Bermuda Championship: Veterans can compete in blustery Bermuda

• A windy week awaits in Bermuda
• Favourites unfancied despite a lack of field strength
• US Open winner fancied to enjoy his return to Southampton

Tournament History

This is just the fourth edition of the Bermuda Championship - an event that began life as an opposite field event when the WGC HSBC Champions in China was still on the schedule.

Venue

Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda

Course Details

Par 71, 6828 yards
Scoring Average in 2021 70.76

Port Royal is a short, wind exposed Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed course, with a number of holes perched right on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

Port Royal's signature hole, the 235-yard par three 16th, with nothing but the Atlantic Ocean between the tee and the pin, is widely regarded as one of the greatest par threes in golf but it's a tough one. It was the toughest on the course last year for the second year-in-a-row, averaging 3.32.

The Bermuda/Zoysia mixed rough is only two inches high but it's still tricky to navigate from and the average sized Bermuda greens will only run at around 10 on the Stimpmeter because of the almost ever present wind.

In addition to the first three editions of this event, Port Royal was also the host course for the now defunct Grand Slam of Golf for six years from 2009. The tournament, which was eventually ditched in 2014, was staged to showcase the four major winners over two rounds. Here are the six winners at Port Royal.

2009 - Lucas Glover - 11
2010 - Ernie Els -5
2011 - Keegan Bradley -4
2012 - Padraig Harrington -9
2013 - Adam Scott -8
2014 - Martin Kaymer -6

For more on the venue, here's the PGA Tour's course guide.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:30 on Thursday

First Three Winners with Pre-event Exchange Price

2019 - Brendon Todd -24 150.0149/1
2020 - Brian Gay -15 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2021 - Lucas Herbert -15 65.064/1

What Will it Take to Win the Bermuda Championship?

Although length won over accuracy last year, with the winner ranking seventh for Driving Distance and 53rd for Driving Accuracy, I'd still favour the accurate types off the tee.

The stats are limited and according to Rob Bolton, who writes for the PGA Tour website, only two holes in opposite directions are used to measure distance off the tee here - the par five second and the par four 12th.

The stats are of limited use but both the first two winners ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and when Brendon Todd won the inaugural edition, six of the top-ten ranked inside the top-ten for Driving Accuracy. Gay was one of four players inside the top-ten to rank inside the top-ten for DA two years ago.

Starting in 2019, the three winners to date have ranked 10th, 15th and 58th for Greens in Regulation, fourth, 16th and 14th for Scrambling and third, sixth and 10th so a great short game and a hot putter is the key to success.

There was a difference of nine strokes between the first winning score and the last two and that was all down to the strength of the wind.

The wind gusted up to 40mph during round one last year and Matt Fitzpatrick described the conditions as "Brutal. The hardest wind I've ever played in." And Scotland's Russell Knox concurred, "I've never experienced wind that strong."

Is There an Angle In?

There are a number of events staged at courses similar to Port Royal. The Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic are all held on coastal, wind-affected courses and the host venues, Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sea Island Resort are all Bermuda.

Gay certainly boosted the links between Port Royal and those three tracks. He has three top-tens at Waialae (home of the Sony), he won the RBC at Harbour Town by a record ten strokes in 2009, and he has a fourth and a third in the RSM Classic at Sea Island.

Although the course used is entirely laid to Paspalum and not Bermuda, the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in the Dominican Republic is a tournament to consider as well. That too is staged on a windy, exposed, coastal layout away from the United States but it's another overseas tournament, next week's World Wide technology Championship at Mayakoba in Mexico, that's surely the best guide given the first two winners of this event have also won at El Camaleon Golf Club.

Brian Gay won the Mayakoba in 2008 and Todd took the title in 2019, two weeks after he'd won here.

And the link was boosted again last year when Danny Lee finished second here. He was third at El Camaleon in 2014 and second in 2018.

Lee also finished tied for seventh last year, a week after finishing second here.

Wily old pros set to shine in the wind again

Todd was 34 when he won here three years ago and a year after finishing third behind Todd, Gay won in 2020 at the age of 48.

The shortness of the course certainly helps the older players but the main reason they've prospered is the conditions. You can't beat experience when the wind starts howling and according to the early forecasts, after a fairly benign day on Thursday, the field are going to encounter blustery conditions again this year. As they did in both 2020 and 2021.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2019 - Brendon Todd - solo second, trailing by two 6.611/2
2020 - Brian Gay - tied fifth, trailing by three 27.026/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert - solo third, trailing by four 8.07/1

In-Play Tactics

Windy conditions often result in changeable leaderboards and all three winners have started slowly. Herbert sat tied for 26th and five off the lead after day one. Todd trailed by six in a tie for 25th after round one, before a 63 in round two saw him tied for the lead at halfway, and Gay came from even further back.

Matched in-running at a high of 840.0839/1, Gay trailed by seven in a tie for 64th after the opening round and he was still four adrift and tied for 12th at halfway.

It's worth keeping a close eye on the forecast this week. It's been changing over the last couple of days and at the time of writing there doesn't appear to be much of a draw bias but that could change dramatically by Thursday and one side of the draw could be advantaged considerably.

The PM-AM starters scored only marginally better than the AM-PM starters in 2021 (0.66 strokes), but the differential was more acute last year when the afternoon starters on Thursday averaged 2.88 strokes less than the day one early starters over the first two days and in 2019. the AM-PM side of the draw averaged 2.76 strokes better than those that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Market Leaders

I know this is a weak renewal but if there's any value at the head of the market, I can't see it.

I backed this year's favourite, Denny McCarthy, at 55.054/1 here 12 months ago when he finished 39th, having finished 15th on debut and fourth two years ago and he's not in any better form this time around.

He finished an impressive fifth in the Memorial Tournament and seventh at the US Open in June but his tied 20th in the St Jude Championship in August is his only top-20 finish in eight starts.

McCarthy looks a poor price at 21.020/1 and the three men trading at less than 30.029/1 all look too short too.

Seamus Power has been far from convincing in-contention of late, he hasn't finished any better than 30th since June and his course form reads an ordinary 31-37-12.

Thomas Detry, who was 21st here on debut last year, has tried 139 times to break his duck on the inferior DP World Tour without success so he makes no appeal and Mark Hubbard is zero from 165 starts on the PGA Tour.

He's been in fine form of late but performed poorly on Sunday at the Sandersons last month when leading with a round to go (shot 74 to finish fifth) and on two previous visits here he's finished only 41st and 22nd.

Selections

I'll be back tomorrow with the Find Me a 100 Winner column and I'll have at least one here, but I have backed a couple of veterans trading at less than 100/1 - albeit only just.

Ryan Armour has a pair off top-eight finishes here and both were achieved in very different fashions. He came from off the pace after a slow start on debut but finished poorly in 2020 having led at halfway and having sat second and just one off the lead with a round to go.

He was a 70.069/1 chance 12 months ago when in only ordinary form so I thought 95.094/1 was fair given he's shown glimpses of late.

He's missed two of his last four cuts but when he's made it through to the weekend he's finished fifth at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and 13th at the Sandersons Farms Championship, where he ranked fourth for Scrambling.

Armour was also fourth at El Camaleon back in 2007.

At the same price, the 2009 US Open winner, Lucas Glover, is an interesting runner given he's already a course winner (the 2009 Grand Slam of Golf).

He hasn't played in this event yet, but he won't mind how windy it gets and he looks a fair price given he was third in the competitive St Jude Championship four start ago, that he won the John Deere Classic only last year and that he was fifth at El Camaleon 12 months ago.

His putting is generally awful but every now and then the flatstick works and he contends - as it did at the St Jude when he topped the Putting Average stats.

Selections:
Ryan Armour @ 95.094/1
Lucas Glover @ 95.094/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter