CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scheffler looks set to get off the mark at 3/1

• Hot putting required in Texas

• Great event for longshots

• Overseas players have a strong record

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Tournament History

Originally known as the Dallas Open and first played in 1944, the inaugural CJ Cup Byron Nelson Championship was won by the man that the event is now named after.

As a measure of how big a tournament this once was, Sam Snead and Ben Hogan won the next two editions and the likes of Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Fred Couples and Payne Stewart all took the title in the 1970s and 80s. A three year spell in the mid-90s saw Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods victorious and since the turn of the century, major winners Vijay Singh, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Jason Dufner and Sergio Garcia have all also won but the tournament started to lose a bit of its lustre when it moved to TPC Four Seasons - a venue unpopular with many of the pros.

The tournament switched to Trinity Forest in 2018 but after just two editions there and a year off due to the pandemic, the tournament moved again four years ago, this time to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, 25 miles north of Dallas.

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Venue

TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,414yards
Stroke average in 2024 - 68.5 

Designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch has minimal rough, generous zoysiagrass fairways and bentgrass greens that have previously been set at 11.5 on the stimpmeter. That's not overly fast but we're in Texas so they can't be set too speedy in case the wind gets up.

Water is a constant feature with the Rowlett Creek criss-crossing the course numerous times.

In addition to the last four editions of this event, TPC Craig Ranch was also used a couple of times on the Korn Ferry Tour for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in both 2008 and 2012.

The par five 12^th was turned into a par four in 2023 and that was the hardest hole on the course last year (averaged 4.18), so the overall par is now 71, but Craig Ranch is still a very easy track, and we might just see a round in the 50s this week.

Troy Merritt's nine-under-par 62 in round two was the lowest round last year but Sebastian Munoz opened the event with a 12-under-par 60 in 2022 and Seung-Yul Noh matched his feat two years ago.

There were two rounds of 61 over weekend three years ago by James Hahn in round three and Xander Schauffele in round four and Jason Day won the event for a second time two years ago when he signed for ten-under-par 62 in round four.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12;45 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Taylor Pendrith -23 130.0129/1
2023 - Jason Day -23 21.020/1
2022 - KH Lee -26 200.0199/1
2021 - KH Lee -25 250.0249/1
2019 - Sung-Hoon Kang -23 180.0179/1
2018 - Aaron Wise -23 80.079/1
2017 - Billy Horschel -12 (playoff) 200.0199/1
2016 - Sergio Garcia -15 (playoff) 30.029/1

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What Will it Take to Win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson?

Here are the leaderboards with traditional stats for the two editions of the Korn Ferry Championship held here, as well as the last three editions of this event.

2008 Korn Ferry Championship
1^st Matt Bettencourt -17  DD 8^th, DA 39^th, GIR 12^th, SC 17^th, PA 1^s
2^nd Jeff Klauk -16   DD 31^st, DA 4^th, GIR 19^th, SC 1st, PA 12^th
T3rd Colt Knost -15   DD 28^th, DA 2^nd, GIR 2^nd, SC 5^th, PA 27^th
T3rd Bryce Molder -15   DD 25^th, DA 11^th, GIR 3^rd, SC 10^th, PA 8^th
5^th Peter Tomasulo -14   DD 24^th, DA 20^th, GIR 6^th, SC 38^th, PA 17^th

2012 Korn Ferry Championship
1^st Justin Bolli -16  DD 43^rd, DA 48^th, GIR 4^th, SC 39^th, PA 6^th
2^nd James Hahn -14   DD 14^th, DA 15^th, GIR 11^th, SC 5^th, PA 1^st
T3rd Adam Hadwin -13   DD 24^th, DA 15^th, GIR 11^th, SC 1^st, PA 9^th
T3rd Morgan Hoffman -13   DD 7^th, DA 19^th, GIR 11^th, SC 11^th, PA 1^st
5^th Justin Hicks -12   DD 28^th, DA 2^nd, GIR 1^st, SC 47^th, PA 8^th

2021 Byron Nelson Championship
1^st KH Lee -25   DD 35^th, DA 41^st, GIR 5^th, SC 18^th, PA 2^nd
2^nd Sam Burns -22   DD 27^th, DA 49^th, GIR 5^th, SC 18^th, PA 27^th
T3rd Daniel Berger -21   DD 25^th, DA 9^th, GIR 4^th, SC 60^th, PA 7^th
T3rd Patton Kizzire -21   DD 17^th, DA 66^th, GIR 11^th, SC 10^th, PA 22^nd 
T3rd Charl Schwartzel -21   DD 7^th, DA 53^rd, GIR 8^th, SC 5^th, PA 46^th
T3rd Scott Stallings -21   DD 8^th, DA 49^th, GIR 17^th, SC 38^th, PA 1^st

2022 Byron Nelson Championship
1^st KH Lee -26   DD 49^th, DA 22^nd, GIR 18^th, SC 4^th, PA 33^rd
2^nd Jordan Spieth -25   DD 13^th, DA 33^rd, GIR 49^th, SC 13^th, PA 23^rd 
T3rd Hideki Matsuyama -24   DD 39^th, DA 22^nd, GIR 10^th, SC 11^th, PA 8^th
T3rd Sebastian Muoz -24   DD 34^th, DA 17^th, GIR 1^st, SC 65^th, PA 13^th

2023 Byron Nelson Championship
1^st Jason Day -23   DD 23^rd, DA 37^th, GIR 10^th, SC 10^th, PA 19^th
T2^nd Austin Eckroat -22   DD 7^th, DA 33^rd, GIR 24^th, SC 6^th, PA 1^st 
T2^nd Si Woo Kim -22   DD 69^th, DA 25^th, GIR 55^th, SC 1^st, PA 2^nd 
4^th C.T Pan -21   DD 31^st, DA 14^th, GIR 15^th, SC 8^th, PA 31^st

2024 Byron Nelson Championship
1^st Taylor Pendrith -23   DD 4^th, DA 28^th, GIR 26^th, SC 4^th, PA 1^st
2^nd Ben Kohles -22   DD 57^th, DA 5^th, GIR 22^nd, SC 7^th, PA 11^th 
3rd Alex Noren -21   DD 38^th, DA 15^th, GIR 26^th, SC 4^th, PA 17^th  

DD = Driving Distance
DA = Driving Accuracy
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

Although last year's winner, Taylor Pendrith, ranked as high as fourth for Driving Distance, we can ignore the driving metrics with neither length nor accuracy really proving key in any of the six events staged here.

Greens In Regulation has been an important stat over the years and from a Strokes Gained perspective, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach are the two stats to consider.

The top three and ties ranked second, first, fourth, fifth, 19^th and 26^th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green in 2021 and eight of the top 11 in 2022 ranked inside the top-10 for that stat.

The first four home three years ago and five of the top-six in 2021 ranked inside the top-seven for SG: Approach, the 2024 winner, Jason Day, ranked third for SG: Tee to Green and first for SG: Approach and although they only ranked 40^th, seventh and 24^th for SG: Approach, the first three home ranked fourth, eighth and sixth for SG: Tee to Green.

Accurate iron play is clearly important, but this is basically a low scoring birdie-fest and although Putting Average wasn't a key stat in 2022, the 2021 winner, K.H Lee, ranked second for PA and the player ranked first for PA finished either first or second in the other four events stage here.

Is There an Angle in?

Texans usually fare well in their home state and they have an outstanding record in the Valero Texas Open, but they don't have a great recent record in this particular event, although Ben Kohles really should have sealed the deal last year!

Matched at a low of just 1.111/9 when he birdied the 17^th to tie the lead, Kohles looked set to get into a playoff at least standing on the par five 18^th tee, but he made a complete mess of the easiest hole on the course to leave Canada's Taylor Pendrith holding the trophy.

Winning is hard.

Ben Kohles went on to make bogey on the 72nd hole to miss a potential playoff by one shot. He was the only player to bogey the 18th today. pic.twitter.com/JYx69sMP0U

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 5, 2024

Overseas players have a strong record in the tournament and only nine of the 24 winners this century have been American. And, if recent history is to be believed, it's the Australians and the Koreans that deserve most respect.

Aussies always tend to do well in windy Texas, and we've seen three recent winners from Down Under - Adam Scott, Steven Bowditch and Jason Day (twice).

K.H Lee, who won back-to-back in 2021 and 2022, was the third Korean to win in eight renewals when he took the title for a first time four years ago and Byeong Hun An finished tied for fourth 12 months ago.

The Koreans were also in-the-mix in 2023 - Sung-yul Noh led after round one and it was an Aussie-Korean one-two with Si Woo Kim finishing tied second behind Day.

Like the Aussie contingent, the Koreans clearly enjoy the usual windy conditions.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Although Day was a well-backed 20/121.00 shot two years ago, outsiders have a great record in the Byron Nelson.

Sergio Garcia is the only other recent winner that's been fairly-well fancied, going off at 30.029/1, and this has been a terrific tournament for longshots with nine of the last 11 winners all being matched at a triple-figure price before the off.
Aaron Wise only went off at 80.079/1 seven years ago but he was well-supported having been matched for plenty at between 100.099/1 and 120.0119/1 and the other eight winners all went off at huge odds.

I've listed the exchange prices for the last eight winners above, and it's perhaps worth noting that Lee was matched at as high of 500.0499/1 before the off four years ago.

Kohles, who really should have won last year, was a 600.0599/1 chance before the off and the three winners before Sergio Garcia in 2016 all went off at a big price.

The 2015 winner, Steven Bowditch was a 500.0499/1 chance, Brendan Todd went off at 170.0169/1 11 years ago and another Korean champ, Sang-Moon Bae, was a largely unconsidered 200.0199/1 chance 12 months earlier.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Taylor Pendrith - led by a stroke 3.02/1
2023 - Jason Day - tied fourth, trailing by two 8.615/2
2022 - KH Lee - tied sixth, trailing by four 50.049/1
2021 - KH Lee - solo second, trailing by one 6.411/2

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In-Play Tactics

Low scoring birdie-fests tend to suit frontrunners, so it makes sense to concentrate on the leaders from early on.

