The Punter's In-Play Blog: Baddeley the bet in Bermuda

• Odds-on Smith still in front in Portugal
• Leaders look vulnerable in blustery Bermuda
• Steve's big outsider in-the-mix again

08:40 - October 30, 2022

A bogey five at the tough 18th at Dom Pedro Victoria just took the shine off a sensational third round by the pre-event 19.018/1 second favourite, Jordan Smith, at the Portugal Masters yesterday but he's still managed to post his second nine-under-par 62 of the week, thanks in no small part to this eagle two at the par four 15th.

This @Jsmithgolf eagle on repeat #PortugalMasters pic.twitter.com/T86LoPP7Hh

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 29, 2022

Smith, who was matched at a low of just 1.271/4 before the dropped shot at 18 is clearly still the man to beat as he heads into today's final round with a two-stroke lead over pre-event 46.045/1 chance, Gavin Green. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Jordan Smith -22 1.558/15
Gavin Green -20 3.55/2
Sebastian Heisele -17 42.041/1
Eddie Pepperell -15 75.074/1
Hurly Long -15 85.084/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -15 95.094/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -15 110.0109/1
-14 and 300.0299/1 bar

It's highly likely that one of the front two go on to lift the trophy today but I wouldn't be in any sort of rush to back either of them.

We see some very strange things happen on the DP World Tour on a Sunday and someone winning from off the pace today wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Smith has just one title to his name so far, the 2017 European Open, and he didn't look like winning that one. Having led by two with a round to go, the tournament went to playoff and Alex Levy was matched for plenty at 1.011/100 before missing a tiddler for the title at the first extra hole.

With rounds of 62-67-62, Smith has been superb all week so far and his talent deserves at least two titles but he's never been convincing in-contention.

Since winning the European Open, Smith has led twice through 54 holes, at the BMW International Open in 2019 and at the ISPS Handa World Invitational last year and he went on to finish third on both occasions, shooting final rounds of 72 and 74.

Gavin Green is the man most likely to benefit should Smith struggle today but he's no better in-the-mix and some fun can be had today backing the chasers at huge odds.

Green is yet to win on the DP World Tour and his best finish to date is second at the Czech Masters in August, but he'd led there by three with a round to go!

A prolific amateur, Green looked destined to hoover up titles after a promising start to his career on the Asian Development Tour, but the 2017 Taiwan Masters is his only victory on the Asian Tour and he's failed to convert on the DP World Tour having sat inside the top-three places with a round to go four times since 2018.

In his defence, the Czech Masters was reduced from 72 to 54 holes because of the weather and he had to sit on his lead there for 24 hours before round three was declared the final round but he's still not one I'd want to go to war with and having backed the man in third, Sebastian Heisele, before round three at 50.049/1, I've now added the seven players trailing by seven and eight strokes at odds of between 80.079/1 and 1000.0999/1.

Over at the Bermuda Championship, the 54-hole leaderboard is a fabulous blend of youth and experience with 24-year-old Ben Griffin tied for the lead with 35-year-old Seamus Power.

Tucked in behind those two in a tie for third we've got another 24-year-old, Kevin Yu, and the 41-year-old Monday qualifier, Aaron Baddeley, and alone in fifth is my 280.0279/1Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Brian Gay, who now plies his trade on the Champions Tour most weeks having turned 50 last December. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 8:25.

Seamus Power -18 2.466/4
Ben Griffin -18 4.131/10
Kevin Yu -16 10.09/1
Aaron Baddeley -16 12.523/2
Brian Gay -15 21.020/1
Thomas Detry -14 21.020/1
Greyson Sigg -14 30.029/1
Will Gordon -13 55.054/1
-12 and 90.089/1 bar

This is Seamus Power's first 54 hole lead or co-lead so it will be interesting to see how he copes.

He won both of his titles (the 2016 United Leasing Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour and the 2021 Barbasol Championship) from off the pace and he finished ninth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February having led by five at halfway!

That's the only time the Irishman has held a lead on any Tour after 36 or 54 holes and on the three occasions that he's led after the opening round of an event he's finished 12th, 19th and 51st so he doesn't have a great track record of frontrunning, and the first three winners of the Bermuda Championship all won from off the pace.

