The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kizzire kicks clear in California

• Stats suggest leader is very fairly priced

• Canadians queueing up to challenge

• Defending champ can't be ruled out

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09:55 - September 15, 2024

The 36-hole leader, Patton Kizzire, rattled off three birdies in-a-row from the third hole in yesterday's third round to take a stranglehold of the Procore Championship and he ended the day with a four-stroke lead. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:50.

Patton Kizzire -18 1.875/6
David Lipsky -14 16.015/1
Corey Connors -13 8.88/1
Mackenzie Hughes -13 12.011/1
Patrick Fishburn -13 17.016/1
Greyson Sigg -13 30.029/1
Sahith Theegala -12 16.5
Ben Silverman -12 46.045/1
Wilson Furr -12 85.084/1
-11 and 120.0119/1 bar

A year after finishing 17^th, having led by a stroke after three rounds, Brendon Steele won the weather-interrupted 2016 Procore Championship at Silverado, having trailed by four strokes with a round to go, and Ryan Moore was beaten in a playoff two years later, having trailed by seven after three rounds, but in nine of the ten editions staged here, three strokes is the most any winner has trailed by and eight of the ten winners at Silverado have been within two of the lead with a round to go.

That all bodes well for the 310.0309/1 pre-event shot, Kizzire, who had led here himself by a stroke in 2016, when he eventually finished second, having been matched at a low of 1.68/13.

His long game unravelled on Sunday that year and it's not been brilliant this year so far, but he was in search of his first win on the PGA Tour eight years ago and his two-under-par 70 wasn't a terrible performance.

A little over a year later, Kizzire successfully converted a one-stroke lead at what's now called the World Wide Technology Championship to win the first of his two PGA Tour titles and that was the last time he led with a round to go.

Given how big he was before the off, it's perhaps understandable to see him trading at around 10/111.91 but that's far too big and once again, although odds-on, a clear leader represents value.

Back in May/June, there was a five-week spell on the PGA Tour in which four players led a PGA Tour event by four strokes and all four went on to win. In fact, the last seven players to lead by four after 54 holes on the PGA Tour have gone on to win.

If we scan even further back, since 1996, 66 players have held a four-stroke lead in a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 49 of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of 74% so it's impossible to make a case for taking on the leader at around 1.910/11.

The Canadian pair, Corey Connors, and my 60.059/1 pre-event pick, Mackenzie Hughes, are big dangers as they look to win again ahead of next week's Presidents Cup in which they both star, and the defending champ, Sahith Theegala is still lurking menacingly in a tie for seventh, but they'll all need help from the leader and that might not be forthcoming.

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22:00 - September 14, 2024

Rory McIlroy has already been matched at as low as 1.51/2 to win the Irish Open but a bogey at the par five 18^th today - his final hole of the third round - has given the rest some hope. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:50.

Rory McIlroy -6 1.9210/11
Matteo Manassero -5 5.95/1
Robert MacIntyre -3 11.010/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -3 14.5
Jordan Smith -3 22.021/1
Erik Van Rooyen -3 24.023/1
Laurie Canter -2 48.047/1
Calum Hill -2 90.089/1
Adrian Otaegui -2 95.094/1
Aaron Cockerill -2 140.0139/1
-1 and 180.0179/1 bar

As he alluded to after today's round, winning tomorrow would be a huge deal for Rory but odds of better than 10/111.91 on the exchange look fair.

"The last couple of times I've played in Northern Ireland it hasn't really panned out the way I wanted so to play a good three days here and be in the final group and give myself a chance tomorrow, I'm excited for the opportunity.

"After the sort of year that I've had and the close misses it wouldn't make up for all of it, but it would go a long way in putting a nice shine on 2024 for me.

"I can't get that far ahead of myself, I need to go out and play another very solid round tomorrow to try to get the job done but I'm pleased with how the first three days have gone."

This is the 21^st time he's held a clear lead with a round to go and he has a 65% strike rate. He's led by a solitary stroke only seven times previously, but he's gone on to win four times.

He's looking to convert his fourth 54-hole lead in-a-row and his third consecutive one-stroke lead, so all things considered, he's not too short a price but it wasn't a straightforward victory on the last occasion he led by one with a round to go...

Rory was one in front at last year's Scottish Open, but he was matched at a double figure price with just two holes to play.

Robert MacIntyre had come from off the pace with a sensational final round and he was matched at a low of just 1.141/7 when he led by a stroke in the clubhouse after a sensational birdie at the 72^nd hole.

It looked highly likely that the Scotsman was going to take the title in his homeland, but Rory responded by finishing birdie-birdie to take the title.

MacIntyre returned to the Renaissance Club in July this year to gain redemption by becoming the first Scotsman to win the Scottish Open since Colin Montgomerie in 1999, but he won't have forgotten the way the title was snatched away from him last year and he'll be looking for revenge tomorrow.

Following his success in Canada in June and his victory in his homeland in July, MacIntyre is in search of his third victory in 11 starts and he's a big danger to the leader.

Matteo Manassero is Rory's closest challenger, after his one-over-par 72 today, but he makes no appeal at 5/16.00.

He's also won already this year, having won the Jonsson Workwear Open in South African back in March, but he's twice been inside the top-four places with around to go since and he's gone backwards on Sunday on both occasions.

He fell from fourth (trailing by five) to fifth at the Indian Open in March and he fell from third (trailing by two) to seventh at the KLM Open in June. He could bounce bounce back after today's over-par round but he's short enough to do so.

A case could be made for the other three men tied for third - Jordan Smith, Erik Van Rooyen and Rasmus Hojgaard.

All three are DP World Tour winners and Van Rooyen has won twice on the PGA Tour but of the four tied for third, MacIntyre is my idea of the most likely to cause Rory a problem and odds in excess of 10/111.00 look fair.

I've had a small bet on the Scotsman, and I've also had a tiny wager on Spain's Adrian Otaegui, who trails by four in a tie for seventh.

The 31-year-old has won five times on the DP World Tour already and two of his victories have been at links venues.

After three rounds, he ranks first for Driving Accuracy and second for Greens In Regulation so he looks fractionally big at 95.094/1 given he's no bigger than 66/167.00 on the High Street.

Rory is obviously the most likely winner, and his price is fair but I'm happy to oppose him at odds-on with MacIntyre and Otaegui.

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09:15 - September 14, 2024

Both the Irish Open and the Procore Championship have reached the halfway stage so here are the two leaderboards with prices to back at 9:10.

Irish Open
Matteo Manassero -6 6.86/1
Laurie Canter -5 11.010/1
Todd Clements -5 27.026/1
Rory McIlroy -4 4.3100/30
Ewen Ferguson -4 16.5
Alejandro Del Rey -4 44.043/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -3 19.5
Erik Van Rooyen -3 30.029/1
Connor Syme -3 40.039/1
Daniel Brown -3 46.045/1
Calum Hill -3 50.049/1
Jens Dantorp -3 130.0129/1
Niklas Norgaard -2 44.043/1
Shubhankar Sharma -2 80.079/1
Fredric Lacroix -2 80.079/1
Aaron Cockerill -2 220.0219/1
Filippo Celli -2 310.0309/1
Jaco Prinsloo -2 430.0429/1
Shane Lowry -1 25.024/1
Robert MacIntyre -1 34.033/1
Jordan Smith -1 75.074/1
-1 and 100.099/1 bar

Procore Championship
Patton Kizzire -13 7.06/1
David Lipsky -12 12.5
Patrick Fishburn -11 8.415/2
JJ Spaun -10 7.87/1
Matt Kuchar -10 10.519/2
Sahith Theegala -9 7.413/2
-8 and 25.024/1 bar

Alejandro Del Rey led by four strokes at one stage yesterday morning (matched at a low of 7.06/1) at the Irish Open and my Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Daniel Brown (matched at a low of 13.012/1) was in front with just one hole to play of his second round but danger awaits all over the layout at Royal County Down and both men experienced calamitous holes.

Del Rey made a quadruple-bogey at the par four 15^th and Brown finished his round with a seven at the par four ninth.

Shubhankar Sharma tied the course record with a six-under-par 65 yesterday but at the halfway stage, it's Matteo Manassero that shows the way after the Italian chalked up a 66 that included two eagles.

With the wind picking up in the afternoon yesterday, the PM-AM side of the draw were advantaged to the tune of 1.49 strokes so the likes of Manassero, Brown and my other Find Me a 100 selection, Ewen Ferguson, who sits alongside the hot favourite, Rory McIlroy, in a tie for fourth have performed admirably.

My in-play pick, Thriston Lawrence, was very disappointing, playing his last seven holes in five-over-par in the best of the conditions to fall from -5 to level par but I'm adding one more at halfway...

This looks very tough to call but I was happy to add the recent impressive Danish Golf Championship winner, Frederic Lacroix, at 85.084/1.

Vincent Norrman last year, Adrian Meronk in 2022 and John Catlin in 2020 all won this event having recently won on the DP World Tour so Lacroix going in again wouldn't be a huge surprise.

The Frenchman looks big at his current price of 80.079/1 given he only trails by four, that he's no bigger than 55/156.00 on the High Street, and he too was drawn on the wrong side of the draw.

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Over at the Procore Championship, the 2016 runner-up, Patton Kizzire, leads by a stroke and he heads what is a wide-open market.

Kizzire has led or co-led at halfway once on the Korn Ferry Tour and once on the PGA Tour and he went on to win on both occasions.

That's a big plus for the leader and the last two winners, Sahith Theegala and Max Homa, were both tied for the lead at halfway but in the ten previous editions of the event at this venue - Silverado - we've seen winners come from as far as six, seven, eight and even nine adrift after 36 holes so we can't really dismiss anyone just yet.

Brendon Steele and Max Homa have both made successful title defences here so the eye is drawn to Theegala, who trails by four after a fine finish to his second round (birdied four of his last six), and we can't rule out the man in second, David Lipsky, who's looking to become the latest Californian-born to take the title.

My pre-event pick, Mackenzie Hughes, who ranks first for Scrambling at halfway, is one of 12 players six off the lead in a tie for 10^th so I certainly haven't given up on him and I was very tempted to leave the event alone for now but there's just enough juice in the leader at 6/17.00 to draw me in.

Ranking third for Greens In Regulation and 11^th for the key stat here, Scrambling, Kizzire is clearly in control of his game and 7.06/1 looks fair given he's no bigger than 5/16.00 on the High Street.

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22:25 - September 12, 2024

Conditions were fairly tough throughout the entire day during round one of this year's Irish Open at Royal County Down, but the afternoon starters got the better of the weather.

As many as seven of the top eight on the leaderboard kicked off the event in the afternoon and there was a draw bias in favour of the latter starters of 0.74 of a stroke.

Todd Clements leads after a five-under-par 66, with Sami Valimaki and Alejandro Del Rey tied for second on -4 but the eye is immediately drawn to the group tied for fourth on -3 which includes Rory McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence.

Having opened up at around 6/17.00 on Exchange, Rory drifted all the way out to 9.28/1 before the off but after he finished his opening round with three birdies in-a-row, he's now a solid 3.613/5 chance with three rounds to go.

A round of 68 to start for Rory

He's currently T4 at Royal County Down. #AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/LWMdiMV3T4

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 12, 2024

Rory and Co look like they'll encounter the best conditions of the entire week tomorrow morning and the afternoon starters may find they have ground to make up when they get to the course.

I'm not in a rush to back Rory at around 5/23.50 but I was happy to have a small wager on Lawrence.

The in-form South African, who finished fourth in the Open in July, was a tempting price at around 34.033/1 before the off and he looks very fairly priced ahead of round two at around 11/112.00.

Lawrence tees off at 7:50 tomorrow morning, ten minutes before Rory, and he has a great opportunity to make hay early on in the benign conditions.

I'll take a look at the Procore Championship tomorrow. Morning starter, David Lipsky currently leads after a seven-under-par 65 but the afternoon wave are still on the course.

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Irish Open In-Play Picks:
Thriston Lawrence @ 12.5
Frederic Lacroix @ 85.084/1
Robert MacIntyre @ 11.521/2
Adrian Otaegui @ 95.094/1

Procore Championship Pre-event Pick:
Mackenzie Hughes @ 60.059/1

In-Play Pick:
Patton Kizzire @ 7.06/1

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Find Me a 100 Winner column

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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