The Punter's In-Play Blog: Valimaki up by two at Sea Island

• Valimaki bidding to be the fifth 54-hole leader to win in six years

• Leader fairly priced with 18 to play

• Hodges added at a juicy price

10:00 - November 23, 2025

Having led the RSM Classic at halfway, my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Andrew Novak, started round three perfectly, with a birdie at the first, but he didn't kick on from there, eventually posting a lacklustre level par 70 around the Seaside Course at Sea Island and with 18 holes to play, he now trails the 54-hole leader, Sami Valimaki, by three.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back, by 09:50.

Sami Valimaki -19 2.6613/8
Michael Thorbjornsen -17 6.05/1
Patrick Rodgers -17 9.417/2
Andrew Novak -16 16.531/2
Johnny Keefer -16 20.019/1
Zac Blair -16 21.020/1
Si Woo Kim -15 26.025/1
Eric Cole -15 36.035/1
Max McGreevy -15 36.035/1
Seamus Power -15 40.039/1
Lee Hodges -15 65.064/1
-14 and 65.064/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, there have been a couple of winners here that were trailing by a significant number of strokes with a round to go.

Ben Crane came from five shots back to win in 2012 and a year later, Tommy Gainey hit 60 in round four to win by a stroke, having trailed by seven after 54 holes!

Robert Streb began the fourth round trailing by five strokes in 2014 and trading at 110.0109/1 before he went on to win for the first time and 12 months earlier, Tim Clark very nearly did the same thing.

He also began round four trailing by five strokes and trading at a triple figure price, and he was matched at just 4.03/1 after he'd shot a final round of 62 (one better than Streb and Crane). He would have made a playoff if Chris Kirk hadn't birdied the penultimate hole and Patrick Rodgers lost in a playoff seven years ago having trailed by five with 18 to play.

There's clearly scope for backing someone from off the pace today but it's a tricky event to weigh up given four of the last five winners were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and that Adam Svensson trailed by just a stroke after three rounds when he won three years ago.

Leading by two, my halfway pick, Sami Valimaki, is the firm favourite and rightfully so.

Over the last 10 years, two-stroke 54-hole leaders on the PGA Tour have a 44% strike rate and four of the last five men to lead by two with 18 to play have gone on to win.

Valimaki was beaten in a playoff at the 2023 Czech Masters on the DP World Tour, having been tied for the lead through 54 holes but he won the Oman Open in extra time in 2020 having been tied at the top with 18 to play and on he went on to win on all four occasions that he led or co-led on the Pro Golf Tour in 2019 so he has a solid enough record when leading.

Odds in excess of 6/42.50 look very fair.

I'm obviously happy to have Valimaki onside at 10/111.00 and I haven't given up on Novak yet, but I've also added a very small bet on Lee Hodges, who trails by four.

Hodges can go super low when he gets on a roll (won the 3M Open by seven) and he looks a bit big at 65.064/1 given he's no bigger than 40/141.00 on the High Street.

22:00 - November 21, 2025

We've reached the halfway stage of the RSM Classic and my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Andrew Novak, leads by one.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:55.

Andrew Novak -16 4.94/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -15 5.49/2
Patrick Rodgers -15 8.07/1
Sami Valimaki -14 11.010/1
Greyson Sigg -14 16.531/2
Johnny Keefer -13 24.023/1
J.T Poston -12 24.023/1
Eric Cole -12 34.033/1
-12 and 60.059/1 bar

Last year's winner, Maverick McNealy, trailed by a solitary stroke at halfway and the 2023 winner, Ludvig Aberg, led by a stroke at this stage before he shot back-to-back 61s over the weekend to win by four.

Aberg was the seventh winner in eight years to be leading or tied for the lead at halfway, and with the forecast suggesting a benign weekend, we really should be concentrating on the leaders, although stats can be misleading.

The 2022 winner, Adam Svensson, trailed by seven at halfway in 43^rd place and seven men have made it to a playoff in the last nine years having trailed by between 3 and 12 shots after 36 holes.

The leader, Novak, was matched at a low of just 2.447/5 today when he led by four strokes.

Having played his first 11 holes of round two in seven-under-par around the Plantation Course, Novak threatened to put some real daylight between himself and the field, but he played his final seven holes in level-par.

Birdie
Par
Birdie
Birdie
Birdie
Birdie
Birdie
Birdie@AndrewNovakGolf is on fire at his home course @TheRSMClassic pic.twitter.com/wlVFUvp73j

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 21, 2025

The fact that seven of the last nine winners have been leading or tied for the lead at halfway bodes well for Novak and he looks a fair price at almost 4/15.00.

The two players tied for second, Michael Thrbjornsen and Patrick Rodgers, were both in-the-mix this time last year.

Thorbjornsen was tied fourth, trailing by two, and Rodgers sat tied for ninth, four off the lead. They went on to finish tied eighth and tied 17^th respectively.

Sami Valimaki, who was a Find Me a 100 pick at 130.0129/1 when he finished tied for second behind Ben Griffin in Mexico a couple of weeks ago is an interesting runner at a double-figure price.

The Finn is no bigger than 17/2 on the High Street and I was happy to add him at 11.010/1.

I've also added a small wager on J.T Poston, who sits tied for seventh and four back.

The 32-year-old three-time PGA Tour winner finished tied for fifth 12 months ago (beaten by two) having sat tied for 49^th and 10 off the lead at halfway so he's much closer to the front this year after 36 holes.

I'll be back tomorrow night or on Sunday morning after the third round.

Now read more Golf tips and previews here