US Masters 2023: 10-year trends point to...

Welcome to this year's Masters 10-year trends piece!

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I tinkered with the methodology last year in a bid to give this, let's say, cult annual tradition a new and improved feel.

Instead of striking a line through players who fell at a particular statistical hurdle, I scrapped the process of elimination approach and went for a fresh and exciting (okay, exciting is stretching it a bit) points system.

I also brought some current stats and Strokes Gained numbers to the table in a bid to reward those excelling in the skills best suited to Augusta National.

The result? Well, pretty good really. The 2022, erm, 10-year trends supercomputer ™ spat out Rory McIlroy, who finished runner-up! At the time of writing, the Northern Irishman had been available at 20.019/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Close but no cigar so after some more late-night refining behind the scenes as the test tube bubbled and the white lab coat got more candle wax down it, these are the new set of 10 categories for 2023.

Age, World Ranking, Masters Appearances, Best Masters finish, Low Masters Round, Defending Champion, Recent Form, Recent Major Form, Strokes Gained: Around The Green and Strokes Gained: Approach.

Right, time to tee off...

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Age - 20 = plenty

Let's use the opening category to remind ourselves of the new points scoring system brought in last year. Under the previous rules, because nine of the last 10 winners were in their 20s or 30s, I'd have eliminated anyone 40 or above.

But now, it's not quite so cutthroat. Instead, points are awarded based on how often each age group won across those 10 editions. So as five 20-somethings won, anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 5pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 5pts
In their 30: 4pts
In their 40s: 1pt

Just to clarify, there were four winners in their 30s in the last 10 years so that category of player this year is given 4pts. That would apply to 33-year-old Rory McIlroy for example. Previously, 42-year-old Justin Rose would have been eliminated at this stage. Instead, he now gets a single point (courtesy of Tiger, then 43, in 2019) and fights on.

The logic? Perhaps there's a general assumption that maturer golfers would fare better on a course where you learn something new every year. Nick Faldo won his first green jacket 10 years after his Masters debut while Phil Mickelson needed 12 cracks at it before winning.

But over the last decade, more players have been conquering Augusta while still in their 20s.

World Ranking - the higher the better

All of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world's top 30 but, being more specific, eight of those sat in the top 20. Using frequency to guide us again, that gives a fairly straightforward points allocation.

Ranked 1-20 = 8pts
Ranked 21-30 = 2pts

Appearances - Augusta experience valuable

Needing years and years to crack the code isn't absolutely essential but experience is still worth its weight in gold at Augusta National and eight of the last 10 winners had played in at least three Masters. Famously, there hasn't been a first-time champion since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but instead of eliminating the newbies (who this year include Taylor Moore and Adrian Meronk), they get zero points due to no debutant winner in the last 10 years.

In our study period of 2013 to 2022, Jordan Spieth (2015) and Danny Willett (2016) both won on the back of just a single appearance so it's possible although rare to win so soon. Hence the following points allocation.

Played in 3 or more Masters = 8pts
Played in 1 or 2 Masters = 2pts
Played in 0 Masters = 0pts

Best Masters finish - Top five finish desirable

A previous strong finish at Augusta counts for plenty when trying to locate the winner. Indeed, seven of the last 10 champions had posted a previous top five. Two others had managed a top 25 and one other (Willett) had a best of 38th. Hopefully, the points allocation system is now becoming familiar.

Previous Top 5 = 7pts
Previous best of 6th-25th = 2pts
Previous best of 26th-40th = 1pt

Lowest Augusta round - Hunting for a 67 or lower

In an event where course form counts for plenty, I'm happy to throw in another stat which relates to performance at Augusta. This one is a player's previous best round there.

Any player who has shot a 5-under lap of Augusta National will have a belief that they can score on this course. Indeed, six of the last 10 winners had a previous 67 or better on the par 72 under their belts. Therefore...

Shot a 67 or lower = 6pts
Shot a 68, 69 or 70 = 3pts
Shot a 71 = 1pt

Justin Thomas, for example, carded an opening 66 in 2020 and a second-round 67 in 2022 so gets six points. Matsuyama's low lap before his win in 2021 was a 66.

Defending Champion - Reigning champs are rare

Winning back-to-back green jackets is incredibly hard. Only the greats - Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods - have managed it. Woods was the last in 2002 which means there hasn't been a successful defence in the last 10 years.

Is it all the attention (organising the Champions Dinner, extra media duties etc) that makes it so hard? Whatever, the stat is ingrained and, almost incredibly, only one defending champion since 2007 has managed a top 10, never mind a win, the following year. Overall, the trend is bad news for Scottie Scheffler.

Defending champion = 0pts
Not the defending champion = 10pts

Recent Form - Good current play essential

It's almost essential to take on Augusta National in good form although it doesn't need to be a victory. A look at the last 10 winners shows that all 10 had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their two starts before arriving at Augusta National.

But we can get even more specific as seven of the last 10 winners had a top five in a strokeplay event in the same month of the US Masters or the previous month. That's usually March/April although in the delayed 2020 edition it was October/November.

Top 5 finish in a strokeplay event in same/previous month = 7pts
Best of 6th-30th in a strokeplay event in March/April = 3pts

Recent major form - No worse than sixth

Those who do end up winning the green jacket don't come out of thin air; often they've telegraphed their victory with a strong performance in a relatively recent major.

The stats are surprisingly strong here as nine of the last 10 winners had posted a top six in a major in one of the previous two seasons. Even someone we think of as a slightly freakish winner, Danny Willett, had finished tied 6th at the 2015 Open just two majors before his 2016 Masters triumph.

The odd one out was Matsuyama whose best was 13th.

Top 6 in a Major in 2021 or 2022 = 9pts
7th-15th in a Major in 2021 or 2022 = 1pt

Key Stat 1 - Strokes Gained: Around The Green

The Strokes Gained categories of Off The Tee, Approach, Around The Green, Tee To Green and Putting weren't available until last year. But using datagolf stats from 2021 and 2022, the category with the biggest difference to a regular event is the usually neglected Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

That doesn't come as a surprise given that so many Masters winners are described as having sharp short games or a bit of magic in their wrists.

In 2021, seven of the top 11 finishers ranked in the top 10 for SG: Around The Green while last year eight of the top 11 were in the top 12 for ATG. Those figures are way up on the standard PGA Tour event.

If using Scrambling as a measure for assessing touch around the greens, the last 10 Masters winners have had the following Scrambling rank: 9, 8, 5, 47, 16, 6, 1, 10, 5, 3. In summary, eight of the last 10 were in the top 10.

In short, chipping from below (those shots that repel down slopes) or around the slick Augusta greens is a massive key and as SG: Around The Green (anything 90 feet or in) is a better measure than Scrambling, I'll use that stat.

To turn it into points, I'm going to divide this season's Around The Green stats into blocks of 25 and award points accordingly to reflect that the chipping wizards have an advantage.

Ranked 1-25 = 8pts
Ranked 26-50 = 7pts
Ranked 51-75 = 6pts
Ranked 76-100 = 5pts
Ranked 101-125 = 4pts
Ranked 126-150 = 3pts
Ranked 151-175 = 2pts
Ranked 176 or lower = 1pt

Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler are both in the top 25 for SG: Around The Green this season so both get the full 8pts, as does Jon Rahm, who was way down at 168th in this category ahead of the 2022 Masters. Viktor Hovland is only 164th so he scores just 2pts.

Key Stat 2 - Strokes Gained: Approach

As with SG: Around The Green, we only have two years of SG: Approach numbers but again it makes sense to use the modern method.

Augusta National is often referred to as a 'second shot' course and that's apparent when looking at the Greens In Regulation stats of the winners which are a far better guide to success than driving or putting.

Scheffler was ranked 5th for G.I.R when winning last year and Steve Rawlings worked out in his 2022 preview that the average G.I.R. ranking of the previous 15 Augusta winners was just 6.26.

It's an assumption - but a valid one hopefully - that had Strokes Gained stats been available since 2013, the last 10 winners would also have ranked highly in Approach.

So, once more, to turn that into points I'm going to divide this season's Strokes Gained: Approach stats into blocks of 25 and award points accordingly. This rewards the players whose irons are most dialled in.

Ranked 1-25 = 8pts
Ranked 26-50 = 7pts
Ranked 51-75 = 6pts
Ranked 76-100 = 5pts
Ranked 101-125 = 4pts
Ranked 126-150 = 3pts
Ranked 151-175 = 2pts
Ranked 176 or lower = 1pt

Collin Morikawa, as you'd expect, scores the maximum 8pts due to his ranking of 2nd in SG: Approach (I'll leave you to guess/research who is top).

The Top Points Scorers

And now the exciting bit!!

The scores are in and, drumroll, these are the leading scorers in the rankings:

75 Jordan Spieth
74 Rory McIlroy
71 Xander Schauffele
70 Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa
69 Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im
66 Scottie Scheffler
65 Hideki Matsuyama

It's Spieth!!

The 2015 Masters champion scores 75 out of a possible 76 and just pips Rory McIlroy.

Spieth ticks every statistical box, only falling short of the maximum total due to being 41st in SG: Approach, scoring 7pts in that category instead of the full 8 given for being ranked 1-25.

Aside from that, he's 29, World No.16, has a win (2015), two seconds (2014 and 2016) and two thirds (2018 and 2021) at Augusta with a low round of 64 (twice) from his nine appearances, was third at Bay Hill on his last strokeplay start and is 16th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

Spieth can be backed at chunky odds of 20.019/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

With none of the leading points scorers playing in Texas this week, the current tallies look pretty much set in stone.

A quick note on the LIV golfers, who can't be ranked for Around The Green or Approach as they're not listed following the loss of PGA Tour membership. And, also, how do we assess their form?

On last year's rankings, Smith would be right up there had he put in a big finish in an elite event. But he hasn't.

So Spieth it is!

Or, given how tight it is at the top, maybe a Spieth-McIlroy playoff. What a spectactle that would be!