Niemann - Chilean has plenty to prove

Once more, Niemann is regarded as a good bet by many this week and yet there's an obvious hole in his chances. The Chilean has never had a top 10 in five starts at Augusta National; in fact he's never had one in 22 starts in the majors.

A brighter picture can be painted. He's made the cut in 14 of his last 16 majors and he was just two shots shy of the top 10 in the 2023 Masters and four off in 2024. His PGA Tour win at Riviera in 2022 also bodes well given how results there correlate so strongly with Augusta National's.

Niemann gets so many eyes on him in majors due to his continued excellence on LIV. He's won two of his last four events (Adelaide and Singapore) and the Data Golf world rankings which take into account LIV results rank him the 11th best player in the world.

Last four events: 33-1-12-1
Masters form: 22-16-35-40
Last 50 starts - Win: 12%, Top 5: 34%, Top 10: 56%

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Summary

After a stuttering title defence last year, Rahm can forget about having to be the perfect host at the Champions Dinner and resume normal service out on the course.

The Spaniard has the ideal game for Augusta as shown by his four-shot win in 2023 and four straight top 10s from 2018 to 2021.

After keeping his game ticking over on LIV, I expect Rahm to thrive on his return to the big stage and will back him for a Top 5 at 4.77/2.

Schauffle is an interesting one this week given that he hasn't got going yet in 2025.

But fuelling a 12th last time out with brilliant Approach figures suggests he could be a little ahead of the handicapper and 3.412/5 for a Top 10 looks value.

Schauffele has had four of those in his last six Masters and, over his career, the American has a 50% strike rate: 15 top 10s in 30 majors.

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Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here

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