The Punter's De-brief: Brilliant Billy denies luckless Rory at Wentworth

• Four players traded at odds-on

• Rory denied by yet more brilliance

• Read Steve's Open de Espana preview here

Matt Cooper's each-way fancy Matteo Manassero began the final round of the BMW PGA Championship leading by three and after a scrambled par at the first hole in round four and a birdie at the third, he looked far and away the most likely winner.

The Italian was matched at 1.9420/21 in-running but a bogey at the easy par five fourth (a hole that averaged 4.18 throughout the week) was a sign of what was to come and Manassero never really got going.

His lead was reduced to one by the turn and he was caught and passed by Aaron Rai after he'd bogeyed the 10^th and the Englishman had birdied the 12^th.

Rai was matched at a low of 2.6613/8 but his challenge petered out with a string of pars and a bogey at the last as my pre-event pick Thriston Lawrence put in a brilliant charge.

The South African had began the final round trailing by five but chip in birdies at one and two set the tone for his day and he momentarily hit the front with a birdie at the par three 14^th.

Lawrence hit a wide drive off the tough 15^th tee, but he got a decent lie in the rough so was able to make par.

By contrast, Horschel, who was playing in the final group behind Lawrence, had drawn alongside the South African with a birdie at the 14^th, had to chop out of the rough right of the fairway at 15 following a poor drive and while all that was going on, Lawrence drained his birdie putt at 16 from 26 feet.

The first player to -20! @ThristonL takes the solo lead at Wentworth.#BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/EPBKTXkuR6

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 22, 2024

Having drifted all the way out to 80.079/1 before he teed off on Thursday afternoon, and having been matched in- running at as high as 130.0129/1, Lawrence was now trading at less than 1.51/2.

His lead was two after Horschel had bogeyed the 15^th and with two par fives to finish at 17 and 18, he looked in control.

Horschel missed the 16^th green with his approach and Rory emerged as the South African's biggest threat following a great approach at the same hole.

Lawrence had hit a low of 1.3130/100 after his second shot finished just shy of the green on the par five 17^th but he had to settle for a par there after a scruffy chip. After Horschel and Rory both parred 16, Lawrence led by two with just one hole to play.

Lawrence hit a nice drive at 18 but before he'd made his decision to lay up, Rory had drawn alongside him with a spectacular eagle from 46 feet at 17 and we had a new odds-on favourite.

After his scrambled par at 16, Horschel birdied the 17^th from just inside 10 feet to get to within one of the leaders. But after Lawrence's birdie attempt finished a painful roll short of the hole on 18, and Rory had hit a brilliant drive, the Northern Irishman looked the most likely to lift the trophy. He was matched at a low of just 1.282/7.

Rory's attempt to find the green in two was so bad it finished short of the water in front of the green. Having been matched at a high of 42.041/1 just a few minutes earlier, Horschel was back in the game.

Rory failed to get up-and-down for his birdie four, Horschel made his from inside four feet, and after a quite brilliant afternoon of drama, we had a three-man playoff to look forward to.

Lawrence was eliminated at the first extra hole, when he found water with his third shot, and after Rory and McIlroy had both birdied the first extra hole, after a pair of brilliant up-and-down birdies, Horschel claimed the prize in dramatic style with this eagle three at the second extra hole.

The eagle lands for @BillyHo_Golf

He makes eagle on the second play-off hole to beat McIlroy after the Northern Irishman made birdie. #BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/QOnelwFomu

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 22, 2024

Course form stands up really well at Wentworth. Although Horschel, who was generally a 25.024/1 chance before the off, is the first player to win the BMW PGA Championship twice since Luke Donald won here back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, having won it for the first time in 2021, he may well be worth following here again.

Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times.

Luckless Rory a Great Trading Vehicle

As someone whose only wagers before Sunday had been Lawrence before the off and Rory at halfway, the final outcome wasn't what I'd hoped foe. With the ability to trade and to lay back selections on the Betfair Exchange, however, it was still a very good week.

I didn't lay back Rory, but I did Lawrence (at 2.89/5 and 1.75/7) and I also backed Horschel after Lawrence had been eliminated in extra-time and anyone who's backed the unfortunate Rory over the last two weeks should be nicely in profit really.

The world number three did little wrong at Royal County Down, and he was even more unfortunate at Wentworth, but given he traded at just 1.211/5 in his homeland and 1.282/7 in Surrey, there's no excuses for not making money for anyone who backed him before the off.

As demonstrated yesterday, when four players traded at odds-on, all sorts of drama happens week after week and laying odds-on shots, or laying back your selections at odds-on in-running, often pays dividends.

With the Presidents Cup starting on Thursday, there's no PGA Tour event this week but the DP World Tour takes in the Open de Espana.

Now read my Open de Espana preview here