The Punter's De-Brief: Shinkwin breaks his duck and Gay wins again

The Cyprus Open had looked wide-open going into the last day yesterday and it was a tight affair throughout the fourth and final round.

Playing in his 509th event and still in search of his first win, 45-year-old Scot, David Drysdale took up the running early on with three birdies in the first five holes but a double-bogey five at the par three seventh stopped him in his tracks and it was pre-event 36.035/1 chance, Sami Valimaki, that took over.

The 22-year-old Finn played his first 11 holes in six-under-par and he was matched at a low of 1.635/8 before he too fell away with bogeys at 13, 15 and 16 and after a three-under-par front nine, fellow Finn, Kalle Samooja, a pre-tournament 100.099/1 shot, took up the running with three birdies in four after the turn.

Anyone that backed Samooja, who was matched at a low of 1.422/5, can feel extremely aggrieved as he did nothing wrong at all after that run of birdies and if it wasn't for an incredible finish by Callum Shinkwin, he'd have won his first European Tour title.

Out of form and in search of his first European Tour title in his 112th event, Shinkwin, who was generally a 200.0199/1 shot before the off (matched at between 140.0139/1 and 280.0279/1), was still a 26.025/1 chance with a round to go, despite trailing by just two strokes. And he never really looked like winning until he birdied the 17th hole and did this at 18...

From 54 feet

Callum Shinkwin sets the clubhouse lead at 20 under with an eagle on the 18th. #CyprusOpen pic.twitter.com/q9QBI9y2aa

? The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) November 1, 2020

Shinkwin's eagle meant he came home in just 29 strokes to fire an eight under-par 63 - the lowest round of the week - and it was admirable how Samooja responded.

Shinkwin was matched at just 1.211/5 when he sat in the clubhouse with a one-stroke lead, with Samooja looking at a ten foot par putt on the tough 16th, but the Finn rolled the par save in confidently, parred the 17th and made birdie at the 18th to take the tournament into extra-time.

Having had a long wait and a sizable bite to eat in the clubhouse, I thought Shinkwin looked nervous once Samooja had drawn level but you couldn't fault his performance in the playoff.

Both players hit great drives and both hit their second shots to the back of the green. Samooja's rested against the fringe and Shinkwin's found the back bunker and it looked like it was advantage Samooja after their third shots but Shinkin holed to pile the pressure on and the Finn couldn't respond.

Callum Shinkwin is a European Tour winner!#CyprusOpen pic.twitter.com/svKxkJ4nX8

? The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) November 1, 2020

The Bermuda Championship wasn't anywhere near as competitive as the Cyprus Open but it panned out in much the same fashion.

Pre-event 100.099/1 chance, Wyndham Clark, who was matched at a high of 110.0109/1 before the get-go, birdied seven of the first 11 holes to assume command in round four and he spent much of the back nine trading at long odds-on but 48-year-old Brian Gay, who like Shinkwin, had trailed by two and traded at 26.025/1 before round four, kept making inroads into Clark's lead and when he made back-to-back birdies at 14 and 15, he got to within one.

Gay, who was a 330.0329/1 chance before the off, was then matched at just 1.558/15 after he hit a decent drive on the par five 17th, as Clark was making a mess of the tough par three 16th. Clark's tee-shot found the greenside bunker and he did well in the end to make a bogey four, after a duffed shot from the sand left him plenty to do.

With the pair tied, Gay then three-putted the 17th for a bogey six and Clark hit a low of 1.11/10 but the tenacious veteran stuck at it and birdied the 18th. Clark missed birdie chances at 17 and 18 and we were into extra time again.

Again, it looked like advantage Clark but just like the first playoff of the day, when Shinkwin had holed before Samooja missed, Gay holed his birdie putt from slightly further away and Clark missed his. They were two classic match play moments at the end of two intriguing stroke play tournaments.

After forcing a playoff with a birdie on 18, @BrianGayPGA came right back and did it again in the playoff to clinch his first win in 7 years pic.twitter.com/ibv6ywoVBg

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 1, 2020

My Bets

It looked like being a horrible week but all's well that ends well.

Having witnessed players getting beat in each of the last two European Tour events, having traded at long odds-on - 1.341/3 (Laurie Canter in Italy) and 1.374/11 (Matt Wallace in Scotland) - and having written this in the Cyprus Open preview, "looking to lay anyone at odds-on could well pay dividends again", I got stuck in yesterday and it paid off.

There were all sorts of twists and turns but the big plus was getting Shinkwin onside modestly at around 18.017/1 as he'd parred the 16th. Obviously, with his birdie-eagle finish, I got lucky but it was always my intention to trade the position and having thought Shinkwin looked nervous, I favoured his opponent in extra time and victory for the Finn would have been a better result in the end.

Over at the Bermuda Championship, I'd backed my Find Me a 100 Winner selection, Hudson Swafford, at 190.0189/1, and set a lay target of 10.09/1. He got himself in the mix when he birdied the first four holes in round two before hitting an awful run but the lowest that he traded at was 10.519/2. Sod's law. And 65.064/1 pre-event pick, Stewart Cink frustrated too. He eventually finished tied for fourth on -12 but he'd have been in the playoff if he'd have shot level par on Friday instead of a three-over par 74.

As highlighted in the In-Play Blog, I had a small bet on Gay at 28.027/1 on Saturday night and although I layed him back twice, at 1.758/11 after his drive on 17, and at 2.0421/20 before the playoff, it was still a nice result.

Gay ticked the boxes

We've only had two editions of the Bermuda Championship but some strong trends are emerging. Both winners have been veterans that hadn't won in ages and both have also won the Mayakoba Golf Classic. And Gay boosted the correlating course form link at the Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic angle in too.

He has three top-tens at Waialae (home of the Sony), he won the RBC at Harbour Town by a record ten strokes in 2009, and he has a fourth and a third in the RSM Classic at Sea Island.

I really enjoyed the venue for the Cyprus Open and we don't have much of a wait to see it again. The PGA National Cyprus at the Aphrodite Hills Resort will host this week's Cyprus Showdown and I'll be back later today or tomorrow with my preview.

Over on the PGA Tour, with the US Masters now just ten days away, we visit Texas for the Houston Open and I'll preview that one tomorrow but in the meantime, Matt Cooper has had a little look at how the US Masters market is shaping up and Dave Tindall has looked at the US Masters ten year trends.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter