Irish Open: Rory an uneasy favourite

• Rory looking to win his second Irish Open

• Greens In Regulation the key stat in 2015

• Read my Procure Championship preview here

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Tournament History

The Irish Open has had a bit of a chequered history. There have been spells when the event wasn't played at all and there were even a few years in the 1970s when it was known as the Carroll's International, but it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since 1974.

It's a nomadic event and this year we're returning to the 2015 venue, Royal County Down Golf Course, for the 69th edition.

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Venue

Royal County Down Golf Course, Newcastle, Co Down, Northen Ireland

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,186 yards

With the mountains of Mourne as a backdrop, Royal County Down is set in a spectacular location and we're in for a real treat this week.

George L. Baillie, a Scottish schoolteacher who came to Belfast and quickly embarked on a personal crusade to establish golf courses, was mainly responsible for the original nine-hole layout here, which opened way back in March 1889.

Old Tom Morris designed the second nine soon after and Harry Colt advised on further improvements to the course in 1925.

Royal County Down

"The golf course you play in your dreams."#AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/DoQcN3MGAW

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 10, 2024

Tiger Woods and Tom Watson have played the course in preparation for the Open championship and Rory McIlroy is a frequent visitor.

Royal County Down is a scenic but very tough links with thick and penal rough.

The greens are fast and domed shaped and the 'bearded' bunkers feature overhanging lips of grass and heather.

There are many blind shots, and the course is very often protected by windy weather.

It proved to be a fabulous test back in 2015 when only five players finished the week under-par.

In addition to hosting this event nine years ago, Royal County Down was also the venue for the Senior British Open in 2000, 2001 and 2002.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday and 8:00 on Friday, so we can probably assume Rory McIlroy is going to be drawn PM-AM.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

2023 - Vincent Norrman -14 60.059/1
2022 - Adrian Meronk -20 40.039/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert -19 55.054/1
2020 - John Catlin -10 65.064/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -16 10.09/1
2018 - Russell Knox -14 (playoff) 28.027/1
2017 - Jon Rahm -24 17.5
2016 - Rory McIlroy -12 5.49/2

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The Tale of 2015

Wet and windy weather caused havoc at the 2015 edition of the Irish Open at Royal County Down and the tournament developed into a war of attrition over the weekend.

Pre-event 340.0339/1 chance, Soren Kjeldsen, led by two strokes with a round to go before eventually winning a three-man playoff after a five-over-par 76 on Sunday.

Rafa Cabrera Bello and Max Kieffer had sat tied for second through 54 holes, but they slipped to tied fourth and tied eighth with rounds of 75 and 77 respectively before Kjeldsen got the better of Eddie Pepperell and Bernd Wiesberger in extra time.

Wiesberger had started round four three strokes behind Kjeldsen and tied for fourth, but Pepperell came from seven back and tied 12^th.

Here's the top five finishers from 2015 with scores and traditional stats.

Soren Kjeldsen -2 DD: 28, DA: 5, GIR: 18, SC: 5 PA: 19
Eddie Pepperell -2 DD: 44, DA: 52, GIR: 4, SC: 2 PA: 38
Bernd Wiesberger -2 DD: 1, DA: 55, GIR: 37, SC: 22 PA: 14
Rafa Cabrera Bello -1 DD: 40, DA: 25, GIR: 1, SC: 36 PA: 52
Tyrrell Hatton -1 DD: 19, DA: 19, GIR: 15, SC: 28 PA: 20

DD= Driving Distance
DA= Driving Accuracy
GIR=Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

Kjeldsen and Pepperell scrambled well and Wiesberger, who hit it further than anyone else off the tee, ranked better than any of the other top five finishers for Putting Average but he only ranked 14^th and Greens In Regulation was arguably the most important stat.

Lucas Bjerregaard, who finished tied for 18^th, played the par threes in three-under-par and that was quite remarkable given how tough they played but he only played the long holes in one-under-par.

Kjeldsen played the par fives in four-under-par and Wiesberger managed eight under so picking up strokes on the three par fives (holes one, 12 and 18) proved vital.

The first and 12^th were the two easiest holes on the course nine years ago and I suspect they will be again this year but 18 averaged over-par at 5.11.

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Look to Links Form

As always with a tournament staged on a links layout, previous links form is a huge plus, so the usual rules apply; look at form at this event in 2009, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Scottish Open over the last 13 years, the 2019 British Masters from Hillside Links, the Open Championship, and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship for clues. Links golf is quite unique and those events have all been staged on links courses.

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Saturday at Crans could provide clues

Although completely different to a links layout, the gorgeous mountain layout at Crans, which hosted last week's European Masters, has produced many a winner with an abundance of links form.

Open winners Ernie Els and Seve Ballesteros have both tasted victory at Crans, Rory McIlroy has twice lost in extra time there, and Crans winners, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Thomas Bjorn, Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood and Costantino Rocca have all gone close in at least one Open Championship.

An ability to handle windy conditions is essential around an exposed links layout and the swirling mountain breezes confuse plenty so that probably explains the link and the field at last week's European Masters were tested to the max in round three.

The field averaged 74.14 in round three, more than four strokes over the par of 70 and only three men broke par.

Bernd Wiesberger, who lost in the playoff here nine years ago, traded at long odds-on (hit a low of 1.121/8) to win the 2021 edition of the European Masters at Crans and he was one those to handle the tough conditions there well on Saturday. The Austrian managed a one-over-par 71, a score bettered by just four men, so with plenty of wind in the forecast, anyone that played well in Switzerland last week, and on Saturday in particular, may be worthy of close consideration here.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Rory is going to be very well-fancied this week as he attempts to win the event for a second time and we've seen some very high-quality multiple winners of the Irish Open, with the 2021 US Open champ, Jon Rahm, who won the title in 2017 and 2019, the latest to win the event more than once.

In total, 11 players have won the Irish Open on more than one occasion and Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Seve Ballesteros, and Colin Montgomerie have all won the title three times.

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In-Play Tactics

The first hole at Royal County Down is a par five that ranked as the easiest hole on the course in 2015 and the second hole, a par four, was the ninth hardest hole nine years ago but the players go through a tough spell after that with holes three to nine ranking as six of the hardest seven holes in 2015.

The par four 15^th was the hardest hole on the course nine years ago but the back nine is easier than the front nine and the last three holes - two short par fours and a par five - offer up a chance to score.

In benign conditions, making up ground is tough on links layouts and three of the four course winners this century was in front at halfway.

The odd man out was Ian Stanley, who won the British Senior Open in 2001, but he only sat fourth and two off the lead at halfway and all four course winners were within two strokes of the lead after the first round.

It's a very different scenario when the wind blows though, and the early forecasts suspect it will do.

As already highlighted, Eddie Pepperell made up a lot of ground in the tough conditions in round four nine years ago and blustery conditions always create volatile leaderboards.

It's still very early days to be giving the weather forecasts too much credence but there does look like there might be a bias in favour of those drawn PM-AM with the wind predicted to be at its lightest on Friday morning.

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Market Leaders

Rory McIlroy heads the market, but he's been on the slide since it first opened.

He signed off the Tour Championship with a bogey-free five-under-par 66 to climb into a tie for ninth when last sighted but he hasn't been in the best of form since he lost his way in round four at Paris National when he looked in line for an Olympic medal.

Although he missed the cut here in 2015, after opening the event with a nine-over-par 80 in round one, Rory knows the venue well so that's a big plus, but his event form is extremely strange, with figures reading MC-7-50-35-34-10-MC-MC-MC-1-MC-28-59-16. I'm happy to swerve him.

Shane Lowry returns to links golf for the first time since he lost his way at the Open Championship in July, where he eventually finished sixth, having traded at a low of 2.486/4 when he led by three strokes during round three.

Although he won the Zurich Classic alongside Rory in April his sole individual success since winning the Open in 2019 came in the weather-shortened BMW PGA Championship two years ago and he looks short enough to me at less than 14/115.00.

Aaron Rai won the Scottish Open in 2020 so we know he loves a links layout. He recently won the Wyndham Championship after a late collapse by Max Greyserman who hit a low of 1.061/18 in-running.

That was Rai's first success on the PGA Tour but his first win anywhere since he'd won the Scottish so I'm in absolutely no rush to side with him at less than 20/121.00.

Matt Cooper's fancy, Robert MacIntyre, looks the best value towards the head of the market and he was the one I came closest to siding with.

As Matt highlights, he's a quite brilliant links exponent, and he signed off the Tour Championship with a seven-under-par 64 last time out, despite opening the round with a bogey five.

Prior to that, he'd withdrawn from the BMW Championship during round three citing lower back pain, so that's possibly a slight risk, and I'm happy to leave him out before the off.

I'll be back later today with a couple of selections for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, but nobody really grabbed my attention at a double-figure price.

I may back Andrew Johnston if he drifts before the off. He's another great links player and he played very nicely last week in Switzerland, but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.

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Now read my Procure Championship Preview here

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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