Travelers Championship: Defending champ value again at 10/3

• Hot putting the key to River Highlands success

• Will the weekend off at Oakmont prove to be a plus

• Trading drama expected on Sunday 

• Read my US Open De-Brief here

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Tournament History

Founded as the Insurance City Open, and formerly known as the Greater Hartford Open, the Travelers Championship has been in existence since 1952.

The tournament was moved to August to accommodate the Olympics in 2016 and in 2020 it followed the RBC Heritage after the disruption to the schedule caused by the pandemic, but in every other year since 2007 it's been played in the week following the US Open.

This event has seen a number of records set lately. It's now 14 years since Patrick Cantlay set the course record with a ten-under-par 60, which is also the lowest round shot by an amateur in a PGA Tour event, in 2014 Kevin Streelman became the first player to birdie the last seven holes to win a PGA Tour event, and Jim Furyk shot the PGA Tour's first ever 58 here in 2016.

The Travers Championship is the final Signature Event of the year so it's a reduced field event with no cut.

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Venue

TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Connecticut.

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Course Details

Par 70, 6,835 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 67.63

Originally designed by Robert J. Ross and Maurice Kearney in 1928, TPC River Highlands was reworked by Pete Dye in 1982 and again by Bobby Weed in 1989. It's not a particularly strong test, low scores are a common occurrence, and it's averaged below par in each of the last seven years.

As detailed above, we've seen some low scores here over the years and Cameron Young added another 12 months ago, shooting an 11-under-par 59 in round three.

The fairways are framed by bluegrass rough that was as high as four inches in places last year and the smaller than average Poa Annua greens, which were set to 12 on the Stimpmeter 12 months ago, are fairly easy to hit. Scoring is always in the double-digits under-par.

Holes 15, 16 and 17, are nicknamed the 'Golden Triangle' and they wind around a lake, creating a dramatic backdrop for what's often a theatrical finish. At less than 300 yards, the short par four 15^th is drivable but it's not a straightforward test and last year it only averaged 3.7. The green has tricky roll-offs and water is in play for anyone straying left. The par three 16^th is played back over the water and is tricky (hardest on the course last year, averaging 3.04) and the par four 17^th hole has water to the right off the tee and approach shots to the green are played back over the lake.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Scottie Scheffler -22 5.49/2 (playoff)
2023 - Keegan Bradley -23 110.0109/1
2022 - Xander Schauffele -19 22.021/1
2021 - Harris English -13 50.049/1 (playoff)
2020 - Dustin Johnson -19 30.029/1
2019 - Chez Reavie -17 80.079/1
2018 - Bubba Watson -17 32.031/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 11.010/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Travelers?

I've gone back 12 years to work out the average rankings for the last 12 winners in all the traditional stats and we've also got nine years' worth of Strokes Gained data.

Average Rankings - Last 12 Winners

Driving Distance - 30.7
Driving Accuracy - 28.9
Greens In Regulation - 17.8
Scrambling - 21.4
Putting Average - 8.5

Average SG Rankings - Last nine Winners

Off the Tee - 21.89
Approach - 8.78
Around the Green - 23
Tee to Green - 3.89
Putting - 13.89

Approach play was the key last year with the first four home ranking inside the top-five for Greens In Regulation and the top-six for SG: Tee to Green but as demonstrated by Furyk nine years ago and by Young last year, when the two shot rounds of 58 and 59 respectively, this is a track that offers up very low scoring, and most winners have a great week with the flatstick.

The 2023 winner, Keegan Bradley, ranked first for Strokes Gained Putting and although the 2021 winner, Harris English, only ranked 18^th for SGP, the man he beat in the playoff, Kramer Hickock, ranked second and the first four in the SGP rankings all finished inside the top-five and ties.

The 2018 and 2019 winners, Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson only ranked 31^st and 22^nd respectively for SGP so they bump the average ranking up, but the event is very often just a putting competition.

The myriad of putting stats on the PGA Tour website may help but knowing quite who is going to have a good four days with the flatstick on any particular week is never easy.

Scheffler ranked third for Par 4 Scoring 12 months ago, but Bradley ranked first two years ago and the seven winners between 2014 and 2020 all played the par fours better than anyone else, so the PGA Tour's Par 4 Performance stats should be worth a look.

