Open de Espana: Rahm a fair price to go in again

• Rahm heads a strong line up in Madrid

• Course form counts for plenty at Club de Campo

• Read Steve's full in-depth preview now

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Tournament History

The Open de Espana dates all the way back to 1912 and apart from 2017, when it was missing from the schedule, and 2020, when it was lost to the pandemic, it's been a regular on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.

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Strong Line-up in Madrid

Jon Rahm will be the warm favourite, having officially appealed against his DP World Tour sanctions in order to play this week, but he's far from the only star in attendance in Madrid.

Another LIV golfer, Tyrrell Hatton, and high-class Englishmen, Tommy Fleetwood and Aaron Rai, are also in the line-up, along with Austrian PGA Tour star, Sepp Straka, and the 2019 Open winner, Shane Lowry.

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Venue

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7154 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 69.74

The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is a traditional inland course that sits 2,500 feet above sea level. It's a hilly course with sloping tree-lined fairways and well-bunkered, undulating greens.

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has been the host course for the last four editions of this event and prior to that it was last seen on the DP World Tour back in 2008 when it hosted the first of four editions of the now defunct Madrid Masters, won by Charl Schwartzel.

It was also the venue for the now defunct Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005 and it also hosted this event in 1996, as well as the final edition of another now defunct event, the Turespaña Masters in 2000.

It's a short track and in benign conditions, it can succumb to some very low scores. Ross McGowan opened the 2021 edition with a ten-under-par 61 and Marcel Siem signed off last year's edition with a 61. And Jon Rahm shot a nine-under-par 62 in round four when winning the event for a third time two years ago.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday.

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Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2020 - Matthieu Pavon -23 120.0119/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -25 3.55/2
2021 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello -19 (playoff) 110.0109/1
2020 - Tournament Cancelled
2019 - Jon Rahm -22 4.03/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -20 5.04/1
2017 - No Tournament
2016 - Andrew Johnston +1 140.0139/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Open de Espana?

Here's the last 12 course winners, together with their winning scores and whatever traditional stats I could obtain.

2023 Open de Espana
Matthieu Pavon -25 DD: 20, DA: 20, GIR: 28, SC: 3, PA: 4

2022 Open de Espana
Jon Rahm -25 DD: 2, DA: 27, GIR: 12, SC: 7, PA: 2

2021 Open de Espana
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -19 DD: 52, DA: 20, GIR: 25, SC: 2, PA: 22

2019 Open de Espana
Jon Rahm -22 DD: 1, DA: 3, GIR: 12, SC: 3, PA: 1

2008 Madrid Masters
Charl Schwartzel -19 DD: 21, DA: 10, GIR: 2, SC: 6, PA: 20

2005 Open de Madrid
Raphael Jacquelin -23 DD: 10, DA: 23, GIR: 34, SC: 10, PA: 1

2004 Open de Madrid
Richard Sterne -18 DD: 2, DA: 61, GIR: 22, SC: 14, PA: 5

2003 Open de Madrid
Ricardo Gonzalez -14 DD: 4, DA: 66, GIR: 10, SC: n/a, PA: n/a

2002 Open de Madrid
Steen Tinning -19 DD: 60, DA: 1, GIR: 2, SC: n/a, PA: n/a

2001 Open de Madrid
Retief Goosen -20 DD: 26, DA: 55, GIR: 1, SC: n/a, PA: n/a

2000 Turespaña Masters
Padraig Harrington -17 DD: 13, DA: 94, GIR: 19, SC: n/a, PA: n/a

1996 Open de Espana
Padraig Harrington -16 No Stats

DD = Diving Distance
DA = Driving Accuracy
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

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Jon Rahm has finished first and second for Putting Average on the two occasions he's won here and when he's finished down the field it's been the putter thats held him back.

Accurate iron play is clearly important given 34^th is the worst any of the last 11 winners has ranked for Greens In Regulation and Scrambling has often been a key stat too but the data is limited.

We've had Strokes Gained stats for the last four editions here but the only thing that really stands out is SG: Tee-to-Green with the winners ranking first, third, first and 15^th.

Pavon advertised the importance of a strong game on and around the dancefloors last year, ranking first for SG: Around the Green and SG: Putting.

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Course form key at Club de Campo

Rahm has won here twice and Pavon had finished second in 2022, before winning last year, but the 2021 edition is as good a guide as any to highlight just how well course form stands up here. Cabrera-Bello beat Adri Arnaus in extra time and the pair had finished second and fourth behind Rahm in the 2019 edition.

Like Rahm, Padraig Harrington has won here twice, and he was second behind Ricardo Gonzalez in 2003 before Gonzalez finished second to Charl Schwartzel in 2008. Rafael Jacquelin was fourth the year before he won here, Retief Goosen had course form figures reading 11-1-7, Brian Davis finished third in 2001 and second in 2002 and Paul Lawrie played here six times and finished inside the top-six three times.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Pavon broke a run of four straight victories for the Spanish, but he has Spanish roots. The Frenchman's grandfather was from Madrid, but he moved to France after the Spanish Civil War.

Although Rahm has won three of the last five renewals, the home contingent hasn't always shone, and lower ranking Spaniards have a terrible record.

Since Seve won his third and final Open de Espana way back in 1995, only five Spaniards have taken the title and they've all been straight out of the top-drawer.

In addition to Rahm and Cabrera-Bello, Sergio Garcia won it in 2002, Alvaro Quiros in 2010 and Miguel Angel Jimenez's 21^st and final DP World Tour title came in this tournament ten years ago. If you've picked out a couple of low-profile Spaniards, previous results suggest you better think again.

An Englishman has won two of the last seven renewals and British and Irish players have a decent record in this event, but three South Africans have won at this venue and Zander Lombard has finished fourth and second in each of the last two years.

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Great Event for Longshots

Jon Rahm has won three of the last five editions but him apart, outsiders have flourished in this event lately.

James Morrison was a 500.0499/1 chance when winning in 2015, Andrew Johnston went off at 140.0139/1 in 2015, Cabrera-Bello was a 110.0109/1 shot three years ago and Pavon was generally a 120.0119/1 chance before the off last year.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Matthieu Pavon - led by two 2.6413/8
2022 - Jon Rahm - led by a stroke 1.715/7
2021 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello - led by two 2.546/4
2020 - Tournament Cancelled
2019 - Jon Rahm - solo fourth, trailing by two 3.02/1

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In-Play Tactics

Pavon won wire-to-wire last year and Jon Rahm was inside the top five places all week long when he won here in 2021. And he sat inside the top four places all week in 2019 when he won here for the first time.

The two course winners before Rahm were both within two of the lead after round one and in front after rounds two and three and Padraig Harrington was never headed after 36 holes in both 1996 and 2000, but a slow start can be overcome.

The 2021 playoff protagonists, Cabrera-Bello and Adri Arnaus, both trailed by six after round one, as did Ricardo Gonzalez (2003) and Richard Sterne (2004). And Gonzalez trailed by 11 at halfway and by six with a round to go!

The first three holes have averaged over-par in each of the last four editions so it's a slightly tricky start but it's not a tough track by any means and a fast finish is possible.

Grant Forrest flew home at the end in 2021, playing the last seven holes in seven-under-par to grab a share of third and Marcel Siem shot 61 in round four last year so it's the sort of venue at which a late run can be made.

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Rahm a fair price to go in again

Jon Rahm returns to Madrid in tip-top form and he's a perfectly fair price at anything over 3/14.00.

Having finished a respectable seventh in the Open, he won the LIV Golf UK event and since folding tamely at the Olympics in Paris in round four, where he traded at as low as 1.182/11, he's finished second in West Virginia and won in Illinois on the LIV Golf Tour.

With tournament figures reading 1-1-17-1-9, it's clearly an event he takes extremely seriously.

He was never at the races last year but he sat second at halfway when 17^th in 2021 and it's very hard to imagine him not contending given how well he's playing at present.

I'll have at least two longshots for the Find Me a 100 Winner column on Tuesday or Wednesday and I'm also following Matt Cooper in with Ewen Ferguson, who looks very generously priced on the Exchange at 70.069/1.

As Matt highlights, Ferguson has shown a reasonable level of form in each of his last two starts and his iron play was certainly on point on Sunday when he ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green when shooting a bogey-free four-under-par 68 around Wentworth in round four of the BMW PGA Championship to finish tied for 18th.

Had he holed a few more putts on Sunday he would have garnered more attention so he's a juicy price and the fact that he was ninth here on debut last year bodes well too.

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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