Procore Championship: 59/1 Hughes is The Punter's only pick at Silverado

• Scrambling the key stat at Silverado

• Look to the locals to shine in California

• Read my Irish Open preview here

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Tournament History

After a fortnight off following Scotties Scheffler's facile victory at the Tour Championship, the PGA Tour resumes on Thursday with the first of eight Fall Series events - the Procure Championship in California. - formerly the Fortinet Championship.

Formerly known as the Fortinet Championship, the Safeway Open, and before that, the Frys.com Open, the Procore Championship is a fairly new event and it's only been in existence since 2007.

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Venue

The North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa Valley, California

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Course Details

Par 72, 7123 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 71.16

After three years at Grey Hawk in Arizona and four at Cordevalle in San Martin, California, the Procore Championship moved to the North Course at the Silverado Resort in Napa Valley, California ten years ago.

The Robert Trent Jones Jr designed North Course opened in 1957, but it has been substantially reworked in recent years by Troon Golf and one of the venues co-owners, Johnny Miller.

In addition to the last ten editions of this event, Silverado hosted the Kaiser International between 1968 and 1976 and the Anheuser-Busch Golf Classic from 1977 to 1980 and some of the game's legends won here during those 13 years.

Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and Ben Crenshaw all tasted victor at Silverado and some big names also won here during the 15 years it saw Champions Tour golf when it hosted the Transamerica from 1989 to 2002, with the likes of Bernard Langer, Lee Trevino, Tom Kite and Dave Stockton all winning here.

The fairways are largely tree-lined and reasonably tight. The rough was set to a height of 2 1/1 inches last year and the Poa-annua greens ran at 11.5 on the stimpmeter - a fairly modest pace by PGA standards.

Although the yardage was unchanged 12 months ago, the routing of the course was altered. Holes 14-17 used to be holes 8-11, while the old stretch from 12-17 are now holes 8-13.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 23:00 on Thursday in the UK

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Sahith Theegala -21 18.017/1
2022 - Max Homa -16 18.017/1
2021 - Max Homa -19 80.079/1
2020 - Stewart Cink -21 570.0569/1
2019 - Cameron Champ -17 200.0199/1
2018 - Kevin Tway -14 110.0109/1 (playoff)
2017 - Brendon Steele -15 36.035/1
2016 - Brendon Steele -18 75.074/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Procure Championship?

We now have ten years of course form to survey, so here's the top-three and ties at the last ten editions with the following stats - Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Scrambling, Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting.

2023
1 Sahith Theegala -21 DD 23 DA 47 GIR 29 SC 7 PA 1 SGP 2
2 SH Kim -19 DD 18 DA 12 GIR 28 SC 1 PA 12 SGP 13
3 Cam Davis -17 DD 11 DA 8 GIR 43 SC 2 PA 4 SGP 7

2022
1 Max Homa -16 DD 34 DA 7 GIR 17 SC 3 PA 13 SGP 15
2 Danny Willett -15 DD 43 DA 47 GIR 10 SC 2 PA 11 SGP 7
3 Taylor Montgomery -13 DD 38 DA 64 GIR 67 SC 13 PA 1 SGP 1

2021
1 Max Homa -19 DD 22 DA 7 GIR 19 SC 42 PA 2 SGP 14
2 Maverick McNealy -18 DD 13 DA 29 GIR 10 SC 61 PA 1 SGP 13
3 Mito Pereira -16 DD 11 DA 1 GIR 3 SC 31 PA 33 SGP 42

2020
1 Stewart Cink -21 DD 11 DA 24 GIR 1 SC 2 PA 52 SGP 13
2 Harry Higgs -19 DD 21 DA 48 GIR 59 SC 17 PA 5 SGP 17
T3 Chez Reavie -18 DD 61 DA 1 GIR 11 SC 34 PA 21 SGP 42
T3 Doc Redman -18 DD 54 DA 5 GIR 40 SC 21 PA 8 SGP 24
T3 Kevin Streelman -18 DD 49 DA 20 GIR 11 SC 49 PA 3 SGP 12
T3 Brian Stuard -18 DD 55 DA 13 GIR 15 SC 5 PA 18 SGP 16

2019
1 Cameron Champ -17 DD 1 DA 21 GIR 10 SC 1 PA 38 SGP 1
2 Adam Hadwin -16 DD 46 DA 29 GIR 1 SC 37 PA 12 SGP 4
3 Marc Leishman -14 DD 8 DA 18 GIR 20 SC 5 PA 47 SGP 2

2018
1 Kevin Tway -15 DD 14 DA 40 GIR 18 SC 1 PA 22 SGP 18
T2 Ryan Moore -15 DD 59 DA 1 GIR 2 SC 24 PA 18 SGP 6
T2 Brandt Snedeker -15 DD 33 DA 30 GIR 40 SC 42 PA 1 SGP 2

2017
1 Brendan Steele -15 DD 1 DA 3 GIR 4 SC 7 PA 60 SGP 29
2 Tony Finau -13 DD 11 DA 39 GIR 52 SC 10 PA 16 SGP 16
T3 Chesson Hadley -12 DD 7 DA 24 GIR 47 SC 48 PA 1 SGP 9
T3 Phil Mickelson -12 DD 45 DA 74 GIR 32 SC 44 PA 3 SGP 19

2016
1 Brendan Steele -18 DD 23 DA 5 GIR 21 SC 4 PA 8 SGP 6
2 Patton Kizzire -17 DD 35 DA 67 GIR 21 SC 21 PA 4 SGP 1
T3 Paul Casey -16 DD 10 DA 34 GIR 35 SC 2 PA 6 SGP 29
T3 Michael Kim -16 DD 50 DA 34 GIR 16 SC 12 PA 5 SGP 18
T3 Scott Piercy -16 DD 12 DA 29 GIR 7 SC 48 PA 8 SGP 4
T3 Johnson Wagner -16 DD 42 DA 29 GIR 9 SC 9 PA 9 SGP 8.

2015
1 Emiliano Grillo -15 DD 37 DA 8 GIR 16 SC 5 PA 41 SGP 61
2 Kevin Na -15 DD 30 DA 5 GIR 10 SC 40 PA 12 SGP 51
T3 Jason Bohn -14 DD 64 DA 5 GIR 1 SC 71 PA 4 SGP 39
T3 Justin Thomas -14 DD 25 DA 67 GIR 2 SC 23 PA 11 SGP 19
T3 Tyrone Van Aswegen -14 DD 44 DA 31 GIR 10 SC 21 PA 12 SGP 8

2014
1 Sang-Moon Bae -15 DD 26 DA 45 GIR 6 SC 3 PA 18 SGP 44
2 Steven Bowditch -13 DD 17 DA 67 GIR 71 SC 2 PA 12 SGP 9
T3 Retief Goosen -12 DD 29 DA 49 GIR 50 SC 15 PA 14 SGP 1
T3 Martin Laird -12 DD 34 DA 16 GIR 9 SC 1 PA 39 SGP 8
T3 Hunter Mahan -12 DD 21 DA 37 GIR 6 SC 52 PA 6 SGP 16
T3 Hideki Matsuyama -12 DD 25 DA 8 GIR 3 SC 12 PA 22 SGP 45
T3 Bryce Molder -12 DD 64 DA 45 GIR 48 SC 15 PA 2 SGP 12

The driving metrics don't tell us much, but I'd suggest being straight and short is slightly better than long and inaccurate and apart from 2022, when putting was key, the really key stat has been Scrambling.

The first seven course winners ranked inside the top seven for that stat, Stewart Cink ranked second for Scrambling four years ago, and the two winners before him both managed to get up-and-down more often than anyone else.

The front three only ranked 42^nd, 61^st and 31^st for Scrambling in 2022 but the first and second ranked third and second two years ago, last year's front three ranked seventh, first and second and 2022 looks like quite an outlier.

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Is There an Angle In?

Putting on Poa is always a bit tricky, and the locals are often at an advantage on the west coast.

Last year's winner, Sahith Theegala, was born in California, Max Homa, who won the two previous editions, and the 2021 runner-up, Maverick McNealy, the 2019 winner, Cameron Champ, and the two-time winner, Brendan Steele, are all Californians and we've also seen California's Phil Mickelson contend too, so that's something to consider and from a course correlation angle, form at TPC San Antonio, home of the Texas Open, and Waialae, home of the Sony Open, look worthy of consideration.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

The last two winners have been well backed. Despite looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, Sahith Theegala was gambled into 18.017/1 12 months ago and Max Homa went off favourite when defending the title two years ago. Jimmy Walker was fairly well-fancied ten years ago (generally a 36.035/1 shot) and Brendon Steele went off at 36.035/1 when successfully defending the title seven years ago, but outsiders have a very fair record.

Homa was an 80.079/1 chance three years ago and the three winners before him went off at triple-figure prices. And so too did Sang-Moon Bae ten years ago and the 2011 winner, Bryce Molder, so despite the result of the last two editions, this is definitely somewhere you can take a chance on an outsider or two.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Sahith Theegala led by two strokes 2.588/5
2022 - Max Homa - T2 - trailing by one 3.3512/5
2021 - Max Homa - T3 - trailing by two 10.09/1
2020 - Stewart Cink T7 - trailing by two 42.041/1
2019 - Cameron Champ led by three strokes 2.6413/8
2018 - Kevin Tway second - trailing by three strokes 7.26/1
2017 - Brendan Steele T3 - trailing by three 6.411/2
2016 - Brendan Steele T6 - trailing by four 32.031/1

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In-Play Tactics

Only three of the ten editions staged here have been won by the 54-hole leader or co-leader so taking on the frontrunner or runners on Sunday makes sense and this is a venue at which winning from off the pace is perfectly possible.

Theegala was in front after rounds two and three last year and Homa was inside the top two places all week long in 2022. and he was matched at odds-on during round two, but we still witnessed the most remarkable of finishes two years ago.

Pre-event 270.0269/1 chance, Danny Willett, took a one-stroke lead into the 72^nd hole and after both he and Homa had played three strokes on the par five 18^th hole, victory looked assured for Englishman.

Over £14k was matched on Willett at 1.011/100 and someone managed to get £2 matched on Homa at 1000.0999/1.

Left of the green and 32 feet from the pin after a poor bunker shot with his third, Homa looked well and truly cooked. The defending champ trailed by a stroke and Willett had less than four feet for his birdie four but then this happened...

CHAOS on the 72nd hole to start the season

A hole-out and a 3-putt on the final hole made for a WILD finish @FortinetChamp. pic.twitter.com/tiSwSoEno4

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 19, 2022

That was far and away the most incredible finish here and one of the most amazing finales ever witnessed on the PGA Tour but Willett wasn't the first to get beat after trading at long odds-on we've seen winners here come from much further back too...

Brandt Snedeker began the final round with a three-stroke lead six years ago and after birdies at five and seven, he opened up a five-stroke advantage. He was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 but he soon lost his grip on the title and he was eventually beaten in extra time.

Cameron Champ was never more than three strokes back or outside the top-five five years ago and the 2018 winner, Kevin Tway, was five, four and three strokes adrift after rounds one, two and three, so he was never too far away either, but Ryan Moore trailed by seven with a round to go before getting into the playoff with Tway and Snedeker in 2018.

Brendan Steele was always up there in 2017 but Chesson Hadley, who began the final round just a stroke behind the 54-hole leader, Tyler Duncan, was tied for 61^st after round one, before a course-record 61 in round two moved him up to third at halfway.

Sang-Moon Bae was always on the premises ten years ago and he was four clear after 54 holes but the runner-up, Stephen Bowditch, was tied for 80^th after round one and he was still six adrift and tied for 36^th at halfway.

Emiliano Grillo was six back and tied for 19^th at halfway when he won nine years ago and the first nine home were all outside the top-five through 36 holes.

Homa was matched at a high of 240.0239/1, after a poor second round saw him trail by seven in a tie for 24^th at halfway in 2021, the 2020 winner, Stewart Cink, trailed by eight at halfway and finally, Steele was nine strokes adrift at halfway and still four back with a round to go when he won here for the first time eight years ago.

If the leaderboard looks tight going into Sunday's final round, a late night's trading may reap rewards but it's worth noting that the finish is much easier after the rerouting of the course and that Theegala won with no late dramas 12 months ago.

It's tough around the turn, with holes nine, 10 and 11 ranking as the third, seventh and first hardest last year but after that, holes 12-18 ranked 16^th, 12^th 11^th 15^th ninth, sixth and 17^th suggesting a reasonable lead on the back-nine maybe tough to reel in.

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Market Leaders

Brendon Steele and Max Homa have both made successful defences at Silverado so it's hardly surprising to see the market favour last year's winner, Sahith Theegala, ahead of last year's US Open winner, Wyndham Clark.

With course form figures reading 14-47-6-1, Theegala clearly loves it here and following his third-place finish at the Tour Championship, where only Collin Morikawa shot a lower 72-hole total, he's highly likely to contend again but I'm happy to let him go unbacked at less than 12/113.00.

Wyndham Clark has been playing superbly of late but he tends to throw in stretches of clumsy golf to hamper his chances and he too looks a little on the short side given his course form figures aren't great.

Clark's course form figures read a very ordinary 33-MC-MC-30-43 and that's off putting for someone trading at just over 12/113.00.

Corey Connors is the only other man in the field trading at less than 25.024/1 but he makes less appeal than the front two.

With current form figures reading 27-10-25-9-50-22 and course form numbers reading 30-MC-13-MC, the 32-year-old Canadian doesn't look primed for a good week although he does have some impressive recent Scrambling numbers.

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Selection

I've got one here for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, which should be published this afternoon, but for now my only pre-event pick is Canada's Mackenzie Hughes.

The two-time PGA Tour winner has gone off the boil fractionally after his 16^th place finish at the Open Championship, finishing 19^th at the 3M Open, 28^th in the Wyndham Championship and only 58^th at the FedEx St Jude Championship, which saw him fail to progress to the BMW Championship, but he's a decent scrambler and he's shown an aptitude for the venue.

Hughes shot four rounds in the 60s when finishing 13^th on debut back in 2016 and although that's his best effort at Silverado to date, I thought he was worth chancing modestly at 60.059/1.

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Now read my Irish Open preview here

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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