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Will a good week in Oakmont be a pointer?

Given this event traditionally follows the US Open, I've looked back at the last 15 years to see how the winners of this event had fared the week before, or even if they'd played in the US Open.

The 2020 edition of Travelers Championship was the first tournament on the PGA Tour that wasn't cancelled or rescheduled following the three-month break due to the pandemic, so it didn't follow the US Open, it followed the second event back after the shutdown, the RBC Heritage, where the winner here, Dustin Johnson, had finished 17^th.

And the Travelers followed the US PGA Championship in 2016, where the winner here, Russell Knox, had finished 22^nd but in every other year it followed the US Open so here's how the last 15 winners had finished in the US Open, or if they didn't play in the US Open (DNP), how they're figured in the previous start. 

2010 - Bubba Watson - DNP US Open - 33^rd Memorial Tournament
2011 - Freddie Jacobson - 14^th US Open
2012 - Marc Leishman - DNP US Open - 58^th Memorial Tournament
2013 - Ken Duke - DNP US Open - MC FedEx St Jude Classic
2014 - Kevin Streelman - MC US Open
2015 - Bubba Watson - MC US Open
2016 - Russell Knox - 22^nd USPGA Championship
2017 - Jordan Spieth - 35^th US Open
2018 - Bubba Watson - MC US Open
2019 - Chez Reavie - 3^rd US Open
2020 - Dustin Johnson - 17^th RBC Heritage
2021 - Harris English - 3^rd US Open
2022 - Xander Schauffele - 14^th US Open
2023 - Keegan Bradley - MC US Open
2024 - Scottie Scheffler - 41^st US Open

It's a bit of a mixed bag but last year's winner, Scheffler, bounced back here to win his sixth title in 10 starts after a perplexing performance at Pinehurst and the 2023 winner, Bradley, is one of four to miss the cut in the US Open the week before they won here.

This week's test is very different to the one faced at Oakmont and anyone in-contention last week must surely be mentally drained so I'd lean towards those that didn't play last weekend but a high finisher last week might be worth chancing if they're a decent price.

Harris English and the 2019 winner, Chez Reavie, both finished third at the US Open before winning here at a juicy price.

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Is There an Angle In?

It's very old form now but the defunct WGC Champions event at Sheshan is a tournament that's correlated excellently with this one over the years.

Bradley led after round one there on debut back in 2011, he finished 11^th in 2013 and sixth in 2018 and Xander Schauffele, Russell Knox, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson have all won at both venues.

And Justin Rose should have won at both. The 2017 Sheshan winner led this event by three strokes with a round to go in 2010, before a sorry 75 on Sunday saw him finish ninth.

The Sheshan event hasn't been played since 2019 but given how well veterans can fair here (see below) it's an event that's still worth of consideration.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

This used to be a really good event for longshots, but the fields have been getting stronger of late and the profile of the winners has changed as a result.

The favourite won 12 months ago, six of the last eight winners have been major champions, and the 2023 winner, Bradley, was the first triple-figure priced winner in nine years - although 1000.0999/1 chance, Kramer Hickock, came very close four years ago. He was matched at a low of 1.11/10 in the playoff.

Historically, outsiders, PGA Tour maidens, and old-timers all had a good record at TPC River Highlands. Despite his strong showing at Pebble Beach the week before, Chez Reavie was an 80.079/1 chance six years ago, Russell Knox went off at around 60.059/1 in 2016 and there were a number of really big-priced winners before then.

Kevin Streelman was a 220.0219/1 shot before the get-go 11 years ago and 12 months earlier, 45-year-old PGA Tour rookie, Ken Duke, won having been matched at 680.0679/1 before the off!

Most of the winners over the last decade have been prolific types but Reavie in 2019, like the 2014 winner, Streelman, and the 2016 winner, Russell Knox, had won only once before, and six of the eight winners before Streelman were all winning on the PGA Tour for the very first time.

A decade after he'd won the title for a second time, 45-year-old, Stewart Cink, finished tied for second in 2018 and Jerry Kelly finished runner-up at the age of 49 nine years ago. At 37, Bradley was no spring chicken when he won two years ago and five of the 20 Travelers winners before him were over 40.

Had KJ Choi, who traded at just 1.728/11 in 2014, held on, that would have read six from 20, and a number of other vets have come close fairly recently.

