The Punter's In-Play Blog: Defending champ up by one in Illinois

• Leader fairly priced to defend the title

• 54 holes leaders have a decent record

• Cambell chanced with 18 to play

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13:30 - July 6, 2025

Doug Ghim led the John Deere Classic at halfway but following a three-over-par 74 on Saturday he's dropped outside the top 20 with a round to go.

The defending champion, Davis Thompson, birdied the last two holes of his third round to post a four-under-par 67 and he's in pole position with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 13:20.

Davis Thompson -15 3.211/5
Emiliano Grillo -14 6.411/2
Max Homa -14 6.411/2
Brian Campbell -14 12.523/2
David Lipsky -14 15.014/1
Kurt Kitayama -12 23.022/1
Austin Eckroat -12 26.025/1
Seamus Power -12 32.031/1
Camilo Villegas -12 60.059/1
-11 and 48.047/1 bar

Bidding to become the fourth man to defend the title, Thompson is also bidding to become the 11^th of 20 players to convert a clear 54-hole lead on a Sunday at Deere Run this century.

He led by two last year but he's the seventh to lead by a solitary stroke this century and he's attempting to become the fourth to go on and win.

I like the leaders' chances, and the stats suggest he's fairly priced at more than 2/13.00, but with four players hard on his heels, it's not going to be easy.

Of the four, at the odds available, the recent Mexico Open winner, Brian Campbell, appears to represent a bit of value.

The University of Illinois alumni is clearly enjoying the week and given he's already tucked away a title this year, he may feel less pressure than the other three in closest pursuit. I thought 12/113.00 was fair.

With a gap of two to the group tied for sixth, it's highly likely that one of the top five get the job done but five of the last 11 winners have trailed by at least four strokes so we certainly can't rule out an off the pace winner.

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10:30 - July 6, 2025

Pre-event 150.0149/1 chance, Daniel Brown, moved up 21 places into a tie for third with a second round 65 and having repeated the feat in round three, he now leads the BMW International Open by a stroke. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20.

Daniel Brown -16 3.814/5
Jordan Smith -15 3.185/40
Joost Luiten -13 12.011/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -12 12.523/2
Marco Penge -12 17.016/1
Kristoffer Reitan -12 18.017/1
Yuto Katsuragawa -12 36.035/1
Davis Bryant -12 40.039/1
Brandon Stone -11 50.049/1
Ivan Cantero -11 80.079/1
Ashun Wu -11 100.099/1
-10 and 50.049/1 bar

Brown is the 17^th player to hold a clear lead with 18 to play at Golfclub München Eichenried and he's looking to become only the seventh to convert.

The first two players to lead by just one, Robert Karlsson in 1997 and Colin Montgomerie two years later, both went on to win but the next three to hold a one stroke lead - Padraig Harrington (2001), Luke Donald (2005) and Jordan Smith (2019), were all beaten so it's a tough place to convert from the front.

It's absolutely no surprise to see Smith back on the premises here given he was also tied for the lead 12 months ago and he's the man the market favours.

In addition to leading here twice with 18 to play, Smith also sat tied for third in 2022, but he finished tamely on Sunday to end the week in eighth place.

This is Smith's fifth visit to the track and on the four previous occasions he's played here he's shot 73, 72, 72 and 70 on a Sunday. He's a notoriously weak finisher and he's certainly not for me at around 2/13.00.

The man alone in third, Joost Luiten, is also not the most reliable in contention and he gave up a three-stroke lead here just two years ago, shooting 74 in round four.

The Dutchman will be far happier chasing but if I had to back one of the front three, it would have to be Brown, although it's far from easy to gauge how he'll cope in the heat of battle today.

He successfully converted a six-stroke lead to win the ISPS Handa World Invitational two years ago to claim is only win to date on the DP World Tour but he was disappointing when leading the SDC Championship in South Africa last year.

Having led by three at halfway, he was tied for the lead with 18 to play following a 72 on Saturday but he finished the week in fourth after a 75 on Sunday.

Given the record of 54 leaders here and the calibre of the leading three, there's definitely scope for an off the pace winner.

Although disappointed by their third rounds, I haven't given up on either of my first two in-play picks.

Reitan has shot 67, 70, 62, 60, 68 and 68 in his last six starts on a Sunday so he's clearly not out of it.

He won the Soudal Open in a playoff in May having trailed by nine after three rounds and he finished second in Austria, beaten by two, having trailed by eight on Sunday morning.

I'm less hopeful about the halfway leader, Davis Bryant, but he may well play better today now he hasn't got the pressure of trying to hold the lead.

In addition to cheering those two on, I've also had a very small bet on Ashun Wu at a triple-figure price.

Wu's a five-time winner on the DP World Tour and if he gets a sniff of a chance, he usually gets the job done.

Trailing by five, he's far from out of it given he was four adrift when winning in Kenya three years ago and in China in April.

On both occasions he shot 65 on Sunday and he's a sporting option this morning.

I'll be later with a look at the John Deere Classic where the defending champion, Davis Thompson, has hit the front.

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06:40 - July 5, 2025

We may have reached the halfway stage of the John Deere Classic but it's an event I'm still wary to get too involved in.

It's a really difficult tournament to gauge looking at the stats.

Given it's a low scoring event we probably should be concentrating on the leaders and six of the last eight winners have been inside the top four places and no more than two off the lead at halfway but being in front isn't ideal.

The first-round leader, Doug Ghim, leads by a solitary stroke over a group of five that includes the defending champion, Davis Thompson, with as many as six players tied for seventh and just two off the lead so he looks vulnerable anyway, before we look at the stats...

We've seen only three halfway leaders or co-leaders kick on and win since JP Hayes converted from the front in 2002 and even though it's tight at the top, we can't rule out an off the pace winner entirely given four of the last 11 winners were outside the top ten after two rounds.

We've seen three winners come from five back after 36 holes in the last 10 years and the 2023 winner, Sepp Straka, was seven shots off the pace at halfway!

Jordan Spieth, ten years ago, who sat tied for 16th and five off the lead at halfway, was the last man to win the title a second time but multiple winners are fairly common with five men winning at least twice since Deane Beman won the first two editions in 1971 and '72.

Steve Stricker won the tournament three years in-a-row between 2010 and 2012 so given he's returned to the lucky house again this year, I was happy to chance Thompson modestly at 8.415/2.

For the last 3 years, each winner @JDClassic has stayed in the same rental home in Silvis, Illinois.

It is officially the Trophy House pic.twitter.com/5sj8SL5NBx

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 7, 2024

Thompson who sat tied for fourth and two off the lead at this stage 12 months ago, clearly loves it here given he fired weekend rounds of 62 and 64 to win by four and to set the new tournament record winning total of 256 (28-under-par) and he's a very worthy favourite.

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21:35 - July 4, 2025

Play was delayed at the BMW International Open this morning due to dangerous weather, but it wasn't a lengthy delay, and the event is still on track.

Aided by an ace at the par three 12^th, his third hole of the day, the 25-year-old American, Davis Bryant, signed for the lowest round of the day - a nine-under-par 63 - and he leads by two at the halfway stage.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:25.

Davis Bryant -12 7.413/2
Kristoffer Reitan -10 8.88/1
Jordan Smith -9 8.88/1
Daniel Brown -9 19.018/1
Yuto Katsuragawa -9 25.024/1
David Puig -8 10.09/1
Francesco Laporta -8 22.021/1
Scott Jamieson -8 60.059/1
Ryggs Johnston -8 110.0109/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -7 16.015/1
-7 and 40.039/1 bar

Although generally a 280.0279/1 chance before the off (matched at as high as 550.0549/1) Bryant had telegraphed his wellbeing last week in Tuscany when he finished 10^th in the Italian Open and the stats suggest he's the man to beat now.

It's not going to be easy to back-up today's super-low knock around a rain-softened course, but since the turn of the century, we've seen 16 men hold a clear lead at halfway at Golfclub München Eichenried and seven of them went on to win.

Although a new name to many, Bryant won both the Colorado and Wyoming State Opens last summer and he may be being underrated by the market at odds of around 13/27.50.

He's shortened up since he finished his round when I was able to back him modestly at 8.415/2 but the stats suggest he's still a fair price.