Although a 50.049/1 chance on Sunday morning three years ago, Lee was inside the top six places all week long, and so too were the last two winners, Pendrith and Day.

The front two were in the van throughout in 2021 (inside the front three from halfway) and it was a similar story here on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Matt Bettencourt was four off the lead after rounds one and two in 2008, but he was never outside the top ten places and he was tied for the lead with a round to go and four years later, Justin Bolli won from two back after three rounds, having led after round one and having been inside the front three places all week.

Although the track appears to suit frontrunners, it's clearly not an easy place to close.

We've seen ten men lead or tie for the lead with a round to go here and Pendrith and Bettencourt are the only two to convert.

Bettencourt, who had begun round four tied with Bryce Molder, survived a late scare, parring 17 and 18 to win by a stroke after double-bogeying the 16^th, and Pendrith had Kohles' dreadful finish to thank for his victory so it may be worth taking on the leader or leaders on Sunday morning.

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Scheffler looks set to get off the mark

Having won nine of the 21 tournaments he played in last year, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is yet to taste victory in 2025, but this is a golden opportunity for him to get off the mark and odds of around 3/14.00 look fair.

The start to his 2025 campaign was delayed a month after he cut his hand on Christmas Day but with form figures since then reading 9-25-3-11-20-2-4-8, he appears to be moving in the right direction.

His 20^th place finish at the Players Championship, where he was attempting to win the tournament for a remarkable third time in-a-row, was followed by yet another near miss in the Houston Open - an event in which he now has figures reading 28-32-2-9-2-2.

He put up a stout defence of his US Masters title too, eventually finishing fourth, only three strokes behind winner Rory McIlroy.

After a bright start to his defence of the RBC Heritage a fortnight ago, Scheffler drifted down the leaderboard (sat second after round one) to finish eighth. But after taking last week off, he'll return to this home state event refreshed and raring to go.

Scheffler won the WGC Match Play in Texas back in 2022 and his last 11 starts in the Lone Star State have seen him construct numbers that read 2-1-15-2-9-4-5-3-2-2-2. He's clearly very comfortable playing in front of his home fans.

His form figures at TPC Craig Ranch read a progressive 47-15-5 and, having skipped the event 12 months ago, he looks primed for an assault on the title in what is another fairly weak renewal.

This hasn't been a great event for favourite backers, but I was happy to have a small bet on Scheffler to cover stakes and a bit more besides.

Fellow Texan, Jordan Spieth, who has course form figures reading 9-2-MC and current form figures reading 9-59-28-12-14-18, is the man the market suggests Scheffler needs to beat. But I'm far from convinced.

Spieth will be inspired by his good friend, Justin Thomas, winning the RBC Heritage after a spell of three years without a win but he doesn't look a great price at 20/121.00 given he too hasn't won since 2022.

The Korean pair, Sungjae Im and Byeong Hun An, are next up but both make little appeal.

An has found his putting boots of late and in two visits here he's finished 14^th and fourth but he's far from prolific and he still hasn't won on the PGA Tour.

Im is even harder to fancy given he's playing here for the first time and that he missed the cut in his homeland last week.

Scheffler's close friend, Sam Burns, is a danger to the favourite this week.

The hot-putting 28-year-old clearly took to the venue four years ago when he finished second, after leading by two at halfway and by one with a round to go.

It's two years since Burns won the final staging of the WGC Match Play and nearly three since he won the Charles Schwab Challenge (both staged in Texas) so, although he hasn't won in a while, he clearly loves Texas.

He's been fairly well supported in early exchanges but with current form figures reading MC-MC-MC-46-13, I'm happy to swerve him. He missed the cut here 12 months after finishing second in 2021 and this is his first visit since.

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In-form Knapp worth chancing

Jake Knapp and his partner, Frankie Capan, went toe-to-toe with the eventual winners, Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak, at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in round four on Sunday before eventually finishing third.

They were matched at as low as 1.84/5 deep into the back-nine before disaster struck on the penultimate hole, when the nervy Capan put their tee-shot on the par three 17^th into the water.

Knapp did little wrong, and this looks like a perfect opportunity for him to gain instant redemption given he finished eighth here on debut 12 months ago, having led by a stroke at halfway.

He's been a bit in-and-out this year, missing the cut at the American Express in January, the Valspar Championship in March and the Texas Open at the start of April. In addition to last week's effort, however, he's recently finished sixth in the Cognizant Classic, where he shot 59 in round one, and an excellent 12^th in the Players. I was a little surprised to the Sportsbook open up at 60/161.00.

A low-scoring birdie-fest like this is right up his street, as he showed last year when winning the Mexico Open in 19-under-par.

I'll have a couple more longshot selections with the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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