At the age of 42, Bubba was matched at a low of 1.528/15 before a poor finish three years ago and when he won here for the first time he beat veterans Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin in a playoff so with a small twist of fate the aged pros could have won seven, eight or even nine of the last 22 renewals.

Schauffele was only 28 when he claimed the title three years ago and Scheffler turned 28 during the event 12 months ago but the four winners before Schauffele were all in their 30s.

English was 31 when he won in 2021, DJ and Reavie were both 36 and Bubba was 39 when he won this for a third time in 2018.

Historically, this short course has given the older guys a chance but, sadly, the field profiles have changed considerably over the last couple of years, now it's a Signature Event.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Scottie Scheffler - tied second, trailing by one 2.8415/8
2023 - Keegan Bradley - led by one 1.9420/21
2022 - Xander Schauffele - led by one 2.1211/10
2021 - Harris English - tied sixth, trailing by two 15.014/1
2020 - Dustin Johnson - solo second, trailing by two 3.185/40
2019 - Chez Reavie led by six strokes 1.282/7
2018 - Bubba Watson - tied sixth, trailing by six 36.035/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth led by a stroke 1.768/11

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In-Play Tactics

Although four of the last eight winners were leading after 54 holes, being in front here isn't always a plus.

Having led by five at halfway and by a stroke through 54-holes, Schauffele converted three years ago thanks mainly to a poor finish by Sahith Theegala. The 10/111.00 pre-event favourite, Jordan Spieth, who'd led by a stroke in 2017, beat Daniel Berger in a playoff thanks to a remarkable bunker shot on the 18^th and Reavie successfully converted a six-stroke lead three years later but the third-round leader or co-leader has gone on to win only seven times in the last 21 years and Bradley, Schauffele, Spieth and Reavie are the only four of 17 54-hole leaders or co-leaders to go on to win in the last 12 years. 

We nearly always see plenty of drama here and most years we witness at least two or three players trading at long odds-on. Theegala was matched at a low of just 1.341/3 three years ago and there was even more drama in 2021. Bubba was matched at 1.528/15 and Hickock 1.51/2 before English went on to win - and he was matched at 1.011/100 in regulation play before Hickock birdied the last to take it into extra time! 

It's hard to get the job done here and it's a trader's paradise most years. 

Paul Casey led by four with a round to go seven years ago and he was matched at a low of 1.182/11 in-running before going on to get beat by three. Knox won from three adrift after the clear odds-on leader, Daniel Berger, shot a disappointing 74 to finish tied fifth nine years ago but many a winner has come from even further back. 

Marc Leishman trailed by six 13 years ago, as did Bubba in 2010, and again seven years ago, and the two veterans Watson beat in the playoff 15 years ago (Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin) came from six and eight shots back respectively!

When Brad Faxon won in 2005, he was trailing by 12 at halfway and by seven after three rounds. Phil Mickelson won from five back with a round to go in 2002 and Notah Begay and Woody Austin, like Knox, have both won the event this century from three off the pace. Duke sat in a tie for 6th and was trailing by two 12 years ago and Streelman was four back and trading at 55.054/1 in 2014. 

We nearly always get a dramatic tight finish and nine of the last 21 renewals have gone to extra time. And finally, don't give up if your picks start slowly. Bubba sat tied for 77^th and seven off the lead seven years ago and DJ came from even further back five years ago. He sat tied for 79^th and nine adrift after round one!

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Defending champ value again at 10/34.33

Since finishing 20^th when attempting to win the Players Championship for a third time back in March, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, has finished no worse than eighth in eight starts on the PGA Tour and he's won three of the last five events he's played in.

A slow start at Oakmont left him too much to do last week but back-to-back 70s over the weekend saw him end the week in a tie for seventh and he's impossible to ignore at over 3/14.00 as he attempts to defend yet another title here.

Following his impressive victory at the Memorial Tournament three weeks ago, Scheffler has now won six different events twice - the US Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, the Phoenix Open, the Hero World Challenge and the Memorial - and he's successfully defended the title at the last four named.

Last week was undoubtedly a real grind and there's obviously a chance that he's fatigued, both physically and mentally, but having backed him when he won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May and the Memorial Tournament three weeks ago at 3/14.00, I'm more than happy to go in again here at a slightly bigger price.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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