Ben Griffin winning would be some story given he nearly gave the game up last year but it's a huge ask for him to get off the mark on the PGA Tour on his first real opportunity to win and nerves could and should play a part.

Burnout and financial strain caused @BenGriffinGolf to walk away from golf nearly 2 years ago.

He briefly worked as a mortgage loan officer before returning to the @KornFerryTour last season.

He'll play in the final group Sunday as the 54-hole co-leader @Bermuda_Champ pic.twitter.com/inrp22Gnrk

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 29, 2022

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Griffin finished second on the Korn Ferry Tour in back-to-back events in February where he performed admirably in-contention. He was tied for the lead with a round to go at the Astara Golf Championship and he sat third, trailing by two, at the Suncoast Classic a week later. He shot rounds of 69 and 70 to lose by a stroke on both occasions so he's got some experience to call upon and I'd rather play him at in excess of 3/1 than Power at 6/4 but both look worth taking on.

I'm obviously happy to have Gay in the mix after last week's near miss with Kurt Kitayama and it would be great to see him win the title for a second time but I've now also added Baddeley at 13.012/1.

The wind is going to continue to blow throughout the day again today and I like the experienced angle in. Baddeley, who won the first of his four PGA Tour titles, the RBC Heritage, as long ago as 2006, has been around the block enough times to stay patient today and he looks a fair price given he's no bigger than 10/1 on the High Street.

07:40 - October 29, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Portugal Masters and there's just one group yet to finish their second round at the Bermuda Championship the so here are the latest standings at the two events with prices to back at 07:30.

Portugal Masters
Jordan Smith -13 4.3100/30
Gavin Green -13 6.25/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -12 9.417/2
Benjamin Hebert -12 28.027/1
Eddie Pepperell -11 12.523/2
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -11 23.022/1
Sebastian Heisele -11 48.047/1
Rikard Karlberg -11 50.049/1
Hurly Long -10 24.023/1
Joost Luiten -10 40.039/1
Robin Roussel -10 150.0149/1
Joel Stalter -10 160.0159/1
-9 and 28.027/1 bar

Bermuda Championship
Ben Crane -14 27.026/1
Robby Shelton -13 8.27/1
Adam Schenk -13 9.417/2
Austin Smotherman -13 13.525/2
Ben Griffin -13 15.529/2
Aaron Baddeley -13 21.020/1
Seamus Power -12 9.28/1
Zecheng Dou -12 24.023/1
Kevin Yu -12 25.024/1
Dylan Wu -12 46.045/1
Nico Echavarria -12 60.059/1
Zecheng Dou -12 24.023/1
Thomas Detry -11 18.535/2
Scott Brown -11 90.089/1
Fabian Gomez -11 90.089/1
Denny McCarthy -10 27.026/1
-10 and 40.039/1 bar

Staring with the Portugal Masters, Jordan Smith backers will be delighted to see him heading into the weekend tied for the lead, but 36-hole leaders and co-leaders don't have a great record at the tournament's only host course - Dom Pedro Victoria.

The 2014 edition was cut to 36 holes because of wet weather but only two of the other 14 tournament winners have been in front at halfway and as many as 17 players have led or co-led at halfway and been beaten.

Andy Sullivan won by an incredible nine strokes in 2015, having led by three at this stage, and David Lynn went on to win the 2013 edition having been tied at the top with Hennie Otto and Paul Waring at halfway but his route to victory was far less straightforward!

Lynn shot 73 on Saturday to fall to tied 16th (trailing by six) before shooting ten shots less on Sunday to win by a stroke.

Last year's winner, Thomas Pieters, sat second, two off the lead at halfway, but the three winners before him, Tom Lewis, Steven Brown, and George Coetzee, were all outside the top-ten at this stage, trailing by five, six and eight strokes respectively so this is still a wide-open event if recent history is anything to go by.

As this is the last full field event of the season, much of the talk before the off surrounded the Race to Dubai Standings, focussing on those outside the crucial top-117 on the list.

Anyone not already exempt, that finishes outside the top-117 after this week's event will lose their cards next season so that will explain why half of the top-12 are outside that magic number.