Yesterday's in-play pick, Kristoffer Reitan, was one of five men to shoot a seven-under-par 65 today and he's moved up into solo second so other than adding the leader, I'm going to leave the event alone and see where we are on Sunday morning.

Flawless round from Kristoffer Reitan 🇳🇴

He moves into T2.#BMWInternationalOpen pic.twitter.com/59bYsznSgr

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 4, 2025

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08:05 - July 4, 2025

As demonstrated below, there was a considerable draw bias in favour of the early starters on day one of the John Deere Classic yesterday.

69.58 = R1 scoring → @JDCLASSIC

68.65 = early
70.50 = late

-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) July 4, 2025

On a typically bunched early leaderboard, four strokes separate the top 23 but only four of those 23 teed it up in the afternoon yesterday.

The top seven on the leaderboard all kicked the event of yesterday morning and Brian Campbell and Kris Ventura, who sit tied for eighth with seven others, are the only two players inside the top 16 places that have been drawn PM-AM.

The early pacesetter, Doug Ghim, is the 10/111.00 favourite but it's absolutely wide open and I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now and see what today brings.

Low scoring birdie-fests like this typically suit the frontrunners but two of the last nine winners have sat outside the top 100 after round one, four of the last 15 victors have shot a round in the 70s and over that timespan we've seen winners trailing by five, six, seven (twice), eight and even 11 strokes after round one.

Sepp Straka, who was 11 back after a 73 on Thursday two years ago, was still tied for 29^th and seven off the lead at halfway after a 63 on Friday but six of the last eight winners have been inside the top four places and no more than two off the lead at the midway point so leaving the event alone for now and concentrating on the leaders tomorrow morning makes sense.

I'll be back later today with a detailed look at the BMW International Open when, hopefully, they've reached the halfway point but played has been delayed this morning due to dangerous weather.

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20:55 - July 3, 2025

The afternoon starters are off and running at the John Deere Classic but they're going to have to go some to get to morning starter, Doug Ghim, who fired a bogey-free nine-under-par 62 to set the pace.

Ghim, who was a 120.0119/1 chance to win the event before the off, is a long odds-on shot to end the day in front and  I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and take a closer look in the morning, but I have got involved in-running on the DP World Tour...

On a tricky first day in Germany, nobody bettered five-under-par at Golfclub München Eichenried and it was the afternoon wave that averaged slightly better than the morning starters.

The PM starters averaged 71.68 compared to the 72.29 averaged in the morning and three of the top five on the leaderboard after round one of the BMW International Open kicked off the tournament this afternoon.

My 290.0289/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Darius van Driel, is one of the five tied at the top after round one but it's the English duo of Marco Penge and Jordan Smith that are vying for favouritism.

Penge, who won the Hainan Open in April, is alongside van Diel, Gavin Green, Ugo Coussaud and Wenji Ding at the head of affairs and Smith is one of six men tied for sixth and just one off the lead on -4.

Five way tie for the lead

How it finished after the opening round in Munich #BMWInternationalOpen pic.twitter.com/TY52r3Beye

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 3, 2025

It's very early days, and with 23 players separated by two strokes at the top of the leaderboard, it's obviously tough to call, but at 33/134.00, I was happy to back the recent Soudal Open winner, Kristoffer Reitan.

As highlighted in the preview, form at the Soudal Open's venue, Rinkven International, holds up really well here and it was van Driel's record there that led me to include him this week, so it makes sense to back the man that beat him there in a playoff in May given he trails by just two after round one.

Reitan was generally a 42.041/1 chance before the off so he's a fair price at anything over 30.029/1 after his opening salvo.

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BMW International Open Pre-Event Pick:
Martin Couvra each-way @ 35/136.00

In-Play Picks:
Kristoffer Reitan @ 34.033/1
Davis Bryant @ 8.415/2
Ashun Wu @ 100.099/1

John Deere Classic Pre-Event Picks:
Jake Knapp @ 46.045/1
Nico Echavarria @ 70.069/1

In-Play Picks:
Dvais Thompson @ 8.415/2
Brian Campbell @ 13.012/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Column

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