Joost Luiten began the week in 136th on the standings and he may well keep his card with a podium finish but the other five - Rikard Karlberg (167th), Benjamin Hebert (179th), Robin Roussel (184th), Joel Stalter (200th), and Sebastian Heisele (206th) - will probably need to win.

That didn't stop Steven Brown three years ago though. He began the week in 150th place on the standings and much like Brown, the task for all of them is straightforward. They simply need to win.

Such clarity of thought may help, and I thought Heisele was a fair price at 50.049/1.

In addition to backing the German modestly, I'm also happy to throw a few pounds at Antoine Rozner at 30.029/1. He's one of nine players tied for 13th and just four off the lead.

Over at the Bermuda Championship, the PM-AM starters have had slightly the better of it. As there's still one group on the course I haven't yet seen the differential between the two sides of the draw over the first two rounds but the majority of the leaders began the event on Thursday afternoon, with the odd man out being Austin Smotherman, who sits tied for second. The only other player inside the top-11 that was drawn AM-PM is Dylan Wu.

This is the fourth edition of the Bermuda Championship and the last two winners, Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert, both trailed by four at halfway and with plenty of wind forecasted today, we could very easily be looking at a very different looking leaderboard tomorrow but the leader, Ben Crane, looked too big at 30.029/1 last night.

Crane was already in the groove when this happened on the par four sixth yesterday (his 15th hole of the day) and he's put himself in a great position to win his sixth PGA Tour title and his first in eight years.

Video game spin

Leader @BenCraneGolf holed out at No. 6 en route to a 62 @Bermuda_Champ pic.twitter.com/uF9lSg7ydU

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 28, 2022

It would be some story if Crane could back up yesterday's 62 and go on to win but the market could well be underestimating the 46-year-old.

Crane won the St Jude Classic wire-to-wire in 2014 and he has a 63% strike rate when leading or co-leading at halfway, converting five of eight 36-hole leads.

From the wrong side of the draw, Austin Smotherman will be disappointed with his finish to round two, He was averaging a remarkable 1.33 putts after 13 holes of his second round, and he was matched at 4.47/2 when he drew alongside Crane.

The putter went cold towards the end of the round but he's clearly playing nicely and of the fancied runners with two to go, he could be the one but just like the Portugal Masters, it's a tough tournament to call.

Of the pre-event market leaders, the pre-event favourite, Denny McCarthy, is still in touch and so too are Seamus Power and Thomas Detry but all three still look too short.

11:00 - October 28, 2022

The second round of the Portugal Masters is well underway and the first round leader, Jordan Smith, who at the time of writing is sitting second behind Gavin Green, has already been matched at a low of 3.711/4.

My pre-event pick, Marcus Kinhult, is currently tied for fourth but I'm going to wait until halfway before getting involved further and I'll be back tonight with a good look at the state of play after 36 holes.

Over on the PGA Tour, Austin Smotherman and Harrison Endycott, lead the Bermuda Championship (previewed here) after round one after the pair both shot nine-under-par 62s in favourable conditions.

Smotherman took the lead in the morning and Endycott drew alongside him in the afternoon.

There was a scoring differential between the two sides of the draw of just 0.32 strokes, in favour of the morning starters and it doesn't look like either side is going to be advantaged.

The wind is due to blow consistently and rain is going to fall throughout the day today so it shouldn't matter what time you tee off.

It's a bunched looking leaderboard, with 15 players within two of the lead but I'm happy to add Ben Martin at 55.054/1.

The 2014 Shriners Children's Open winner, who finished second in the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship last year, played nicely yesterday when posting a seven-under-par 64.

This venue looks perfect for Martin and he was on the shortlist before the off.

Portugal Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Marcus Kinhult @ 95.094/1

In-Play Picks:
Antoine Rozner @ 30.029/1
Sebastian Heisele @ 50.049/1

Bermuda Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Ryan Armour @ 95.094/1
Lucas Glover @ 95.094/1

In-Play Picks:
Ben Martin @ 55.054/1
Ben Crane @ 30.029/1
Aaron Baddeley @ 13.012/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Brice Garnett @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Brian Gay @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Oliver Wilson @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter